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000
FXUS64 KLCH 280925
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Well, get ready because this forecast package includes a lot of
updates with quite a big upgrade in wording and expectation for
the next 24 to 36 hours.

To start with hazards... The Wind Advisory was cut back down to
the HWY 190 corridor for much of today. High pressure has moved
further east allowing for the pressure gradient to relax in
comparison to yesterday. Strong south-southeast winds with gusts
up to 40 MPH along the coastline are still likely, but further
inland, expect breezy conditions below Advisory criteria
(sustained 20 to 34 MPH).
Due to the continuation of long fetch over the Gulf, waters will
continue piling up along the coastline. As we move towards high
tide, expect water levels 2 or so feet above tide predictions
which would result in coastal flooding. Areas most concerning are
Jefferson and south Orange counties, and Cameron and south
Calcasieu parishes which are under a Coastal Flood Warning. All
other coastal zones are in a Coastal Flood Advisory for waters
1.5 to 2.0 feet above tide predictions.

The mention of an upgrade in wording for this forecast package
comes due to a sudden upgrade to Slight Risk for severe weather
for all Texas counties and Louisiana parishes west of I-49;
Marginal Risk of severe weather east of I-49. A series of low
pressure areas are moving across the central US underneath mid
level shortwave trof. This trof axis swings towards east Texas
late today before another shortwave pulse develops and moves
overtop Louisiana on Monday. There is already a long area of
thunderstorms which developed from the main shortwave that now
stretches from the Upper Midwest southwestward into southwest
Texas. The expectation is for storms to repeatedly die off and
redevelop along this line as it moves east underneath the
primary shortwave trof today. At this time, we are now expecting
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to arrive into southeast
Texas sometime late this evening into early Monday morning. Short
term guidance is struggling to sort out exactly what time this
feature will move through our region with earliest arrival being
about 10 PM tonight and latest arrival a few hours after midnight.

Severe concerns with this line are for some tornadoes and strong
to severe thunderstorms; some hail up to 1 inch. Other concern
is for very efficient rainfall associated with the line that may
result in areas of flash flooding. It is hard to say where the
line of greatest rainfall will set up, but with the rain we`ve had
recently, it`s not going to take much to cause flooding in urban
centers nor for creeks to come out of their beds. QPF forecasts
and rainfall total probabilities have only increased and now
place 3 to 5 inches with some higher amounts across much of
southeast Texas and central/southwest Louisiana from late Sunday
into Tuesday morning. The bulk of rainfall is expected from after
midnight tonight through Monday evening.

As of now, we urge folks to prepare for severe weather and flash
flooding as we start this next work week.

The secondary trof moves overhead Monday afternoon which should
assist with moving the bulk of showers and thunderstorms out of
the area by evening. However, the boundary these storms are tied
to won`t clear down into the GoM under weakening flow aloft.
Expect the boundary to move back onshore on Tuesday with another
round of showers and storms (lighter rain and lower severe risk)
Tuesday afternoon.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Weak SFC and mid level ridging exists to the east giving way to more
of a trof across the region by mid week. Meanwhile the southern
stream jet, while not strong, remains across the Gulf Coast through
this period. Guidance continues to show multiple disturbances
traversing the flow from mid to late week, with an eventual cold
front approaching by late week into the weekend. It appears this
frontal bndry will become stationary meandering through the weekend.

Given the ample moisture and instability, daily showers and
thunderstorms look like an increasing likelihood. Severe weather is
not out of the question given the presence of the disturbances and
jet support, but confidence is on the low side. An active and
unsettled period of weather with increased chances for above average
rainfall has much higher confidence.

Daytime highs remain a nearly copy and paste forecast through the
entire extended. Highs each afternoon will be in the middle to
upper 80s, warmest into the weekend ahead of the frontal bndry.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Windy conditions will persist at all area terminals through the
taf period as the region remains sandwiched between a large
surface high along the east coast and a deep low centered over the
central plains. MVFR ceilings will prevail this morning before
improving to VFR by late morning. A slowly approaching frontal
boundary will approach the region from the west this evening
initializing convection across Southeast Texas after 21Z with
activity expanding into southwest Louisiana by late this evening.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure and low pressure
in the central US is starting to relax due to high moving
eastward. While winds today will maintain their strong south-
southeast fetch, generally expect winds to be lower than yesterday
with further decreases by Monday morning. Waves will be slower to
yield and will remain 5 to 7 feet in at least 20 to 60 nm waters
through Monday afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid
to upper level trough approaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...

A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the
Southern Plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow
for a prolonged period of strong and gusty onshore winds to
continue through Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for all
waters continues through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will
slowly subside by Sunday night and Monday as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase
Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper
level trough approaches the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  65  78  64 /  20  60 100  20
LCH  84  69  80  70 /  20  60  90  20
LFT  87  73  82  70 /  10  30  90  40
BPT  83  71  83  70 /  30  70  80  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073-
     074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...66