Text Products for FWS Issued by MPX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FNUS73 KMPX 211904
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Perch Lake WPA...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on April 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Perch Lake WPA, expect sunny skies to continue with
temperatures in the upper 50s through the next few hours before we
fall back to the mid to upper 30s overnight. Winds will remain
westerly at 10-15mph with a few gusts to 20-25mph especially just
off ground level. RH will remain in the low to mid 20s percent
through the evening before increasing as temperatures drop back
tonight. Winds will also begin to decrease by the evening but only
drop below 10mph sustained by the early morning tomorrow.
.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................25 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 14 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /105800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /105800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  60  60  60  59  55  51  48  45  44  42  41
RH..............25  24  23  22  24  29  33  39  45  49  55  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  13  10  6   6   7   7   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  20  18  16  14  10  9   9   12  13  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 3.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  18  13  8   7   9   12  14  14  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 12 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (98600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph shifting to the south 14 to
                    17 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. South winds 13 to 22 mph shifting to
                    the southwest 18 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (87800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (116000
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 23 mph increasing to southwest 28
                    to 36 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hasenstein
Requested by...Ryan Williams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411621.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan_williams@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
