Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 011957
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...WET WEATHER RETURNS...

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND SWING INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER...WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN WELL OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-020815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.23 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.64 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.65-0.87 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-020815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.17 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.46 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.60-0.72 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-020815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.21 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.26 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.55-0.79 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.71-0.88 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-020815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.19 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.26 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.59-0.90 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN UNTIL
                    1400...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.73-0.91 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-020815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.60 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.66-0.84 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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