247
FXUS61 KCAR 160421
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will result in afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances through the end of the week along with
seasonably mild temperatures. The shower chances continue through
the weekend...although a washout is not expected.  Somewhat drier
and warmer conditions are expected for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:21 AM update... No major changes with this update. Showers
continue to fall along and north of a stalled frontal boundary
located just south of a line from Greenville to Houlton. Made
minor tweaks to temperatures and winds to account for latest
trends.

Previous Discussion... High Impact Weather Potential: Isolated
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through this
evening. Patchy fog will develop overnight.

Pattern: A band of showers has developed across northern New England
this afternoon along a diffuse frontal boundary draped across the
region.  SBCAPEs have reached around 500 J/kg with PWATs along the
boundary around 1 inch.

Through this Evening: Showers will continue through this
evening under cloudy skies. Local downpours are possible as
unidirectional hodographs suggest some backbuilding/training
potential. Instability will be a limiting factor for any severe
potential with no severe expected. Temperatures through 7pm
will fall back into the 60s.

Tonight: Diminishing instability will cause this afternoon/s
convective activity to wane...though showers will continue along the
front as mid level shortwave moves overhead with modest mid level
forcing for ascent.  Further south for BGR south and east along the
Downeast coast, expect that we/ll remain precipitation free through
the night...but a gradually building NE llevel flow will cause
ceilings to lower and fog to develop.  Low temperature should remain
pretty uniform...in the upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak shortwave passes east of the region Thursday morning with mid
level heights slowly building and high pressure over Atlantic Canada
pushing its way south and west into the region. Despite this...weak
llevel convergence will continue as cold front draped across the
region sags towards the coast.  This boundary will continue to
provide a focus for shower development though the lack of forcing
will keep coverage minimal and any rainfall amounts light.  Very
similar temperatures aloft suggests little change for daytime highs
which should again reach the upper 60s across the north...with lower
70s across interior portions of central and Downeast Maine.

Any shower activity should come to an end Thursday night leaving
conditions dry and partly cloudy.  Expect some patchy fog
development as temperatures fall to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Split flow across NOAM through early next week with high pressure
centered over maritime Canada. With shortwaves passing north of the
region Friday and Saturday...there will be some diurnal shower
chances. Given the maritime high position...the pattern does not
favor much in the way of instability and thus...do not foresee much
thunder threat for Friday/Saturday. Beyond this the northern stream
lifts north with a dry period more likely for Sunday and Monday.  By
the middle of next week a building eastern Pacific Jet will lend
additional shortwave energy that will dig further south across the
CONUS and allow for an increasing chance for precipitation as we
move into the middle of next week.

With the overall trough-ridge setup across NOAM...temperatures aloft
will be above normal throughout the long term forecast period with
the guidance consensus favoring this translating to high
temperatures above May normals except for coastal areas where the
maritime high pressure will favor robust sea breezes and
temperatures closer to...or a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BHB expected to deteriorate to MVFR after 06z and
then to IFR after 07z with LIFR cigs expected between 08-13z.
Improvement to VFR after 13z Thu. BGR may see SCT004 with MVFR
vsbys toward daybreak before improving after 13z.

Aroostook terminals to see VFR showers this evening and
overnight. Conditions diminish to MVFR after 06z with IFR toward
daybreak. Improving to MVFR after mid-late morning.

SHORT TERM:
Thunder is not expected across the terminals on Thursday and
Thursday night.

Beyond Thursday night...a few afternoon showers may bring
isolated restrictions for HUL/CAR and points north for
Friday/Saturday with any overnight fog most likely at BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog is expected over the waters with light winds and relatively
calm waters as a cold front remains draped across the region. At
this time...winds/waves look to remain SCA levels through at
least Tuesday of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Clark/Arnott GYX
Short Term...Arnott GYX
Long Term...Arnott GYX
Aviation...Buster/Clark/Arnott GYX
Marine...Clark/Arnott GYX