Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 192340
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected tonight into Friday as a
low moves southward along the west coast of Alaska. Over the past
few days the models have had some difficulty in handling this
low. They not been in good agreement in terms of the placement of
the low. In addition, none of the models have not done a great
job of handling strength of the low. For this shift we will go
with the GFS since it is closest to the placement of the low. We
will manually increase the winds near the low in order to try to
compensate for the models not quite resolving the proper strength
of the low.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 496 dam low currently near Point Lay will move
over Kotzebue Sound by 4 AM Friday. By 4 PM on Friday the low will
be near Nome and by 4 AM Saturday it will be near Emmonak. The low
will then persist over the Yukon Delta through Sunday night. As
the flow becomes southerly Friday night temperatures aloft over
the eastern Interior will warm (for example the H850 temperature
over Fairbanks will warm from -16C tonight to -9C Saturday
evening).

At the surface, a 980 mb low near Point lay will move 60 nm west
of Kivalina as a 980 mb low by 4am Fri, to near Nome as a 985 mb
low by 4pm Fri then weak slowly. A 992 mb low 60 nm north of
Barter Island will persist through Friday, then move to near
Barrow as a 992 mb low by 4am Sat.

West Coast and Western Interior: Winds will increase along the
west coast as the low dives south of the Bering Strait tonight.
Snow showers will also increase in coverage along the west coast
as the low moves south. We opted to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory for zones 207 (south of Cape Krusenstern) and 213 with
the package this afternoon. The increased winds combined with
falling snow will result in blowing snow reducing visibiltiy at
time. Conditions in zone 207 should improve late Friday as the
low continues to dive south. For zone 213 snow and blowing snow
will continue through Saturday evening before conditions start to
improve. In addition to the snow and blowing snow there is at
least some possibility that freezing spray from the Bering Sea
could be blown onshore by the strong winds resulting in small
amounts of ice accumulating on structures close to the shore.
High surf is also a concern due to the strong northerly winds in
zones 207 and 213 with this system. High surf advisories are
ongoing in the aforementioned areas.

North slope and Brooks Range: The winter weather advisories that
were out for zones 201 and 202 have been cancelled. Some light
snow showers currently ongoing from Barrow west will continue
tonight into Friday night before diminishing on Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior: Some snow showers tonight in the
far southeastern Interior that will persist into early Friday.
Aside from this precipitation will be generally limited through
Sunday in the Interior. Last night was the coldest night of the
season for may Interior locations. Even colder temperatures are
expected for tonight. For example, Fairbanks had a low of 14
degrees this morning and temperatures tonight will fall into the
single digits. Even though temperatures aloft will warm, there
will be less clouds as well resulting in temperatures in the
single digits for Fairbanks for the next few nights.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

$$

OCT 17



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