Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 022056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
EARLY FRIDAY. THE RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN AND THE REMNANTS ARE
CUTOFF IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE AND BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR
MACKENZIE BAY AND THE LOW NEAR BETHEL WILL CREATE AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INITIALIZE MARINE ADVISORIES FROM ABOUT BARROW EASTWARD BEGINNING
THU MORNING.

CURRENT LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW WILL BE NEAR COLD BAY BY LATE WED
NIGHT AND THEN TO NEAR BETHEL BY THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE EXCEPT
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR THAT WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850H WILL COOL BEGINNING SAT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
BY SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS
INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST IF MODELS CONTINUE THE
TREND. THE COOLING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.

IT APPEARS THAT AFTER THIS WEEKEND ALL OF THE MODELS DO INDICATE
THAT NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE RELEGATED BACK INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF SEP 15



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