Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
397
FNUS73 KMQT 101101
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for West Branch/Mormon Creek Rx...USFS - Hiawatha National Forest
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION... High pressure currently over Upper Michigan will give
way to a clipper low pressure system this afternoon bringing in some
showers to the prescribed burn spot likely after 8 PM EDT. Ahead of
these showers, mixing will result in min RHs around 35% with
potential for near 30%. One limiting factor for lower RHs is the lake
breeze of Lake Michigan bringing in some moisture off the lake and
helping RHs recover some. The arrival time is expected sometime late
this morning into the early afternoon and will result in a brief
period of variable winds. Luckily mixing will not result in stronger
winds with gusts expected to remain below 15 mph. RHs will recover
this evening as showers arrive and the cold front passes through.
Chances for showers continue overnight into Saturday morning. Gradual
clearing is expected on Saturday with higher min RHs in the mid 50s
and northerly winds with gusts up to 20 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........39 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
the morning, then shifting to the west early in
the afternoon shifting to the south 7 to 9 mph
late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming north around 4 mph late in
the morning, then shifting to the west early in
the afternoon shifting to the south 6 to 7 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1600 ft
AGL increasing to 5600-6500 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (20) at ignition. Max...good (507.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......23 decreasing to 22 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 7 8 9 14 20 25 24 23 22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............39 44 50 55 59 60 60 60 60 59
Dewpoint........32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
RH..............75 66 52 42 37 36 35 35 36 37
33 ft wind dir..N N N N W W W S S S
33 ft wind spd..3 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9
20 ft wind dir..N N N N W W W S S S
20 ft wind spd..2 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7
Wind gust.......6 5 5 5 6 6 6 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.6 3.3 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.6
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
VIndx kt-ft/100.2 11 20 24 23 19 19 33 44 51
Ceiling (kft)...23 24 24 25 24 23 22 23 23 24
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the evening. Chance of
rain showers in the late evening and overnight,
then slight chance of rain showers early in the
morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 98 percent.
Dewpoint............36 increasing to 39 overnight.
33-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming north around 5 mph after 3
am.
20-foot winds.......South winds up to 7 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming north around 4 mph after 3
am.
Mixing height.......2400-4200 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1000 ft AGL
early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (6.0-457.0).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.09 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......19 decreasing to 1.1.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35 47 60 67 73 79 78 77 76 77 78 80
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 30 40 40 40 40 40 30 30 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............58 56 53 50 47 45 43 42 42 42 42 42
Dewpoint........34 34 35 36 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 39
RH..............40 44 50 58 66 76 83 89 93 92 91 90
33 ft wind dir..S S S S S S NE NE NE N N N
33 ft wind spd..9 9 9 6 6 6 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S NE NE NE N N N
20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 5 5 5 2 2 2 4 4 4
Wind gust.......10 10 10 8 8 8 5 5 5 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.46 29 13 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1
Ceiling (kft)...19 13 7.5 6.3 5.1 3.9 3.0 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
rain showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Dewpoint............41.
33-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 12 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 5400-5900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (23.0-409.0) increasing to
excellent (1239.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.02 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......1.1 increasing to 7.1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........75 66 70 69 54 35
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10 20 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............41 44 47 51 55 56
Dewpoint........40 42 41 41 41 41
RH..............95 92 80 69 60 55
33 ft wind......N 7 N 7 N 10 N 12 N 12 N 12
20 ft wind......N 6 N 6 N 8 N 10 N 10 N 10
Wind gust.......8 9 11 16 16 16
Mix hgt (ft)....400 800 1600 3300 5400 5900
Haines index....2 2 2 2 3 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.2 9 26 67 124 135
Ceiling (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.5 3.5 7.1 7.1
$$
Forecaster...Jablonski
Requested by...Mitch Glenn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413623.1/MQT
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mitchell.glenn@usda.gov