Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 220729
SWODY3
SPC AC 220728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of
the southern/central Plains.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western
states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the
Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across
the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to
occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into
western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response
will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from
the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a
prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the
northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS.
Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface
dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS
by late Sunday afternoon.

Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the
ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly
unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is
forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture,
cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help
compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by
late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears
sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe
hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more
uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow
window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any
persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem
with a strengthening low-level jet.

Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly
Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK
in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity
should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken.
But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as
thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing
an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts
of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline.

..Gleason.. 03/22/2024

$$


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