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397
FXUS61 KALY 191046
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Some rain and breezy conditions should impact areas south and
east of the Capital District today into Wednesday in association
with Jose. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry
Wednesday night through the weekend into early next week with
temperatures continuing to be above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The area is squeezed between Jose off the coast and a cold
front gradually approaching from the northwest with ridging
extended across the local area. Stratus advected in from the
southeast and clouds are caught under an inversion which can be
seen on the 06Z/Tuesday upper air sounding (which was launched
in support of National Hurricane Center operations). Also where
skies have been mostly clear to partly cloudy radiational fog
developed. The stratus and fog are expected to lift and mix out
by mid to late morning.

Some showers within the outer bands of Jose are expected for areas
to the south and east of the Capital District. Have chances pops
across the southeastern portion of the forecast area.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal but not as warm
as yesterday due to increased cloud cover. It will continue to
be muggy/humid with dew points in the 60s across much of the area.

Northeast winds will develop today and be on the increase this
afternoon especially across northwestern Connecticut into the
Berkshires and mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Chances for showers are expected to linger across the southeastern
half of the forecast area into early Wednesday as the cold front
presses into the region and Jose passes south of Long Island and
Cape Cod. North to northeast winds will increase and are expected
to be at their strongest Wednesday morning with gusts up to 30 mph
across northwest CT.

Jose is forecast to weaken as it lingers off the east coast. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecast and other details
on Jose. Ridging will build in at all levels of the atmosphere so
fair and warm conditions are expected as we move into the latter
part of the week with highs back into the lower 80s up the Hudson
River Valley and in portions of the Mohawk Valley for Thursday.
Dew points are not expected to be a high Thursday with readings
in the 50s which will result in more comfortable humidity levels
and a cooler night Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly good agreement among deterministic models and fairly low
spread in ensemble guidance in the long term period. The period is
expected to be characterized by dry weather with temperatures warmer
than normal, possibly significantly so. The longwave pattern will
feature a full-latitude trough across the Intermountain West with an
anomalous downstream ridge with +1 to +2 SD 500 mb heights across
the northeastern US. Still some uncertainty with respect to the
track of Jose, which is expected to be post-tropical during the long
term period. Consensus places Jose offshore on Friday in the
vicinity of 40N/65W. Thereafter, most models allow it to just drift
around, not making much headway into early next week. However, a
minority of GEFS members as well as the 12Z/18 ECMWF allow the ridge
to expand far enough north that Jose`s remnants meander back toward
the vicinity of New Jersey by the end of the period. It`s something
to watch for, but does not appear to be a high probability event at
this time, so the forecast was left dry.

Otherwise, the main story should be the warm temps. With the
aforementioned anomalous ridge, likely bolstered by Jose`s outflow,
and accompanying H850 temps averaging around +16C (also +1 to +2 SD
per the GEFS), highs in the 70s and 80s will be common. It also
appears to be somewhat humid with dewpoints in the 60s, so overnight
lows will be well above normal as well. All told, daily average
temps could run 10-15F or more above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, there is an area of MVFR stratus over KPSF/KPOU
that has mitigated fog formation, while mostly clear skies have
allowed for IFR BR/BCFG to form at KALB and FG at KGFL. Expect the
ground-based moisture to mix out into a BKN VFR cloud layer by 13-
14Z, while the MVFR stratus at KPSF/KPOU may hold on into the late
morning and possibly longer.

Hurricane Jose will drift closer to the region today. While the
system will remain far enough offshore to spare the terminals major
impacts, some showers may approach KPSF/KPOU late this afternoon
into this evening. Tonight, borderline VFR/MVFR clouds associated
with Jose, along with a moderate north/northeasterly breeze, is
expected to keep fog potential low. Some lowering to IFR stratus is
possible, mainly at KPSF due to their higher elevation.

Winds will become northeasterly at around 5 kt today, increasing to
10-15 kt late this afternoon into the evening at KPSF/KPOU with some
gusts to around 20 kt. Winds will gradually back to the north late
this afternoon into the evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some rain and breezy conditions should impact areas south and
east of the Capital District today into Wednesday in association
withe Jose. The weather is then expected to be fair and dry
Wednesday night through the weekend into early next week with
temperatures continuing to be above normal.

Minimum relative humidity will rather high today with values in
the 60s with 70s across western new England. Recovery tonight
will be near 100 percent. Minimums values Wednesday afternoon
are expected to be in the 50s with 60s across western New England.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. Expected rainfall
associated with Tropical Cyclone Jose is less than previous
forecast as track as shifted a bit eastward. At this time, the
current forecast has little if any rain from the Capital
District northwestward with amounts ranging from up to a quarter
to a third of an inch across northwestern Connecticut. Any change
in the track of Jose will impact the rainfall forecast.

The weather is expected to be fair and dry Wednesday night through
the weekend into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA