000
FXUS63 KAPX 011842
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

High impact weather potential: None

Upper low forecast to lift into MI and then slowly drift east
Sunday. Surface low and deeper moisture also move east. Until
then moisture rotating around the low will keep skies cloudy and
at least the threat for showers around through Sunday. Cooling
tonight with abundant low level moisture will help fog develop.
This afternoon and tonight vorticity and isentropic lift
increases ahead of the upper low then quickly decreases after
daybreak Sunday. Expect to see occasional showers especially
across the north through daybreak.

Sunday the low moves away. As this happens drier air finally
starts to push into the region late Sunday. However, the cold
pool will still be overhead and as 850mb temps rise slightly
during the day...lapse rates will increase. BUFKIT soundings show
some CAPE at KMBS. Some instability (<500 J/kg) but not enough for
widespread tstorms. In any case cloudy...showers will be more
chancy tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday...this period will continue the warm
trend from September...and remain well above normal through the
first week of October.

At upper levels...the 500mb low which lifted up through the Ohio
Valley and into the Great Lakes during the weekend...will exit
northeast toward the north Atlantic to begin the workweek. A narrow
upper lvl ridge will then build over the Great Lakes Monday and
Tuesday...as a 500mb low deepens over the northern Plains. 850mb
temps in this pattern will warm from around 6c Monday to 8c by
Tuesday. This will generate well above normal afternoon high
temperatures across nrn Michigan...in the mid 60s Monday and upper
60s Tuesday.

At the surface...The surface low over the ern lakes Sunday night
will exit east to begin the workweek. A large area of high pressure
stretching from central Canada through the Plains...will then expand
over the Great Lakes and east coast through Tuesday. Model soundings
and mstr progs showing mid lvl mstr diminishing quickly over the nrn
lakes Monday and Tuesday...with 850-500mb RH diminishing to under 50
percent. However model soundings do show significant low lvl mstr
lingering over the ern lakes between 00z Monday and 12z Monday. Low
lvl mstr over northeast Lower and lingering weak cyclonic flow on
the backside of the exiting sfc low...will be sufficient enough to
mention at least some drizzle or small chance of showers east of
-75 early Monday. Will also mention some fog Monday morning...as
temps fall to near dew pts lingering in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Rain chances will increase late in the week as a cold front moves
through. The cold air behind the front will support lake effect
showers into the weekend as well. There will be a large drop in
temperatures behind the front, perhaps a 15F change in max high over
a couple of days. However, early week temperatures well above normal
mean this drop only takes us back down to near normal, perhaps just
a touch below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

LIFR conditions expected by early Sunday morning. An upper low
moving into MI will continue to lower ceilings and visibilities
especially tonight. In addition...occasional showers are expected
the rest of today into the nighttime hours. Conditions are
expected to improve Sunday midday as ceilings start rising and
visibilities become unrestricted.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Small Craft Advisories are not expected tonight and Sunday.
Lots of clouds...fog and showers around tonight with the storm
system over MI. Stronger winds ahead of the upper low will move east
tonight and Sunday. So expect lighter winds late tonight and Sunday.
As the low moves east showers will become more scattered to
end the weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Farina
LONG TERM...Mayhew/SWR
AVIATION...Farina
MARINE...Farina