Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 142054
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...NONE EXPECTED.

...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1035 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED
ACROSS MOST INLAND SPOTS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN EXCEPT FOR OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN UPPER WHERE LAKE CLOUDS HAD MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTH. APX
AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LAKE ACTIVITY HAD FALLEN
APART EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT REVOLVE
AROUND THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I300
K) AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND
LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS). THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY INCREASE INTENSITY A BIT...AND
POSSIBLY ADD AN EXTRA INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND MIDDLE TEENS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUMMARIZED AS A MUCH WARMER PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS SURFACE AND
UPPER LVL FEATURES COMBINE OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OVER NRN MI MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

AT UPPER LVLS...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AT 500MB WILL SWEEP
OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
500/300MB QVECTORS SHOW THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES CONCENTRATED OVER NRN MI MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW ADDITIONAL FORCING OVER THE
NRN LAKES TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO HUDSON. LAKE EFFECTS WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -14C
BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND -4C TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SFC-
850MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5K FT...CONFINING THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS OVER WRN MACKINAC COUNTY AND TO ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. LAKE INFLUENCES DIMINISH BY 00Z TUESDAY AS MID LVLS WARM
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH BELOW 3K FT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING...AS SATURATED LOW LVL MSTR
LINGERS BELOW THE INVERSION AND BECOMES CONFINED TO TEMPS WARMER THAN
-10C. WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE MOMENT AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE SIGNATURES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S. AFTN HIGHS WARMING
NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY...AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM TO AROUND-4C IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY LAKE INFLUENCES AS ANY
LINGERING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT EXITS THE ERN LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY
...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS QUICKLY
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED MID AND UPPER LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE WED (850/500MB RH QUICKLY DRYING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). HOWEVER LAKE INFLUENCES AND CHANCES FOR LAKE SNOWS
BECOME STRONGER THRU THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS COOL FROM AROUND -6C
TUESDAY NIGHT TO NEARLY -14C WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-
850MB WINDS TRENDING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY
AROUND 5K FT. OVERALL WILL MENTION A DRY FORECAST WED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF WEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECTS. WILL MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY POPS IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY (WITH LIMITED SNOWFALL DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE). COLDER 850MB AIR RUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE TEENS OVER ERN UPPER WITH LOW
TO MID 20S OVER NRN LWR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVERHEAD WED NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR IF NOT BELOW
ZERO IN MANY INLAND LOCALES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE HIGH...AND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY. DRY AIR HOLDS ON THRU THU...BEFORE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF MODEL CONSISTENTLY
SHOW A RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES...WITH SNOW-TO-FZRA-TO-RAIN-TO-SNOW
TRANSITIONS THRU THE EVENT. WON/T GET TOO INVOLVED WITH DETAILS
YET...BUT WILL EXPLICITLY MENTION FZRA THU OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING IN
THE GRIDS AND HWO (BEFORE MUCH WARMER BL AIR ARRIVES). PACIFIC AIR
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP US MILD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TEAM UP WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING BACK CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO TWO INCHES. WINDS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHTISH SOUTH/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OUT
AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS OR SO...NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SW. THE GRADIENT IS LOOSE
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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