Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 150514 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1214 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Bitterly cold conditions will continue through early in the week as high pressure controls the weather. A clipper type system may bring some light snow to the region late Monday night into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1214 AM EST...High level cirrus clouds gradually increasing across the area, but still plenty of breaks in the clouds at this time. Where winds have gone calm, temperatures have dropped quickly. Some uncertainty remains with how thick the cloud cover will be and how the temperatures will respond. Kept mostly clear to partly cloudy wording as it looks like the thickest clouds may remain just west, but have temps leveling off late. Current temps range from around -10 in the Adirondacks to the single digits in the Capital District and mid-Hudson Valley. For Monday, additional shortwave energy currently across the lower MS Valley is expected to advance toward the region. This should lead to at least occasional clouds, especially during the afternoon. Also, some lower clouds from Atlantic moisture may begin expanding west/northwest into the southern Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and perhaps as far N and W as the mid Hudson Valley and Berkshires by late afternoon. Although no snow is forecast through Monday at this time, we will have to watch both radar and satellite trends through the day, as the upper energy expected to reach the region is currently producing pockets of light to moderate snow across the lower MS Valley. Most near term models, including the 12Z/14 HREFs and latest HRRRE and HRRRX suggest this energy dampens and any precipitation weakens before reaching our region. However, with the return of some low level Atlantic moisture, and thickening mid level clouds, some seeder-feeder processes could allow for some spotty light snow or flurries to develop toward sunset. So again, will need to closely watch radar/satellite trends and sfc obs in case any light snow or flurries develop a bit quicker than the current forecast reflects. Highs should be in the mid teens to lower/mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure over the region Monday evening will be lifting off to the north and east as a clipper type low pressure system moves east from the central Great Lakes. This system will be the weather maker for the mid week period. The low is expected to move into the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday and then shift off the eastern seaboard early Wednesday. This system will bring light snow to the region starting later Monday night and continuing into Tuesday night before tapering off Wednesday morning. Total snowfall amounts at this time look to be between 1 and 3 inches with localized amounts up to 4 inches. Lows Monday night will be in the upper single digits to upper teens with highs on Tuesday in the 20s to lower 30s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper single digits to mid 20s with highs on Wednesday in the mid teens to around 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A fairly tranquil period is appearing likely for a change from mid- week into at least the beginning of the weekend. 12Z GFS/GEFS suggest what`s left of the upper trough will swing east of the forecast area Wednesday night with subsident northwest flow in its wake. 12Z ECMWF is similar, but with a much stronger cutoff midlevel low over the mid-Atlantic coast and a strong coastal low developing but whose impacts remain east of the local forecast area. Can`t completely rule out some impacts from a coastal low locally given the flow pattern, but will side with the dry/progressive solution given the run-to-run consistency of the GFS compared with the fluctuations of the ECMWF, as well as the unanimity of GEFS members. Thursday through Saturday, expect mainly dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures from near normal on Thursday to above normal by Friday and Saturday. Can`t totally rule out a few periods of light precipitation with progressive, low-amplitude disturbances racing through the midlevel flow as it backs from northwesterly to southwesterly. A few periods of light lake effect snow are also possible. Low-level flow looks to back similarly as expansive high pressure translates eastward, with southwesterly flow resulting in mild temps by Saturday. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clear skies beneath high pressure early this evening. Mid/high clouds will increase somewhat but VFR conditions will prevail. Nonzero possibility of Atlantic moisture wrapping around the high and sending some MVFR-level clouds into KPSF/KPOU Monday afternoon. Included SCT clouds to account for this possibility. Otherwise VFR continues. Winds tonight will be light northerly, becoming northeasterly around 5 to 10 kt Monday. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Ongoing flooding will be addressed with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in place due to the very cold temperatures expected over the next 2 days. Warmer weather is not expected until the end of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/NAS NEAR TERM...KL/Thompson/JPV SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...Thompson HYDROLOGY...11/NAS

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