Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 160603 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 103 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area on Thursday with a coastal low pressure system forming south and east of Long Island, as rain showers will transition to snow showers with some accumulating snowfall over the higher terrain and north and west of the Capital Region into Thursday night. Cold and brisk conditions will close the work week with high pressure building back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1222 AM EST...Temperatures continue to hover at or below freezing mainly for areas north and east of Albany, especially into southern Vermont and the northern Berkshires. Generally temperatures west of the Hudson are already at or near lows for the night, with temperatures rising the rest of the night. Temperatures north and east of Albany will remain fairly steady, with some slight warming towards sunrise. Made some minor adjustments to pops overnight, but forecast generally on track. As far as the precipitation forecast goes into Thursday, no changes made from previous edition. Expecting rain will spread across areas along and west of the Hudson Valley about 07Z-09Z, mixing with snow in high elevations. There is a chance that patches of precipitation could spread as far east as western New England by 10Z-12Z. There could also be an inch or two of snow in the higher peaks of the southern Adirondacks through daybreak. 00Z HREF indicating potential for a bit of frozen mix over the southern Greens, where cold air in the low level is expected to linger. Added a mix of snow/sleet there, but again any accumulations will be very light. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper energy in the western Great Lakes will strengthen as it tracks through our region Thursday morning and as the associated cold front exits. The forcing along the boundary layer thermal gradient along with the strengthening upper dynamics and lingering moisture could result in a brief burst of snow in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Before the precipitation exits, the southern Adirondacks could see another inch or so of snow and the southern Green Mountains and higher elevations of the Berkshires could see a dusting to just under an inch. Cold advection and strong west to northwest winds will spread across our region Thursday afternoon with lingering showers into higher terrain transitioning to lake effect snow showers into the southern Adirondacks Thursday night. Clouds could gradually break up Thursday afternoon, especially in the Hudson Valley and other downslope areas but the better clearing should be Thursday night. Winds will likely stay gusty Thursday night with deeper cold advection occurring. Highs Thursday in the upper 40s to mid 50s but mid 40s higher terrain, with highs occurring before the frontal passage. Temperatures fall in the afternoon. Winds will prevent temperatures from falling too much Thursday night, with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds should still be breezy Friday but diminish through the day with intervals of clouds and sun. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 40s but mid 30s southern Adirondacks. The next system begins to approach Friday night and depending on the timing of the onset of thicker clouds, a period of calm winds and clear sky could allow temperatures to fall quickly, especially since there is a consensus in sources of guidance for the low level ridging to be overhead. Lows Friday night could be in the lower to mid 20s early before temperatures rise through the night. There is a good consensus in sources of guidance that the onset of precipitation associated with the increasing warm advection, isentropic lift and moisture advection, would be toward daybreak Saturday. There are some disagreements in guidance as to the thermal profiles across the region early Saturday morning through the rest of Saturday morning, as the precipitation rapidly increases in coverage. Many areas could see precipitation start as a mix before changing to rain through Saturday morning. Indicating rain and snow in many areas and will hold off on any other precipitation types until a better consensus in guidance occurs, if guidance even does eventually suggest other precipitation types, we will see. Strong southwest boundary layer flow should warm low levels enough for all areas, even higher terrain, to see a transition to rain Saturday. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 40s but around 40 to lower 40s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term forecast period will begin with a strong low pressure system tracking Northeastward over the Great Lakes region. The associated cold front approaches the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with thermal profiles suggesting primarily rain over most of the region with the higher elevations of the Adirondacks seeing some light snow accumulations late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will be in the low 40s in the valley with the Adirondacks staying cooler in the low to mid 30s. Sunday afternoon and Monday are characterized with Lake effect snow in the western Adirondacks and some upslope precipitation in the Adirondacks, Catskills, Southern Greens, and Berkshires. Guidance varies on the LL flow direction so snowfall accumulations from the Lake Effect snow are uncertain at this time. Some lingering rain/snow showers will hang around through Monday morning with little accumulation. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper teens/low 20s with highs Monday in the upper 20s/low 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with some light precipitation in the NW portion of the CWA on Wednesday with upper ridging and surface high pressure attempting to build into the region from the southwest. A brief warm up into the mid to upper 40s looks to be in store for the early-to-mid week period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A primary low pressure system will track eastward across southeast Ontario and southern Quebec this morning with a secondary low forming southeast of Long Island. The occluded front between the cyclones will move across the region in the late morning into the afternoon. Brisk winds will occur in the wake of the system tonight into Friday morning. VFR conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels between 08Z-12Z for KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL, as warm advection pcpn overspreads the region from the west to southwest to north to northeast. A brief period of wet snow may mix with the rain at KGFL/KPSF before changing to rain. A period of IFR/low MVFR conditions in terms of cigs/vsbys is likely for all the sites between 09Z-17Z. As the occluded front moves through cigs/vsbys should return to VFR levels at KPOU by 18Z. Expect VFR/high MVFR conditions to return all the TAF sites between 18Z-21Z, with perhaps some MVFR cigs lingering at KPSF until 19Z. VCSH groups were left in at most of the TAF sites into the early evening with the upper level low producing isolated to scattered rain to snow showers. Widespread VFR conditions with cigs in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range are likely after 01Z/FRI. Low level wind shear was continued for KGFL/KPSF/KPOU until 11Z or 12Z with sfc winds generally less than 7 kts and 2 kft AGL winds of 35-40 kts. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5-10 kts this morning, and then will veer to the southwest to west at 7-12 kts by the late morning into the early afternoon. The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 10-15 kts by the late afternoon into the early evening with some gusts in the 20-25 kts range. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32.0 NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area on Thursday with a coastal low pressure system forming south and east of Long Island, as rain showers will transition to snow showers with some accumulating snowfall over the higher terrain and north and west of the Capital Region into Thursday night. Cold and brisk conditions will close the work week with high pressure building back in. Widespread rain is expected late tonight and Thursday, with a mix of snow possible in higher elevations. After dry weather Friday, another wet day is expected Saturday. Winds will gust from the west at up to 30 mph Thursday afternoon and night then diminish through the day Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No major problems are expected on the main stem rivers the next 5 days ending Sunday. A warm front, and then a cold front will bring precipitation back to the Hydro Service Area, late tonight into Thursday morning. A coastal low and an upper level low will keep the precipitation going into Thursday night. Total liquid equivalents will range from about two tenths to a half of an inch over the area. The higher totals will likely be across the southern Adirondacks and portions of western New England. Snow amounts may range form 2 to 4 inches or so over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens late tonight through Thursday night. High pressure briefly builds in on Friday before strong low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region on Saturday. A bout of rain/snow to all rain is likely ahead of the warm front initially. A cold front will sweep through Saturday night into Sunday with additional precipitation. Right now, total QPF from the system will range from a half an inch to three quarters of an inch. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...OKeefe/NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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