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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 190503
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring clouds to the area along with
some rain and breezy conditions for areas south and east of the
Capital District Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected
to be fair, dry and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The ridging across the region slowly weakens and shifts northeastward
as Jose moves up the east coast. Fair weather is expected for
the overnight. High level clouds associated with Jose will continue
to stream across mainly the southeastern part of the forecast area
over some low level stratus clouds. Where skies remain mostly clear
to partly clouds fog will form as radiational cooling takes
place. The fog may become dense in places. It will be another
mild and muggy night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The exact track of Jose will determine the extent of rainfall
the local area will receive, but Tropical Cyclone Jose will
bring some rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of
the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Based on the current
forecast track chances for rain will be on the increase Tuesday
from the southeast with high chance to likely pops for
northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires and southern Taconics.
At this time, the current forecast has little if any rain
northwest of the Capital District with amounts ranging from
about a quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District
up to an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in the
track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast. Highs Tuesday
in 60s southeast to 70s northwest.

As for the winds, they will be on the increase especially late
in the day Tuesday and at night. The strongest winds are
expected on Wednesday south and east of the Capital District
with northeast winds up to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Again
any change in the track of Jose will impact the wind forecast.

Wednesday night, any lingering precipitation over extreme
southeast Litchfield County should end early in the evening. The
rest of the night should be fair with lows in the 50s to around
60. Form formation may be held at bay by lingering northerly
winds of 5 to 10 kts.

Refer to forecasts and products issued by the National
Hurricane Center for details on Jose.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long-term forecast will exhibit above average (~10 degrees)
temperatures and dry weather Thursday through Monday. Outflow from
tropical cyclone Jose will enhance the upper-tropospheric ridging
over the Northeast and result in surface high pressure. The high
pressure and subsidence will result in dry weather with mostly sunny
conditions throughout the forecast period with the exception of
a bit more skycover Southeast of the Capital Region. High
temperatures will begin in the mid to upper 70`s on Thursday and
gradually warm into the low to mid 80s by next Monday. Low
temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with
higher elevations running a few degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions at all sites through this evening. Clear sky and
light winds will promote fog and low cloud development between
midnight and daybreak, likely down to IFR and possibly VLIFR
levels. Scattered rain showers and light northeast winds will
develop at KPOU and KPSF toward sunrise. IFR conditions improve
to MVFR through Tuesday morning at KPOU and KPSF. Conditions
improve to VFR Tuesday morning at KALB and KGFL. The best
coverage of scattered showers at KPOU and KPSF should be after
13Z. There may not be any showers near KALB and KGFL until after
18Z Tuesday, at the earliest.

The winds become variable tonight then north to northeast at 5
to 10 Kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night through Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure ridging in from Maine will bring mainly fair and mild
weather into this evening. Tropical Cyclone Jose will bring some
rain and breezy conditions to the southeast part of the forecast
area Tuesday into Wednesday. The weather is expected to be fair, dry
and continued mild Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

Relative humidity values recover to near 100 percent tonight.
Minimum values Tuesday afternoon are expected to be even higher
75 to 85 percent south and east of the Capital District with
chance for rain with values mainly in the 60s northwest of the
Capital District.

Light southeasterly winds forecast tonight. Winds will shift to
the east and northeast Tuesday and increase during the day with
some gusts into the teens Tuesday afternoon across northwestern
Connecticut, Berkshires and into the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.
The exact track of Tropical Cyclone Jose will determine the
extent of rainfall the local area will receive this week. At
this time, the current forecast has little if any rain northwest
of the Capital District with amounts ranging from about a
quarter of an inch in portions of the Capital District up to
around an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change in
the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast.

At this time, the weather is expected to be fair and dry
Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND