286
ACUS48 KWNS 140830
SWOD48
SPC AC 140829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern
U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of
low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along
the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm
potential will be possible through the period as individual
shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from
the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally
low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S.
through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe
potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days
convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a
result, predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025