246
FXUS61 KRLX 110015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
815 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers
again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses.
Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to
slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while
clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should
continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper
level short wave trough exits by sunset.

Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into
the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to
form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture
for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should
dissipate after daybreak Saturday.

Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora
activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a
clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather
Prediction Center`s website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic
Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov.

Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a
band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with
daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high
enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and
even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote
gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C
at least across the north.

Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Remaining precipitation largely exits to the east by daybreak Sunday.

Ridging building into the region then yields mainly dry conditions
through the day Monday amidst a warm-up. Deep southwesterly flow
associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect
moisture back into the region Monday afternoon but any precipitation
is expected to hold off until Monday night

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Upper level forcing in the form of an upper low emerging from the
Central Rockies arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning
yielding an uptick in precipitation coverage. The risk for severe
storms through this period appears low given limited opportunity for
surface heating and poor mid-level lapse rates. As flow weakens
Tuesday night into Wednesday, could see some slower moving storm
cores that could present a risk for some localized water issues, and
WPC has painted a marginal risk for this over the region.

Broader scale, but still transient ridging returns Thursday with any
lingering risk for showers and storms becoming primarily diurnally
driven. The next synoptically driven chance of precipitation arrives
late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

Isolated showers continue to shift southeast across portions of
the area through 2-3Z Saturday, potentially causing an isolated
and very brief MVFR VSBY restriction here or there. Otherwise,
VFR conditions persist into tonight, with valley fog being the
main concern, along with the potential for MVFR stratus in/near
the higher terrain. Restrictions associated with stratus are
low confidence. There is higher confidence in valley fog
development overnight, with MVFR to LIFR VSBY restrictions
progged (depending on the terminal). Any fog and/or stratus
lifts/dissipates by ~ 13Z on Saturday, leading to a return of
widespread VFR in advance of another round of rain. SCT showers
and ISOL thunderstorms move across the area throughout Saturday
afternoon, resulting in brief MVFR VSBY at times.

Light and variable or calm flow is expected tonight. Strengthening
southwest flow is expected on Saturday. Wind gusts of 15-20 kts
are possible during the afternoon through the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions
overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR
VSBY is possible on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 05/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW