Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 070043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE A BIT...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EST...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND MAY LIMIT
HOW COLD TEMPS CAN ULTIMATELY GET DESPITE DEEP SNOW COVER AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE THE TEMPS BECOME MORE STEADY OR
FALL MORE SLOWLY AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. THE CLOUDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT THIN ON SATELLITE...BUT SOMEWHAT THICKER CLOUDS MAY THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SO...VERY TRICKY CALL ON OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH OUR
EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MINS
THAN INDICATED SHOULD THE CLOUDS REMAIN THIN AND/OR DISSIPATE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE DAY SAT INTO SAT
EVENING. INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE MORNING. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE
GEORGE REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT EVENING.
TRICKIER CALL FOR VALLEY AREAS...AS SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH VALLEY
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FOR VALLEYS FURTHER SOUTH...THESE
CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. A W/NW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
ALSO SUPPORT SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY LATE SAT AFTN-EVE. SNOWFALL AMTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES BY LATE SAT NT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NW HERKIMER CO. FURTHER E
AND S...MOST SNOWFALL AMTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. SAT MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS...WITH 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S...ALTHOUGH SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY...POCKETS OF COLDER MIN TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN...OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE...AND
FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
COLD POOL PASSES SHOULD PROMOTE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED BRIEF SQUALLS.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS OF SNOW WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW RAINDROPS INITIALLY MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FOR SOME
VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY/GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THIS DEEP MIXING MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN
VALLEY AREAS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS MAY OCCUR.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY/S UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESP EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY. SUN NT/MON AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MON MAX
TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 30-35 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
THAT WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...WHICH WILL
LIMIT ANY INTERACTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. ON TUESDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
SET UP A RETURN FLOW THAT WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE MAJOR EFFECT BEING PRIMARILY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. DID GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT COUPLED WITH WEAK
DYNAMICS MAY SQUEEZE OUT A SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. ANOTHER MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT NOT
AS COLD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER.

REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S IN VALLEY AREAS. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...AS HIGHS SPIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY
CRACKING 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE LAST TIME
MOST LOCATIONS SAW TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 WAS LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE APPROACHES LATER SATURDAY WITH THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KGFL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER



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