Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







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