Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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622 FXUS64 KLCH 111608 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1108 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Only minor adjustments made to the forecast this morning, with the big picture of a warm and dry day amid ENE SFC flow (a little gusty near the coast) and a mix of mid/high clouds and sun still on track. Extended the exercise caution headline through the rest of the afternoon for most of the Gulf waters with winds expected to remain around 15KT sustained with gusts 20-25KT. Enjoy the break in the rain while it lasts. 13 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 IR satellite imagery shows quite a bit of mid and high level cloud cover streaming east across the area. Some enhancement in cold cloud top temperatures has been noted from east central TX into central LA, coincident with a narrow band of light showers apparent on KLCH radar, near a weak convergence zone around 850 MB. A few obs sites have indicated lower clouds and even a few sprinkles reaching the surface. Otherwise, weak high pressure prevails at the surface with light northeast winds across the area. Temperatures are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, while a drier airmass has yielded dewpoints between 10 to 20 degrees lower, providing a rather pleasant night across the region. Aloft, modest shortwave ridging has developed over TX, in advance of a large low pressure system over the SW states per recent UA analysis and WV imagery. Despite a break from the rain today, conditions over the coming days unfortunately do not appear favorable for swollen rivers to recede and soggy soils to dry out, as a series of disturbances look to bring increased rain chances from Sunday into Monday and again from Thursday into Friday. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Dry conditions should prevail today as weak high pressure at the surface and aloft transit the region. Skies will likely stay mostly cloudy as mid and high level clouds continue to stream over the region. Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the lower 80s this afternoon as winds gradually shift more easterly. The upper low over the SW US will slowly move east tonight into Sunday, with flow aloft becoming more west to southwest as low level winds become more southeasterly. This will begin a moist advection pattern with PWATs climbing to between 1.7 and 2.0 inches Sunday. Weak disturbances traversing the region in advance of the low will provide enough lift to produce some widely scattered showers and storms late tonight into early Sunday. As the upper low moves into the central plains on Sunday, surface low pressure will develop across western TX which will aid in lifting a warm front across the region. Convection will become more scattered to numerous through the day Sunday, concentrated primarily along the warm front, with some of the highest rainfall amounts located from portions of east TX into N/central LA. Rain chances could briefly diminish late Sunday night into Monday morning, with another round of showers and storms again on Monday as the low pressure system approaches the MS Valley. Potentially heavy rainfall can be expected again across the region. Storm rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible from tonight through Monday night, along with some locally higher amounts. While there is still some spread among the guidance regarding where the heaviest rainfall totals can be expected, the latest ERO from WPC shows much of the area in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of 4), but the potential for a MDT risk is not out of the question and may be necessitated in future outlooks as this situation evolves. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 At the start of the period the area will see showers and thunderstorms moving to the east of the area by Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves through the region giving us a brief break from heavy rainfall potential through Wednesday. Moisture begins to return late Wednesday into Wednesday night as high moves off to the east. As the next disturbance moves into the region early Thursday the signals for heavy rainfall returns to the region as PW`s get above 2 inches. While much of the area is under the risk for very heavy rainfall most signals continue across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana which have been hit by multiple rounds of heavy rainfall the past month and half. The greatest question is how fast does the activity move to the east Friday with differences in the guidance on timing of the front. Temperatures through the period will be near to slightly above normal more so on the low temperatures. 27 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as BKN (to sometimes SCT) cirrus streams over the region. NE winds will veer more easterly today, with speeds around 10 KT diminishing to less than 10 KT tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and lower from the west tonight. While conditions should remain VFR, cigs could trend toward MVFR at BPT by 12Z Sunday. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Moderate offshore flow this morning will gradually diminish and shift more east to southeast through the day. Onshore flow will become better established on Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to the east, and strengthen with lower pressure developing over the plains. Onshore flow will persist through midweek until passage of a cold front. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase tonight into Sunday, with off and on rain chances expected through midweek. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 64 80 65 / 0 20 40 80 LCH 85 69 83 72 / 10 20 60 60 LFT 86 69 84 73 / 10 10 40 60 BPT 85 70 82 73 / 10 20 70 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...24