Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220825
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A southwest flow of mild air will be over our area into the
weekend. This will bnring temperatures well above normal for
February. Weak areas of low pressure will bring a low chance of
showers from time to time before a stronger system brings
widespread rain on the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Weak little waves ripple along in the westerly flow while a
diffuse trof lingers in the area. This will bring low chance pops
to parts of the area today. HRRR shows the best chance for any
rain would be over the estrmem north...and over the southern third
pf the forecast area. Amounts will be quite light in any event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Deep southwest flow aloft will keep the easterly movement of
surface features slow through the area. Frontal boundary running
from the mid Mississippi valley to the Great Lakes will creep
eastward as upper system race northeast in the upper flow. This
will keep a risk of showers at times...but more importantly keep
mild air over the forecast area through the short term. Expect
very little change in the weather through Thursday with the upper
ridge holding firm.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Southerly flow ahead of a strong midwestern low pressure center
will pull the +15C 925mb isotherm to the NY/PA border on Friday.
With a warm front to our north and a cold front approaching from
the Ohio Valley, mainly cloudy skies will be over our forecast
area with a few showers expected. Appreciable breaks of sunshine
would allow temperatures to make a run at 70 degrees, but this
seems unlikely. Even with the cloud cover most areas will reach
the lower 60s Friday afternoon.

A strong cold front will move through NY/PA on Saturday. Heavier
showers are expected along the front, including a slight risk for
a few thunderstorms in the abnormally warm/humid airmass. PWATs
are north of 1 inch, so we will need to watch for downpours in
heavy rain showers.

Much colder air filters down from Ontario Saturday night into
Sunday, changing rain showers over to snow showers. After wintry
temperatures return on Sunday and Monday, a temporary mild spell
is forecast ahead of another approaching cyclone, beginning on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the light winds and scattered showers VFR conditions will
prevail over the region for much of the TAF period. Occasional
MVFR ceilings are possible in SYR and RME for the next few hours,
but drier air in the low levels should keep them from prevailing,
or for lower visibilities. Conditions continue into Wednesday with
little change with a weak southwest surface flow and ridging
aloft. Some MVFR ceilings are possible aft 00Z as the sounding
stabilizes and moisture gathers below a weak inversion.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR, except possible
spotty rain showers/brief restrictions Thursday onward.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions from rainy frontal system.

Sunday...Possible restrictions from lake effect snow KSYR-KRME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1054 AM...We introduced a potential flood hazard for the upcoming
weekend into our Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning.

A significant mild spell, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s,
is likely from Thursday through Saturday. In addition to the
thermal warmth, dewpoint temperatures are also forecast to rise
well into the 40s from Friday through Saturday, including at
night. The low pressure system bringing this surge of warm, moist
air will pass to our northwest and there could be a period of
moderate winds in tandem with the rising dewpoints. As we have
noted in previous events, wind and dewpoint are the main factors
driving rapid snow melt conditions during the late winter and
spring months. The good news is that there is not a lot of liquid
equivalent in our snow pack, although some of the North Branch
Susquehanna and Upper Delaware headwater basins, with higher
terrain, are averaging 1-2 inches of liquid. If the above
parameters come together, all the snow should be gone by Saturday
morning with runoff underway. More good news is that the storm
system looks progressive, so I`m not too sold on rainfall
exceeding a widespread inch in this situation, but there`s ample
time for the track and tendencies of this system to change over
the next several days.

Bottom line is that there are several factors pointing toward at
least significant rises on area rivers and streams, with a
potential minor flood event in the headwater tributaries and upper
reaches of the main stem Susquehanna river this coming weekend.
The branches of the Delaware could also see some minor flood flows
above the reservoirs as snow comes out of the Catskills. Although
our confidence in a flood event is fairly low at this time, the
potential for flooding should be duly noted for any early planning
needs.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
HYDROLOGY...


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