Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 171045
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

...COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...MAY GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...GENERATING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-172015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-172015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-172015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-172015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-172015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
645 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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