Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 041804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON....TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW DOES NOT LOOK AS WET AS TODAY IT WILL BE
REMAIN RATHER COOL AND CLOUDY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT...AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS
MOST OF OUR REGION DUE TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT LOOKS AS IF PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AS THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE LIFTS BY TO OUR EAST.

THE LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUED TO REVEAL A RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST BOUT OF RAIN. A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. ALSO...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE
INTERSPERSED WITH THIS RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO HAVE "FLAT-LINED" DUE TO AIR BEING COOLED
BY RAIN...AND ALREADY A COOL MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN WITH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP AROUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA...MAKING THE 4TH DAY IN A ROW...WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.

BUMPED UP THE SOUTHEAST WIND A LITTLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING PAST 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT...AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES OUT AND THE FORCING ABATES. STILL...A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE YET ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY...AS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME. WITH A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN ONCE AGAIN AND SHOULD BE AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FAIRLY WET DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...BUT
AGAIN TRENDS RESULTING IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND I-90
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL...BUT MAY
MODERATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
MAIN FORCING SHIFTS WEST OF THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH THE PESKY CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS UNSETTLED...BUT A TREND TOWARDS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY OPENS WITH THE PESKY CUTOFF LOW STILL NEAR NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT FINALLY OPENS UP...AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SAT
MORNING...AS ONE MORE IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE DECAYING CUTOFF
WITH A CHC SHOWERS TO START THE DAY. ANY AFTERNOON ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC/WPC
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM S/SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING TOWARDS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A QUICKER
PASSAGE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM FOR THE ALY FORECAST AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST JUST YET. EXTREMELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z GFS /7-8C/KM/...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HIGH CHC POPS ARE USED EAST OF THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN DACK AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. SLIGHT CHC AND LOW CHC POPS ARE USED IN THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT. LOWS SAT
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE U50S
TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL BE BRISK DUE TO THE STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS...AND DEEPER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER COMMENCING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR A EXTENDED TIME OF FAIR AND BENIGN WEATHER. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK...BUT BY TUESDAY H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +3 TO +6C WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U50S
TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
IFR...AT MAINLY KALB AND KPSF THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MIGHT
DROP TO IFR EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRATUS COOL DOWN.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE SOME DRIER AIR COULD PREVENT THAT FROM
HAPPENING. FOR NOW...HELD ALL TAF SITES AT LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED). CIGS LOOK TO SLOWLY REACH ABOVE MVFR TOMORROW EXCEPT
HOLDING AT HIGH END MVFR AT KPSF.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY. MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM THE E TO NE 5-10KTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 TO
75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN INTENSITY MUCH OF THE TIME.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE
PROCESS OF GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY
OR ONLY SHOW SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV


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