Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 300449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO COMMENCE. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTIME HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARYING
TEMPERATURES. IN THE CAPITAL REGION...THANKS TO A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
QUITE WARM...AROUND 70. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER AREAS HAD MUCH LESS
WIND...OR NONE...AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED CLOSER TO
60.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...WHILE LOWERING SOME SELECT OUTLYING AREAS A FEW
DEGREES.

RADARS REMAINED QUITE BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SO LEFT SLIGHT POPS
THERE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY THIN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SPREADING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
IN OUTLYING SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO MID 60S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE RISE
AND THERE WILL INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE REGION IN A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS CANADA AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHER FACTORS THAT WOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ARE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN FAVOR IS STRENGTHENING
850 MB WINDS WHICH WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MENTIONED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS SOME NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORK TOGETHER. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS RESIDES. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT WET WEATHER AT LEAST INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH IN THE 60S
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINLY GO LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE COOL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 80S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. LATER TONIGHT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AT KPOU/KPSF...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AND A VFR STRATUS DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND STRATUS DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE PLACED -SHRA
IN THE TAFS AT KGFL AND KALB AFT 21Z...LEAVING KPSF AND KPOU DRY
FOR NOW.

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT KALB...10 KTS
OR LESS...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA
SUN-MON AM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON AFTN-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEATHER
WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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