Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THESE ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE
SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THE SHOWERS MAY START TO
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...ANY RAINFALL IS QUITE BENEFICIAL.

ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN...TOOK A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE
TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE
ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY, AND IN IT`S WAKE
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND
EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH






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