Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 190517 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring clouds to the area along with some rain and breezy conditions for areas south and east of the Capital District Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected to be fair, dry and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... The ridging across the region slowly weakens and shifts northeastward as Jose moves up the east coast. Fair weather is expected for the overnight. High level clouds associated with Jose will continue to stream across mainly the southeastern part of the forecast area over some low level stratus clouds. Where skies remain mostly clear to partly clouds fog will form as radiational cooling takes place. The fog may become dense in places. It will be another mild and muggy night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The exact track of Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive, but Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Based on the current forecast track chances for rain will be on the increase Tuesday from the southeast with high chance to likely pops for northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires and southern Taconics. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. Highs Tuesday in 60s southeast to 70s northwest. As for the winds, they will be on the increase especially late in the day Tuesday and at night. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday south and east of the Capital District with northeast winds up to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Again any change in the track of Jose will impact the wind forecast. Wednesday night, any lingering precipitation over extreme southeast Litchfield County should end early in the evening. The rest of the night should be fair with lows in the 50s to around 60. Form formation may be held at bay by lingering northerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. Refer to forecasts and products issued by the National Hurricane Center for details on Jose. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The long-term forecast will exhibit above average (~10 degrees) temperatures and dry weather Thursday through Monday. Outflow from tropical cyclone Jose will enhance the upper-tropospheric ridging over the Northeast and result in surface high pressure. The high pressure and subsidence will result in dry weather with mostly sunny conditions throughout the forecast period with the exception of a bit more skycover Southeast of the Capital Region. High temperatures will begin in the mid to upper 70`s on Thursday and gradually warm into the low to mid 80s by next Monday. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with higher elevations running a few degrees cooler. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tricky forecast for the remainder of the night with respect to coverage of stratus and fog potential. Current satellite imagery and observations show patches of stratus in the 2-4 kft AGL layer. Forecast soundings suggest this is due to moisture trapped beneath a weak inversion, which is also somewhat evident on the 00Z KALY sounding. Should this stratus persist, fog would likely struggle to develop. This TAF package has backed off the fog potential somewhat, but still allowed for periods of fog closer to 08-13Z with TEMPOs conditional upon if any clearing develops. Given the somewhat moist boundary layer, fog is still possible. It would be most likely at KGFL. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will mix out into at BKN MVFR/VFR stratus layer during the late morning hours. A few showers within the outer bands of TC Jose may impact KPSF/KPOU during the afternoon hours. For now, have kept vsby in showers at MVFR as there is still uncertainty with how far west the rain will extend. Winds for the remainder of the night will be light and variable to calm. Winds will become northeast around 5 kt during the day, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt in the evening at KPOU/KPSF. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night through Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure ridging in from Maine will bring mainly fair and mild weather into this evening. Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected to be fair, dry and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Relative humidity values recover to near 100 percent tonight. Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are expected to be even higher 75 to 85 percent south and east of the Capital District with chance for rain with values mainly in the 60s northwest of the Capital District. Light southeasterly winds forecast tonight. Winds will shift to the east and northeast Tuesday and increase during the day with some gusts into the teens Tuesday afternoon across northwestern Connecticut, Berkshires and into the mid Hudson Valley. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected at this time. The exact track of Tropical Cyclone Jose will determine the extent of rainfall the local area will receive this week. At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to around an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry Thursday through the upcoming weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/BGM SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND

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