Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.