599
FXUS62 KMLB 180211
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1011 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A few lightning storms have developed along the sea breeze
collision this evening and are currently making their way towards
the coast, where they will drift offshore into late evening. Once
this activity moves offshore, dry conditions are forecast through
the overnight hours. The main threats with these storms are
lightning strikes and heavy downpours.

Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Saturday
morning west of a line from Orlando to Lake George. However,
models have backed off from any fog overnight, leading to lower
confidence. Nonetheless, widespread dense fog is not expected.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Some patchy fog/low stratus will be possible from around MCO
westward, but models have backed off from showing this solution,
so confidence is low. For now, have left out a mention of any MVFR
or lower VIS/CIGs, but this will need to be monitored overnight. A
few showers and lightning storms are moving offshore from the
Brevard and Treasure Coasts this evening and are forecast to
diminish by around 3Z. Then, VFR conditions prevailing. Light
winds overnight become westerly around 8-10kts Saturday morning,
before backing south-southeastward into the afternoon along the
coast, as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast along the coast, though VCTS will be possible
as far inland as MCO/ISM after around 20Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida.
Southeast winds at 8-14kts will veer offshore overnight. Winds will
then back south-southeast into the afternoon Saturday at 10-15kts.
Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore.
Isolated lighting storms are forecast into this evening which
will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to water
lighting strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are
forecast again Saturday afternoon with the potential to produce
wind gusts up to 40mph and cloud to water lighting strikes.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  72  86 /  10  40  40  70
MCO  74  95  75  87 /  20  30  40  80
MLB  73  93  74  88 /  20  40  30  80
VRB  72  96  73  90 /  20  40  30  80
LEE  75  93  74  85 /  10  30  50  70
SFB  73  96  74  87 /  10  30  40  80
ORL  75  95  75  88 /  10  30  40  80
FPR  71  96  73  90 /  20  40  20  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Leahy/Tollefsen