Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 2 INCHES.

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS.

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












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