Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Warmer on Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridge axis is just upstream of
Michigan this afternoon...with the upper level ridge axis extending
from the Northern Plains thru the Mid Mississippi Valley. Band of
thicker cirrus clouds is drifting thru Michigan attm just ahead of
the surface ridge axis. There is no precip in sight across the Great
Lakes or upstream to the lee of the Rockies and the Mississippi
Valley thanks to strong subsidence and dry air firmly in place
across the entire region. CAA in the wake of the moisture-starved
cold front that passed thru our area overnight has held temps a bit
at bay this afternoon...with most locations in the upper 50s to mid

Surface ridge will slide thru Michigan tonight with the upper level
ridge moving into the Great Lakes on Friday. Strong subsidence and
dry air will maintain dry wx thru Friday...along with mainly clear
skies. Low temps tonight will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s as
low levels decouple and winds diminish. Strengthening low level WAA
on the backside of the surface ridge axis will boost afternoon highs
into the mid 60s to lower 70s on Friday. Enjoy!


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Mild Saturday; Showers arrive late Saturday night-Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: A more active pattern shaping up for the second
half of the weekend as ridging aloft gradually shifts downstream
throughout the day Saturday ahead of a potent shortwave trekking
across the nation`s midsection. This approaching trough will push a
cold front across the region during the late Saturday night/early
Sunday time frame. Guidance continues to peg an elongated ribbon of
impressive late-season moisture along and just ahead of the front
with associated showers sliding west to east across the entire
forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Gauging shower chances/timing
Saturday night into Sunday.

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through the day
Saturday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow ahead of the
aforementioned approaching wave is expected to bring a bit of
gustiness at times, most noticeably Saturday afternoon with 15-20 kt
gusts 25+ kts over Lake Michigan/Huron. It`s not
completely out of the question that an isolated shower pops up over
eastern Upper Saturday afternoon as weak isentropic lift and subtle
mid level energy rotates through the area, but that will likely be
more so the exception rather than the rule.

Clouds increase in earnest from west to east Saturday afternoon and
evening as an elongated cold front extending from near Hudson Bay
into the lower Mississippi Valley approaches northern Michigan. As
was alluded to above, an area of enhanced moisture ahead of and
along the eastward moving boundary is expected to provide increasing
shower chances across far NW Lower late Saturday night and across
the remainder of the region during the day Sunday before the front
completely clears the forecast area by Sunday evening. Limited
marginal instability may be enough to support a rumble of two of
thunder, mainly west of US-131 late Saturday night, but low
confidence precludes thunder chances from entering the forecast at
this juncture. Otherwise, little in the way of high impact weather
is anticipated with this system.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

At upper levels, a strong 500mb ridge over the eastern one third of
the country during the weekend will push east Sunday, while a 500mb
trough sharpening over the Plains pushes over the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. A weaker clipper will drop into the Great Lakes Thursday.
Associated 850mb temps will fall from around 8c to begin the
upcoming work week, to around -4c by midweek. This pattern will
generate above normal temps in the 60s Monday across northern
Michigan before temps fall to more seasonal readings in the upper
40s and mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the sfc, a very active pattern setting up across the Great Lakes
next week, as a storm system pushes into the region Monday night
before lifting into Quebec Wednesday. A second system pushes over
the nrn Plains and into the region Thursday. This pattern will
generate several rounds of rain showers across northern Michigan
through the period, the best chances of widespread rain on Tuesday
and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Surface ridge axis will build over Michigan tonight...with the
upper level ridge axis building into our area on Friday. Solid VFR
conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites
thru the 24 hour period. LLWS will develop around PLN tonight as
low levels decouple and winds just off the deck strengthen. West
winds will continue to gust to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds will
shift to the S/SW tonight and decrease to 10 kts or less.


Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for much of our
nearshore areas thru this evening. Conditions will continue to reach
SCA criteria for most of Lake Michigan Friday into Friday evening as
southerly winds strengthen again between the departing surface ridge
axis and an approaching cold front. Dry wx will continue across our
entire area Friday thru Saturday and much of Saturday night. Chances
of showers will quickly increase late Saturday night and Sunday
ahead of that approaching cold front.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ341-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.


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