Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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123 FXUS64 KLCH 082335 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A very warm and humid day has unfolded. Most areas have topped out in the upper 80s to nearly 90F; ironically the water content in the air (high humidity) has kept temps from hitting 90 area wide. This hasn`t stopped heat indices from soaring - areas like Jasper and DeRidder have HI`s over 100F this afternoon. It`s official... the first real taste of Summer is here. The feed of warm, humid air will continue through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front boundary. Temps in the daytime will top out similar to day - mid to upper 80s with some areas seeing 90 degrees; humidity pushing the heat index into the upper 90s to isolated lower 100s. Late tomorrow (Thursday) the cold front approaches. This boundary will be the focus for development of showers and thunderstorms across north Louisiana and east Texas. Storm motion indicates most shower and thunderstorm will skirt across north central Louisiana in the late evening or early morning hours of Friday. However, in the event storms take on a more southern track, there does remain the chance of storms as far south as I-10 (the chance of this solution is much lower). With storms, the primary concerns are damaging winds and hail up to an inch. To account for this concern, the Storms Prediction Center has placed all of central Louisiana and down to the I-10 corridor in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Another concern is for the chance of flooding rains with any convection. Areas north of I-10 have been included in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (1 out of 4). In the event of training rainfall or heavy downpours, there could be some flash flood risk. Most convection should be pretty progressive, so the chance of this is low, but not zero. Those concerned parties should continue to monitor forecast trends in coming forecast cycles tonight and tomorrow. Much cooler and drier conditions to follow on Friday in the wake of the cold front passage. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The long-term portion of the forecast period begins on Saturday with the area in a nwrly flow aloft behind a departing ern CONUS trof while sfc high pressure extending across the Plains yields a nerly low-level flow...with the combo of these features maintaining a dry and pleasant day/night across the forecast area. However this looks to be short-lived as by Sunday, a digging shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while the sfc high pushes ewd and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and linger through Monday night before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front into the area. With the potential for potentially heavy rains during this period, WPC is highlighting mainly our TX zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday (the remainder of the area is generally in a marginal risk). By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out over the region, with return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly. Along with weak/nil capping and another weak disturbance looking to scoot past the area, small POPs linger in the forecast through Wednesday. With cool (IE seasonal) temps expected to begin the long-term after Friday`s frontal passage, expect to see a warming trend by late in the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for highs with mins back to pushing 70 degrees. 25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR conditions will continue as warm moist air from the gulf continues to move onshore. These ceilings will remain stubbornly low for the rest of the TAF period with periods of VFR near 19Z tomorrow. Fog will also be a concern tonight as winds being to lessen across the region. Visibility is expected to drop below 3 miles but not much lower than that. After sunrise conditions will rapidly improve. Winds will remain onshore for the TAF period but will slowly weaken. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. Areas of patchy to isolated dense fog will be possible tonight through Thursday morning. Forecast confidence is not high enough to warrant a Marine Fog Advisory tonight, although if one becomes necessary it will be issued. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves across the area. 66/11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 66 83 / 10 20 50 0 LCH 75 88 71 87 / 0 10 10 10 LFT 78 91 74 88 / 10 10 20 10 BPT 76 88 71 89 / 0 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14