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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 161422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair weather through tonight. Low
pressure approaching from the southwest will bring increasing
clouds Wednesday, with some showers for Wednesday night through
Thursday. An approaching cold front will bring additional
showers late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 1022 AM EDT...A high amplitude ridge continues
to build in today from the Southeast/Mid Atlantic State and
Ontario, as a mid and upper level low slowly moves across the
Canadian Maritimes. A sfc anticyclone is building in from the
northern Great Lakes Region/s-central Ontario with strong
subsidence for mostly sunny/sunny skies. Some adjustments to
hourly temp/dewpt trends and sky cover. We also removed the
patchy fog/fog along the CT River Valley near eastern Windham
County. Max temps in the the lower to mid 60s will be common in
the valleys with mid and upper 50s over the hill towns, and
upper 40s to lower 50s over the mtns. The 12Z KALY sounding has
the top of the mixed layer to 750-725 hPa. With strong northwest
flow and deep mixing expected we could see some gusts in the
20-30 mph range over the western New England higher terrain and
the Capital Region this afternoon. It will be breezy and
seasonably pleasant for mid-April.


PREV DISCUSSION [349 AM EDT]...Mostly sunny skies are expected
for today, with some patchy clouds developing later this morning
through the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached.
Deep mixing to ~H750 should allow max temps to reach the
lower/mid 60s in valley areas from Albany southward, with some
upper 60s possible in the mid Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, expect
max temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s in valley areas north and
west of Albany, with upper 40s/lower 50s across higher terrain
areas.

Winds will increase and become gusty once again later this
morning through the afternoon as mixing depth increases, with
some gusts peaking at 25-30 mph, particularly within the Mohawk
Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The combination of a dry air mass in place, mainly clear skies
and light to calm winds should promote excellent radiational
cooling tonight, particularly across the southern
Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Min temps may be slightly
cooler than this morning, with some pockets of lower/mid 20s
possible in these areas. Elsewhere, lows should range from the
upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

Surface high pressure will shift off the New England coast
Wednesday, as low pressure slowly approaches from the west.
Model consensus favors upper level confluent flow persisting
across the northeast states, which should maintain high pressure
just off the New England coast, and also allow incoming upper
level shortwave to shear south and west of the region. Showers
should approach the mid Hudson Valley/SE Catskills and possibly
the far western Mohawk Valley prior to sunset, with showers then
slowly expanding north and east Wednesday night. High
temperatures Wednesday should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley
areas, and 55-60 across higher terrain areas. Lows Wednesday
night in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s.

The showers may dissipate before reaching portions of southern
VT, the upper Hudson Valley and portions of the southern
Adirondacks, where it may remain dry into Thursday. Elsewhere,
expect at least spotty showers or light rain Thursday,
decreasing during Thursday night. With clouds and some showers,
temperatures should remain cool Thursday, mainly in the 50s,
with some areas where showers persist possibly barely reaching
50. The mildest temperatures may be the upper Hudson Valley,
southern Adirondacks into southern VT where showers may remain
limited and a few breaks of sun could develop. In these areas,
high temps may reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows Thursday
night generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term begins at 12z Friday with an upper trough and associated
surface low tracking eastwards towards Hudson Bay. Upper ridging
will be located over eastern New England, with surface high pressure
located near Cape Cod on the downstream side of the upper ridge. As
the surface low tracks north of our area, it`s trailing cold front
will approach from the west. We should have enough influence from
the surface high and upper ridging for a dry start to the day, but
chances for showers increase from west to east as the day goes on
ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs will be mainly in the 50s
to low 60s, with the warmest temperatures in the upper Hudson and
Mohawk Valleys as the marine influence from SE flow around the
periphery of the surface high should keep western New England and
the Mid Hudson Valley a little cooler.

Friday night and Saturday, the upper trough passes to our north and
the surface cold front tracks through our region. Height falls,
cyclonic vorticity advection, and low-level convergence along the
wind shift boundary will lead to scattered showers, although qpf
looks to be relatively light with the strongest forcing remaining
north of our region. Saturday night into Sunday, broad upper
troughing remains just to our north, and a shortwave tracking
through the mean flow aloft will help to drive a secondary cold
front through our region. Expecting any precip with this secondary
cold front to be more isolated in nature as there will be less
moisture to work with. Lows Friday night will be mainly in the 40s,
with 30s Saturday night. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from
40s in the high terrain to low 60s in the Mid Hudson Valley.

We remain in a post-frontal, cold advection regime Monday with more
zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure ridging in from the west.
Mainly dry conditions are expected. Highs will be a few degrees
warmer than over the weekend, with most valley areas getting into
the low 60s. Monday night looks cool and dry with lows mainly in the
30s again with high pressure nearby. There is some uncertainty as to
whether the surface high lingers over our area into Tuesday or not.
At this lead time, will lean towards NBM guidance which suggests
slight chance PoPs and highs similar to those on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...FLying conditions are VFR at all terminals,
with mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least the
next 24 hours. There may be some patchy fog for a couple hours late
tonight/around sunrise, and have included a tempo group for this.
Moderate confidence on fog formation, but if fog does indeed form
then brief IFR conditions would be possible there. No fog is
expected at the other TAF sites tonight. Any early morning fog
quickly burns off by 12z at GFL. Then, all terminals see partly to
mostly clear skies with just a few passing mid-level clouds during
the day today and through the first half of tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through around sunrise, then
increase to around 4-7 kt from the west through mid-morning. From
mid to late morning through around sunset, westerly winds at around
10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt are expected. Gusts diminish after
sunset with sustained winds of 5-10 kt from the northwest, switching
to 5 kt or less from the north/northeast after around 03z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main