Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 172335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
735 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will remain in place over New York and
Pennsylvania through the weekend with a gradual warming trend
and dry weather.


730 pm update...
Forecast on track. Very minor changes made.

previous discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain over the mid Atlantic region
during the period with weak upper level ridging on Wednesday.
Skies will remain mainly clear through the period with a
moderating southwest flow on Wednesday. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 30s in the western Catskills to mid 40s in
the lake plain. Highs on Wednesday will range from the middle
60s to around 70. Wednesday night will be milder as the airmass
continues to modify with lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Patchy valley fog will occur in the valley areas of the twin
tiers overnight but a dry airmass and boundary layer mixing
will limit areal extent.


A weak trough / cold front will swing across Northern NY on
Thursday, knocking temperatures down a degree or two. The
atmosphere will remain much warmer than normal for the second
half of October, with daily highs well into the 60s.

Due to the amount of dry air over NY and PA, we are forecasting
dry weather through late Friday.


The eastern ridge will rebuild this coming weekend, but will it
be for the last time this autumn? Very mild 925-850mb
temperatures point to daily highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday, with plenty of sunshine during the weekend.

Clouds will increase late Sunday night in advance of a stronger
frontal system. Showers are forecast on Monday as the cold front
swings through.

Much cooler, more seasonable weather is forecast for the middle
of next week when a trough sets up in the Eastern U.S.


730 pm update...

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period with mostly
SKC. At KELM, brief valley fog near airport minimums may occur
between 10Z-13Z, although dry airmass and boundary layer mixing
may preclude fog formation. Stronger low level winds and less
moisture than this morning.

Low level wind shear will occur overnight in NY between 00Z-09Z
with winds westerly at 30 to 35 knots at 2K ft AGL. Otherwise,
southwest wind at 5 kts or light and variable tonight. During
the day Wednesday southwest winds at 4 to 7 knots.


Wednesday night to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early morning
restrictions in fog at KELM each day.




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