Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 271354
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
954 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions are forecast through Memorial Day
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another hot day on tap with increasing humidity today. Dewpoints
are expected to rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s so it will
start to feel uncomfortable for some. Highs are expected to be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s with around 90 in the mid Hudson Valley.
Refer to the climate section for some record highs. We issued a
Special Weather Statement earlier this morning addressing this
early season heat. The boundary located across the region is
difficult to locate and appears to be across the local area in a
north-south orientation. This boundary is expected to lift
northeastward as a warm front today. Aloft the upper ridge will
strengthen over the region. Isolated to scattered convection
should develop across the area this afternoon...however guidance
appears to be overdone with coverage with only some weak forcing
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We will see increasing humidity and an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms as we go through the short term forecast
period.

For tonight a ridge of high pressure will be anchored to our
south as a warm front tries to nose its way into our forecast area
from the eastern Great Lakes. Expect widely scattered to scattered
showers and thunderstorms this evening with the activity
diminishing overnight. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

On Saturday the warm front remains just west of our region as a
back door cold front starts to drop southwestward into northern
New York and northern New England. MLMUCAPES rise to 500 to 1500
J/KG Saturday afternoon. So once again expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours. Saturday
looks to be the hottest day with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s. In addition dewpoints will rise into the 60s to near 70
resulting in heat indices in the 90s with mid 90s in the Hudson
Valley.

The convective activity will die down again on Saturday evening
with mainly dry conditions overnight. It will continue to be warm
and muggy with lows only dropping into the 60s on Saturday night.

Sunday looks to be the most active day of the weekend as the
chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the day
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon as MLMUCAPES rise to 1500-2500 J/KG. A cold front will
be dropping into the eastern Great Lakes late in the day on Sunday
and into western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late
Sunday night. This will keep the threat of showers and
thunderstorms going into Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows Sunday night in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The end of the Holiday weekend will remain warm and humid, and
showery, as some tropical moisture draws northward, well ahead of a
cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region. It is possible
that a period of moderate-heavy steady rain occurs, especially
Monday morning from around I-90 southward, followed by more showery
conditions for the afternoon with the approach of the front.
High PWAT`s may favor some heavy downpours. Max temps will be lower
than previous days, due to clouds and at least some rain, with max
temps mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Showers may linger into
Monday evening, before decreasing later at night. Monday
night/Tuesday morning low temperatures should fall into the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

For Tuesday-Thursday, expect generally dry conditions as high
pressure slowly builds southeast from east central Canada. An upper
level trough and secondary cold front could trigger an isolated
shower Tuesday, mainly across the Adirondacks and southern VT,
otherwise dry through Thursday. Humidity levels should become more
comfortable, with daytime highs mainly in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight low temperatures should be in the 50s, with some 40s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building off the eastern seaboard will allow a warm
and increasingly humid air mass to envelope the region through
tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today. Isolated showers will
be possible this morning at KPOU as a weak upper level disturbance
passes. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will then develop
this afternoon. Have included a PROB30 group in the TAFS for
21Z-24Z/Fri for the TAF sites, which appears to be the most
likely time for these showers. Did not include mention of thunder
at this time, but can not rule out this possibility.

After sunset, VFR conditions are expected this evening, with some
MVFR visibilities developing toward and especially after
06Z/Saturday, especially at KGFL/KPSF and KPOU. There could even
be embedded IFR visibilities, especially at any TAF sites where
rainfall occurs this afternoon/early evening.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest for much of
Friday at 5-10 KT, with some gusts of up to 15 KT possible,
especially at KGFL and KALB. South to southwest winds should
become light/variable once again after sunset through Friday
night.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions are forecast through Memorial Day
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 45 to 55 percent
this afternoon...recover to 75 to 100 percent tonight...and drop
to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday.

Winds are expected to be southwest at 5 to 10 mph today...light
and variable tonight...and southwest to west around 5 mph on
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next week is expected to be highly
variable as much of it will come from thunderstorms. NWS WPC
forecasts between one half inch and two inches of rain during the
next week, with the highest amounts over the southern Adirondacks
and the least over Litchfield County, CT. Widespread river
flooding is not expected, but localized urban or poor drainage
flooding is possible where heavier downpours from thunderstorms
occur especially on Sunday and Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 27th...94 degrees 1914
May 28th...91 degrees 1911
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978
May 28th...88 degrees 1988
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 27th...91 degrees 1965
May 28th...90 degrees 2012
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/11
CLIMATE...IAA



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