000
FXUS63 KAPX 241044
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...
ARE EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

...A LITTLE WET AND GUSTY ON THE WAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DEEP DRY
AIR ALREADY EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT/SFC OCCLUDED FRONT/WEAK SRN STREAM VORTICITY
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WE STILL HAVE A DRY
ATMOSPHERE...WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE WISCONSIN WAS STILL DRY IN THE LOW
LAYERS...WITH SFC TD`S IN THE TEENS STILL. AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR...RAINFALL INTENSITIES WEAKEN. A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OK...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS AREA WAS WORKING WITH STRENGTHENING H8 WIND FIELDS AND BETTER
GULF MOISTURE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORCING:

MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BAND WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN
LATE TODAY...WHILE THE WEAK SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING AND
SHEARING MORE NORTH WITH TIME ALONG WITH AXIS OF STRONGER H8 WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. THE DEEPER BAND OF MOISTURE SHEARS OUT WITH
TIME AND MOVES INTO DRIER AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE WHILE OVERALL H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION STAYS FAIRLY MODEST IN STRENGTH. UPPER TROUGHING
REPLACES THE RIDGING LATER TONIGHT...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE BRINGING
MORE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...THE
THERMAL REGIME IN THE VERTICAL SUGGESTS THAT WET BULBS COULD BE
BELOW ZERO. THE MAIN SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DEEPER GULF TAP WILL WRAP INTO/AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO ROB US OF GETTING INTO ANY GOOD
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

INCREASING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DECAYING BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WORKING INTO THE GTV BAY AREA BY
LATE MORNING. BEST CHANCES AT SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL
BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. ONLY A CHANCE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS NE LOWER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AREA. THE RAIN CHANCE
INCREASES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT AND MAY EVEN MIX WITH SOME
SNOW...BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. DO BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST RAIN
WILL BECOME VERY LIKELY THERE...WITH CONTINUED DECAY OF PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE JUST SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
EVENTUALLY...OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN DOES
WORK IT`S WAY INTO NRN LOWER...MAINLY WEST OF I-75...BUT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DECAY/BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 50S SOUTH...AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC. WITH SE
WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON...IT`S A VERY SNEAKY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30 TO AROUND 40F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

(4/25)FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD HAS HAD QUITE THE SHIFT IN THINK OVER THE
COURSE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, WITH ALL THE MODELS NOW
IN FOR THE NIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS UNANIMOUS, THE 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES,
BEING SQUEEZED AND MOVED TO THE EAST, DRY AIR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS
TOLL ON THE MOISTURE THAT IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE 500 MB LOW TO THE
NORTH AND THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH, WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO BE OVER N
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN THE RIP OFF ZONE. SO AS THE
CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE WEST MOVE IN, THEY BECOME MUCH MORE CHANCY
AS THE DRIER AIR AND THE SPLIT DYNAMICS FORCES THE RAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS LIKELY
POPS IS IN E UPPER WITH THE 500 MB LOW SO CLOSE. AND WITH THE DRY
AIR IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SFC RH WILL BE RATHER LOW, NOT
NECESSARILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOW, BUT APPROACHING IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD AIR
DROPPING INTO E UPPER. IN THIS CASE IT GETS TO -4C, SO THAT AND WITH
THE SFC TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW, WITH MORE SNOW TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, THE POPS
FALL OFF PRETTY FAST OVERNIGHT.

(4/26)SATURDAY...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION,
DRY AIR FOLLOWS, AND KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(4/27)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THIS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS OVERDOING IT
PRECIPITATION, AGAIN. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH BUILDS AND THE MOISTURE
HAS A VERY TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST
ECMWF BACKED OFF ON RAIN GETTING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE 24
HOURS. SO BACKED OFF THE GOING POPS IN THE SW FOR NOW.
(4/28)MONDAY...RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE GFS, AND
HOLDS OFF ON THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUING THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SW COUNTIES, BUT WON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WINDS OUT
AND WE BACK OFF THE RAIN AGAIN. (4/29)TUESDAY...THE GFS IS NOW VERY
WET IN N LOWER, WITH THE ECMWF BACKING OFF SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND GFS MASS FIELDS LOOK SIMILAR. CONSIDERING THE
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF, BUT UNTIL
THERE IS A CONSISTENT IDEA FROM ONE OF THE MODELS, WILL BLEND THESE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. (4/30)WEDNESDAY...AS A CUT OFF 500 MB LOW
MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THICKENING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DAY WITH A NARROW BAND
OF POTENTIAL SPRINKLES FOR THE NW LOWER TAF SITES...WITH CIGS VFR
DUE TO A VERY DRY LOW LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A CORRIDOR OF LOWER
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A BETTER SHOT AT LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
ADVANCING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE TIGHTENING WITH TIME.
STEADY 10-13KT WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. SOME OF THIS
WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE A LIGHTER GRADIENT WITH
THE LOWER PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT OCCUR AT
APN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL ARRIVES. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH THIS LOWER
PRESSURE..BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DO THAT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITING EAST AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. STABILITY
REMAIN NEUTRAL NORTH AND SLIGHTLY STABLE SOUTH...WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN. THAT SAID...SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTING IS EXPECTED AND A LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAN SEE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS
TIME. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD