Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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327 FXUS61 KALY 192341 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 741 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Jose will remain well offshore of the southeast New England coast into the weekend. Some showers are possible across the southeast forecast area from Jose tonight and Wednesday. But in general high pressure will dominate our weather into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Hurricane Jose continues to inch slowly north at 8 mph this evening as its outer bands of clouds and some showers moving through the Berks, NW CT and southern Taconics. Meanwhile along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary some showers were just upstream of the Dacks. Per the HRRR/RAP13 and experimental GOES-16 data, seems we are need to make some updates to the current forecast. We will reduce the PoPs/Wx grids as subsidence around the hurricane seems to be influencing our chances of wet weather (downward trend), however, clouds remain along with some low level wind gradient. So a challenge where fog may develop tonight as we will favor the northwestern 1/3rd of the CWA. Otherwise, minor tweaks to the temperatures at this time. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details on Jose. Low temperatures tonight will be above normal with readings ranging from mid 50s (rural areas/higher elevations) to mid 60s (urban locations). These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Jose continues a slow motion to the northeast on Wednesday, then takes up residence well southeast of the southeast New England coast through the remainder of the period. Jose impacts here will be nil. Ridging will build into the area at all levels of the atmosphere through Friday. This will bring well above normal temperatures. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The period is expected to be characterized by dry weather with temperatures warmer than normal, possibly significantly so. Ample ridging over the eastern CONUS and associated subsidence will result in persistent high pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures over eastern New York and western New England through the beginning of next week. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the track of Jose, which is expected to be post-tropical during the long term period. It is something to keep an eye on, but model consensus has the wind/rain associated with Jose staying offshore and out of our forecast region for the long term period. Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temperatures running 10- 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. (GFS and Euro both show 500 mb 590dm heights in play at Albany on Sunday night. A not comprehensive check of sounding data this summer shows only one observation with 500mb heights getting to 590dm - 00z June 12.) With the aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely bolstered by Jose`s outflow, high temperatures should be in the upper 70s/low 80s in the higher terrain and low to upper 80s in valley regions. Dewpoints throughout the period will be in the mid 50s to low 60s resulting in humid conditions. Apparent temperatures will creep into the upper 80s late this weekend into early next week, making the heat quite oppressive for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very challenging forecast tonight with respect to MVFR/IFR conditions. Seems shower potential appears to be reducing as subsidence around the periphery of Jose may be having an effect. However, mid and high cloud coverage remains along with a surface gradient keeping winds a bit up. So just how much clearing takes place to the north of ALB for more fog/stratus to develop and MVFR CIGS south and east of ALB overnight will evolve. For now, TEMPO groups for IFR conditions at KGFL with MVFR conditions for the remainder of the region tonight. Conditions should improve through Wednesday to VFR with a northerly wind and gusts to near 20kts at times. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Some showers associated with Jose are possible for areas south and east of the Capital District into Wednesday. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night into early next week with temperatures continuing to be above normal. Relative humidity recovery tonight and Wednesday night will be 90-100 percent. Minimum values Wednesday afternoon are expected to be 60-75 percent. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OKeefe NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe SHORT TERM...OKeefe LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...BGM/JVM FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe HYDROLOGY...IAA/OKeefe www.weather.gov/albany

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