Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

...Slow clearing today...

High impact weather potential: None.

Overview: Large closed upper level ridge remains fixed along the
mid Atlantic coast. Pseudo zonal flow pattern stretches across the
northern tier of the CONUS with several embedded waves. One strong
short wave is moving through the northern lakes/Ontario region
this morning within the entrance region of a departing upper jet
streak. Attending subtle surface low analyzed across Upper
Michigan this morning with a subtle cold front/trough crossing the
region. This feature managed to spark several clusters of showers
crossing the region overnight, including a nice cluster of showers/
storms moving across central lower Michigan and into the Saginaw
Bay area early this morning.

Today: Short wave trough and attending surface low will push off
to the northeast, allowing high pressure to build across the
region through the day. Ongoing showers/thunder should be out of
the area by 6 pm and I should be able to start the day dry (that
said, recent HRRR runs want to kick out some spotty precip across
northwest lower Michigan this morning...lake response perhaps).
Otherwise, per satellite fog product, lots of low level moisture/
stratus hanging back across the upper Midwest and it will likely
take a good part of the day to thin out the cloud cover,
especially given our ever decreasing sun angle heading into
September. But most areas should eventually see a fair amount of
sunshine through the afternoon.

Tonight: High pressure builds across the region in earnest leading
to a quiet night overall with some fog potential and a bit cooler
compared to the last few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Low amplitude ridging slides across the area Monday, resulting in
few sensible weather concerns.  High temperatures a few degrees
warmer than Sunday as 850mb temperatures continue to climb.  Upper
trough and associated cold front move into the northern lakes Monday
night as low level moisture advection increases with developing
return flow on backside of surface high.  Will introduce some
scattered shower/tstm chances for eastern upper and northwest lower
later Monday night as narrow 925-850mb theta-e ridge noses into the
area, with modest mid level lapse rates between 6-7 degc/km. This
boundary will continue to sag southward through northern Michigan on
Tuesday with scattered showers/tstms.  Deep layer moisture (850-
500mb) lacking with this front, which will limit the coverage of
precipitation and the amounts.  We will likely see increasing
afternoon sunshine, at least over northern areas, behind the
boundary as deep layer drying quickly pushes southward.  It may
become a bit breezy as well, with around 20kts of wind at the top of
mixed layer. A few lingering showers/tstms possible Tuesday evening
over southern parts of our area with otherwise clearing skies.

Remainder of the week features building high amplitude ridging over
the center of the CONUS with a 1027mb surface high over Hudson Bay
nosing southward into the Great Lakes.  This will result in several
days of dry and seasonably cool conditions.  Temperatures near to
possibly slightly below normal, with northern Michigan sitting on
the western edge of 850mb thermal trough.  Some big question marks
heading into the holiday weekend, based largely around the potential
tropical system that may impact the southeast coast.  It does appear
that a front will approach the Great Lakes on Labor Day, although
this timing is very much up in the air based on the aforementioned
tropical system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue overnight in
low overcast/light shower/drizzle environment. Also expecting some
fog/br to impact all taf locations. Conditions begin to improve
later this morning, and especially during the afternoon, as dry
air lifts cigs and any fog lifts. Light winds expected through
this taf period.


Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Winds/waves will remain below marine headline criteria through
Monday. Some stronger westerly winds through today as a low
pressure system tracks northeastward out of the region. High
pressure builds across the Great Lakes later this afternoon and
tonight bringing light winds through Monday.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Keysor
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