Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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954 FXUS61 KCAR 102213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night. A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday then crosses the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6:13 PM Update: Satellite pictures show the clouds breaking up a bit in spots from northern Somerset County and across northern Piscataquis County and into parts of central Aroostook County. Clouds are also seen backing into eastern Maine from New Brunswick into southeast Aroostook County south into Washington County. The best chance of the sky becoming clear to partly cloudy tonight will be across the northern third of the FA to the north of Baxter State Park, and the best chance of it remaining cloudy will be across the Downeast Region. Made minor tweaks to the forecast for tonight based on the latest satellite pictures and observations, but overall the ongoing forecast is in good shape with the changes minor. Previous discussion: Surface high pressure centered across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will ridge back across the region tonight through Saturday. Aloft, troffing re-develops across the region tonight into Saturday. A disturbance will move through the trof Saturday. Diurnal clouds will decrease early tonight generally leaving partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the forecast area overnight. However, indications are that clouds could also begin to back across southeast portions of the forecast area, from the Maritimes, late which could lead to increasing clouds there. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Saturday. Could also have isolated, mostly afternoon, showers. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across much of the forecast, with slightly cooler temperatures possible along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface centered near Labrador will continue to ridge down across the region Saturday night. Expect partly cloudy skies Saturday night and partly sunny to mainly cloudy skies on Sunday. The center of H5 low/cold pool aloft is expected to remain to our south during Sunday. The forecast soundings suggest the low levels will remain quite dry on Sunday. The better instability associated with the upper level low/cold pool aloft remains to our south and west, thus kept things dry through Sunday. The upper low crosses the region Sunday night and exits east toward the Canadian Maritimes. Forecast soundings do show a bit more more instabilty aloft on the northwest side of the departing upper low/cold pool aloft on Monday, but once again the low levels look too dry to support much in the way of measurable rainfall through most of the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm front approaches Monday night crosses the region on Tuesday, followed by an approaching cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moisture begins to increase in advance of the front later Tuesday. There are model discrepancies Tuesday night and Wednesday with regard to how quickly the front moves through. Some models bring the front through Tuesday night. GFS/CMC on the other hand slow the front up, with indications that weak areas of low pressure will move northeast along the front. There is also uncertainty as to how much southern stream phasing occurs and whether we tap into more significant gulf moisture, with the potential for some heavier rain. Have maintained shower wording, but this may turn out to be a more stratiform rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, used the latest NBM pops for rain chances. A return to drier conditions should follow for late week behind the aforementioned system. Afternoon highs will trend near or a bit above normal mid to late week. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region tonight through Saturday. However, occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast late tonight into early Saturday. Isolated, mostly afternoon, showers possible Saturday. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Sun night through Mon...Mainly VFR. Mon night and Tue...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers. Tue night through Wed...MVFR or lower possible in showers/rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. Isolated, mostly afternoon, showers possible Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas generally below SCA levels through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...CB/Norcross/TWD Marine...CB/Norcross/TWD