Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA






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