Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 171442 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 942 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system positioned just off the Delmarva early this morning, will track northeast to near Cape Cod by this afternoon. This system continues to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to much of the region. The system will move into the Canadian Maritimes this evening, with snow ending across our area during the afternoon. Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday, with some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 930 AM EST, still areas of light to moderate snow across the region, with steadiest snow currently in a band extending from northern Schoharie County into the east central Mohawk Valley, northeast across the Saratoga/Glens Falls region. Snowfall rates of up to an inch/hour will be likely within this band. Elsewhere, snowfall rates generally range from one tenth, to up to one half inch/hour. Based on current radar, and also some prospects for additional snowfall close to the Capital Region due to some possible Mohawk-Hudson convergence, still expect an additional 1-3 inches from the east central Mohawk Valley northeast to the Glens Falls/Saratoga region, southeast into the Capital Region, with mainly less than 2 inches elsewhere. Across the western Adirondacks, some upslope/Lake Enhanced snow could contribute to an additional 1-3 inches, if not locally higher, across portions of northern Herkimer CO through this afternoon. Otherwise, through 8 AM EST, Snowfall accumulations have varied, with generally 4 to 8 inches for areas south and east of Albany, and 2 to 5 from Albany north and west. Still a few to several more hours of light to moderate snow is expected, as the coastal low pressure system tracks from south of Long Island to near Cape Cod this morning. Will keep the current headlines in place without any changes at this time. Lighter snowfall amounts have been reported in southern Vermont, but snow will continue through the morning and into early afternoon with time to reach warning levels. The steadiest snow is expected to continue through the late morning. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east late this morning into early afternoon. However, hints of Hudson- Mohawk convergence noted in the model surface wind fields and forecast reflectivity from the 3km NAM/HRRR/WRF-ARW from around Albany north and east. So will linger mention of likely pops in these areas with an additional half inch to inch of snow this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable for mid January, ranging from lower 20s in the northwest part of the area to lower 30s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A small ridge of high pressure will build in to much of the region tonight, although well-aligned westerly flow and conditional lake- induced instability will lead to some lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks. Snow showers will be light and scattered, due to forecast low inversion heights of only around 850 mb. Elsewhere, it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal with single digits to lower teens. Similar weather expected for Thursday, as a flat ridge of high pressure at the surface will be in place. The continued westerly flow will result in scattered light lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks, but dry elsewhere. High temperatures will be near normal in the 20s to lower 30s. Models in good agreement with a fast-moving and compact short wave trough moving through Thursday night. This will result in mainly isolated to scattered snow showers from around I-90 northward, with the greater coverage across the western/southern Adirondacks. A quick half inch to one inch of snow is expected in these areas. More flat ridging across the region on Friday with mainly dry conditions expected. Some light lake enhanced/upslope snow showers could linger into the western Adirondacks, but most areas will be dry. Tempertures will moderate slightly, with generally upper 20s to mid 30s expected for highs. Tranquil conditions in store for Friday night, with the flat ridge remaining in place. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temperatures expected with a low pressure system passing to our west and north across the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada early next week. Guidance is in general agreement with the longwave pattern featuring nearly zonal flow across the region over the weekend with ridging being induced along the east coast ahead of an approaching closed low Monday. However, there are amplitude and timing differences amongst the models. The ECMWF is deepen and slower with the system however the Weather Prediction Center indicates there was better clustering with the GFS, GEFS mean, EC mean and CMC so this timing was favored for the forecast. Based on this, the greatest chances for precipitation are Monday night. Have the chances for precipitation increasing Sunday night into Monday night. Precipitation types gets complicated as night time lows are expected to be mainly in the 30s Monday night. With uncertainty in both timing and temperature profile have gone with rain and snow forecast however there could be some freezing rain but that`s very difficult to determine that at this time. QPF amounts are very uncertain also. With ice jams in place across area will closely monitor expected temperatures and potential rainfall. With the passage of this system back to seasonable cold temperatures. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Coastal low located south of Long Island with pressure falls occurring it its northeast. The low will continue to track northeastward today and deepen. The steady snow will continue this morning tapering off to snow showers and flurries as we head into and through the afternoon. Snow lingering steady snow possible across the Capital District due to a brief period of Mohawk-Hudson Convergence. IFR and lower conditions through much of the morning hours with an improvement to MVFR expected by early afternoon and VFR by late in the day/early evening. Conditions expected to improve a bit quicker at KPOU. Some cirrus clouds will stream across the region tonight Light to calm winds early this morning with northwest flow developing and increasing to 6 to 10 knots during the day. Winds shifting to the west in the evening. Outlook... Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in place due to the continued cold temperatures over the next few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend. In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is ongoing for much of the area into today, with heavy snowfall from the mid Hudson Valley and Taconics eastward across western New England. Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend except for some lake effect snow showers well north and west of the Capital District. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ001- 013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063-082>084. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ054- 061-064>066. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001- 025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.