Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 171419 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1019 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will control our weather through Monday with mainly dry weather, above normal temperatures and humid conditions. Hurricane Jose will slowly be moving north towards the Northeast early next week with an increasing threat of some showers late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1015 AM EDT, Valley fog/stratus slowly lifting and eroding as the delay is the combination of lowering sun angle and our 12Z sounding revealing a couple of low level inversions in place. Once these low clouds erode, another mild and relatively humid afternoon across the region. As per yesterday`s observations and latest HRRR/NAM3km, we will expand the slight chance for showers into the higher terrain for portions of the Taconics, Southern Greens, Berks, Catskills as weakening upper low remains in the vicinity per satellite H2O imagery. High pressure will remain in control of the weather today as deeper subsidence slowly builds in from the west and north. The last bit of upper energy lagging behind the remnants of the hurricane are still settling south of our region, as seen in the GOES-16 upper level WV imagery. This may allow for a spotty shower or two this afternoon, mainly confined to the terrain. Afternoon high temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Patchy dense fog will once again be possible tonight, though it should be slightly less in coverage as this morning due to deeper subsidence working into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will be similar to today as high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather. Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. Fog will be possible again Monday night but should have less coverage due to drier air in place. Monday night into Tuesday, clouds and additional moisture will begin working their way into the region from the south and east as Hurricane Jose lifts northward, paralleling the US coastline. There is still uncertainty with the track of Jose as it lifts north and fights against a strong ridge in place over the eastern CONUS. However, current NHC track keeps Jose well offshore. This would mean that our area would not be affected by the system other than a notable increase in clouds, winds and some precipitation, mainly south and east of the Capital District Monday night through Tuesday night. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Jose`s official forecast track. Lows Monday night will remain mild, in the low 60s. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 70s with temps potentially in the 60s to the south and east where any thicker cloud cover and better chances of rain exist. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The beginning of the extended forecast hinges in the balance of where Tropical Cyclone Jose tracks or even stalls. There continues to be a lot of spread in the guidance this morning with the 00Z ECMWF slowing and stalling the system south of Long Island and southern New England near 40N and just west of 70W. The 00Z GFS/Canadian re-curve the system south and east of southern New England with little impact on our forecast area mid-week. The 00Z EC solution would bring some periods of rain especially from the Capital District/southern VT south and east into Wednesday evening. We kept higher chances of showers in from these areas south and east based on a superblend of the guidance/WPC and then clear things out for the evening. Locations north and west of the Capital District may have little or no rain. It may become windy/breezy with northwest to northeast winds as well across portions of the Berkshires, Taconics, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT during this time frame. Highs on Wed will be slightly above normal despite some clouds and possible rain with upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mtns, and upper 70s to close to 80F in the valleys, and mid 50s to around 60F for lows. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Jose`s official forecast track. Thursday into Saturday...We maintained a dry forecast based on the superblend of the guidance with the one issue early in this period being the placement and location of a rapidly filling/weakening Jose just south and west of the 40N/70W bench mark if the 00Z EC is correct. The 00Z CMC/GFS are well east or southeast of Cape Cod. The EC would bring some clouds and a threat of a few showers over NW CT early on THU. Ridging at the sfc and aloft builds in from the the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada. H850 temps rise to 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal during this stretch. A closed 588 decameter anticyclone builds in over the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Northeast by FRI, which is the first day of astronomical Fall. Temps are expected to run above normal by close to 10 degrees. Highs will tend to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valley locations, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, except for a few cooler spots over the southern Adirondacks in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, these temps will be running above normal for late Sept. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be over eastern NY and New England today into tonight. Radiational fog continues this morning over the TAF sites this morning with IFR to VLIFR conditions. The fog and low stratus should burn off and dissipate between 13Z-16Z at all the TAF sites. The low stratus/mist may linger the longest at KPOU with IFR/MVFR conditions until 16Z. Expect VFR conditions thereafter with a few-sct cumulus and few-sct cirrus at the TAF sites. The mist/fog will begin once again this evening at KPSF initially at 02Z with ideal radiational cooling conditions. The skies should be clear or mostly clear at the other TAF sites early this evening and expect more IFR to VLIFR fog and stratus especially after 06Z/MON at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The winds will be calm this morning, and then variable in direction at 5 kts or less during the afternoon, before becoming calm again tonight. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will control our weather through Monday with mainly dry weather, above normal temperatures and humid conditions. Hurricane Jose will slowly be moving north towards the Northeast Monday and Tuesday with an increasing threat of some showers late Monday into Wednesday. The min RH values will be 50 to 70 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons. The RH values will be 80 to 100 percent tonight and Monday night. Light and variable in direction winds of less than 15 mph will occur through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread rain is expected through Monday. Isolated showers could produce point rainfall of a tenth of an inch or less this afternoon and Monday afternoon. The track of Tropical Cyclone Jose will determine the extent of any rainfall getting into Albany HSA Tuesday into Wednesday. Currently, the official NHC track of Hurricane Jose is well offshore. However, it is possible locations south and east of the Capital Region could get some light to moderate amounts of rain on the northwest side of the system, with less than half of an inch of rain currently forecast. Drier weather returns to the region on Thursday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...BGM/JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.