Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA


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