Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 160228 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 928 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area on Thursday with a coastal low pressure system forming south and east of Long Island, as rain showers will transition to snow showers with some accumulating snowfall over the higher terrain and north and west of the Capital Region into Thursday night. Cold and brisk conditions will close the work week with high pressure building back in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Watching temperatures closely this evening. Temperatures have bottomed out across the Adirondacks and are steady or slowly rising per NYS Mesonet obs. Generally temperatures west of the Hudson are at or near lows for the night. To the east temperatures can still fall some more, particularly across southern Vermont. As far as the precipitation forecast goes into Thursday, no changes made from previous edition. Expecting rain will spread across areas along and west of the Hudson Valley about 07-09Z, mixing with snow in high elevations. There is a chance that patches of precipitation could spread as far east as western New England by 11-12Z. There could also be an inch or two of snow in the higher peaks of the southern Adirondacks through daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper energy in the western Great Lakes will strengthen as it tracks through our region Thursday morning and as the associated cold front exits. The forcing along the boundary layer thermal gradient along with the strengthening upper dynamics and lingering moisture could result in a brief burst of snow in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Before the precipitation exits, the southern Adirondacks could see another inch or so of snow and the southern Green Mountains and higher elevations of the Berkshires could see a dusting to just under an inch. Cold advection and strong west to northwest winds will spread across our region Thursday afternoon with lingering showers into higher terrain transitioning to lake effect snow showers into the southern Adirondacks Thursday night. Clouds could gradually break up Thursday afternoon, especially in the Hudson Valley and other downslope areas but the better clearing should be Thursday night. Winds will likely stay gusty Thursday night with deeper cold advection occurring. Highs Thursday in the upper 40s to mid 50s but mid 40s higher terrain, with highs occurring before the frontal passage. Temperatures fall in the afternoon. Winds will prevent temperatures from falling too much Thursday night, with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds should still be breezy Friday but diminish through the day with intervals of clouds and sun. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 40s but mid 30s southern Adirondacks. The next system begins to approach Friday night and depending on the timing of the onset of thicker clouds, a period of calm winds and clear sky could allow temperatures to fall quickly, especially since there is a consensus in sources of guidance for the low level ridging to be overhead. Lows Friday night could be in the lower to mid 20s early before temperatures rise through the night. There is a good consensus in sources of guidance that the onset of precipitation associated with the increasing warm advection, isentropic lift and moisture advection, would be toward daybreak Saturday. There are some disagreements in guidance as to the thermal profiles across the region early Saturday morning through the rest of Saturday morning, as the precipitation rapidly increases in coverage. Many areas could see precipitation start as a mix before changing to rain through Saturday morning. Indicating rain and snow in many areas and will hold off on any other precipitation types until a better consensus in guidance occurs, if guidance even does eventually suggest other precipitation types, we will see. Strong southwest boundary layer flow should warm low levels enough for all areas, even higher terrain, to see a transition to rain Saturday. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 40s but around 40 to lower 40s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term forecast period will begin with a strong low pressure system tracking Northeastward over the Great Lakes region. The associated cold front approaches the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with thermal profiles suggesting primarily rain over most of the region with the higher elevations of the Adirondacks seeing some light snow accumulations late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will be in the low 40s in the valley with the Adirondacks staying cooler in the low to mid 30s. Sunday afternoon and Monday are characterized with Lake effect snow in the western Adirondacks and some upslope precipitation in the Adirondacks, Catskills, Southern Greens, and Berkshires. Guidance varies on the LL flow direction so snowfall accumulations from the Lake Effect snow are uncertain at this time. Some lingering rain/snow showers will hang around through Monday morning with little accumulation. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper teens/low 20s with highs Monday in the upper 20s/low 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with some light precipitation in the NW portion of the CWA on Wednesday with upper ridging and surface high pressure attempting to build into the region from the southwest. A brief warm up into the mid to upper 40s looks to be in store for the early-to-mid week period. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes region tonight, and move across the area during Thursday. A warm front associated with this system will approach from the southwest late tonight into Thursday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected this evening. Later tonight, lower clouds will expand northward across the region, with MVFR Cigs developing. Also, light rain will develop after 08Z/Thu, with periods of light rain/rain showers expected through at least 16Z/Thu. Some wet snow could be mixed in initially at KPSF. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to develop, both for Cigs and Vsby, from around 09Z/Thu through at least 16Z/Thu. Conditions could improve in some areas after 18Z/Thu, esp at KPOU, where MVFR/VFR conditions may develop. Winds will be light/variable tonight. However, at KALB, south winds may actually increase this evening into a good portion of tonight, as south winds increase to 8-12 KT, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible. Winds may decrease shortly after the rain develops. On Thursday, expect south to southwest winds through 18Z/Thu at generally 5-10 KT, with some gustiness possibly developing toward and after 18Z/Thu. Low level wind shear is expected to develop at sites where surface winds decrease to less than 8 KT tonight, as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to 35-40 KT. So, have included mention of LLWS at KGFL/KPOU and KPSF for later Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32.0 NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area on Thursday with a coastal low pressure system forming south and east of Long Island, as rain showers will transition to snow showers with some accumulating snowfall over the higher terrain and north and west of the Capital Region into Thursday night. Cold and brisk conditions will close the work week with high pressure building back in. Widespread rain is expected late tonight and Thursday, with a mix of snow possible in higher elevations. After dry weather Friday, another wet day is expected Saturday. Winds will gust from the west at up to 30 mph Thursday afternoon and night then diminish through the day Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No major problems are expected on the main stem rivers the next 5 days ending Sunday. A warm front, and then a cold front will bring precipitation back to the Hydro Service Area, late tonight into Thursday morning. A coastal low and an upper level low will keep the precipitation going into Thursday night. Total liquid equivalents will range from about two tenths to a half of an inch over the area. The higher totals will likely be across the southern Adirondacks and portions of western New England. Snow amounts may range form 2 to 4 inches or so over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens late tonight through Thursday night. High pressure briefly builds in on Friday before strong low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region on Saturday. A bout of rain/snow to all rain is likely ahead of the warm front initially. A cold front will sweep through Saturday night into Sunday with additional precipitation. Right now, total QPF from the system will range from a half an inch to three quarters of an inch. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...OKeefe/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Cebulko AVIATION...KL/OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS

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