Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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NOUS41 KALY 241200

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albany, NY
800 AM EDT Fri  Mar 17 2017

The National Weather Service (NWS) Albany, NY has declared March
13 through March 17 as Flood Safety Awareness Week. Each day during
the awareness week will feature information about a different flood
related topic. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter for safety and
preparedness messages throughout the week.

After the Rain...

Predicting the rain is only the first part of the flood forecasting
battle. The second step is predicting where the subsequent runoff
will go. And third, what impact will that new runoff have on the
rivers. The National Weather Service has developed new hydrologic
forecasting tools to better enable forecasters in predicting
flood situations.

One newly developed tool is the National Water Model.  The National
Water Model (NWM) is a hydrologic model designed for the entire
continental United States, not just specific points on main stem rivers.
The NWM models rainfall, its complex interaction with various ground
conditions, and then tracks it through the river system. This tool
provides forecasters with a broader spectrum on the flood risk across the
country. The existing river forecasting program is designed for under
4,000 river points across the country. The NWM expands this network to
over 2.7 million river points. Learn more about the National Water
Model at

Another new tool to reduce flood risk and uncertainty is the
Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts System (MMEFS).
River forecasting is dependent on calculating the amount of runoff
in a riverine system, and understanding how the river can handle that
amount of runoff. However, the primary challenge that forecasters have
is predicting the future runoff. The MMEFS is a tool where the public
can see the variations in the river response due to the different rainfall
and snowmelt forecasts.  The amount of uncertainty and range of potential river
stages is valuable information for decision makers and those with property along
rivers.  Explore MMEFS at

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