Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NY AND PA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO OUR FA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ARRIVING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST QPF VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MILD WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ALL THE WAY UP TO 8000
FEET AT 8Z, AND THROUGH 2500-3000 FEET BY 12Z ONCE THE COOLER AIR
DEEPENS.

THE ODDS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS, AS -8C TO -11C 925MB AIRMASS BLEEDS INTO THE FA.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DUE
TO PERSISTENT 280-300 LAKE FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER
INSTABILITY LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED, AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. STUCK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE LES ACTIVITY AND ADDED
A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRNL WLY FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD WILL KEEP GNRLY DRY
CONDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LE SNOWS PSBL IN THE FAR NORTH AND FAR WEST
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. VARIOUS WVS/RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL
OCNLY ENHANCE OR CHG LOCATIONS OF...THE SNOW SHWRS. TEMPS REALLY
NOT ALL THAT COLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF WINTER...BUT COLD ENUF FOR
SNOW WHEN PCPN DOES FALL. CHGS BEGIN ON FRI WHEN A MORE IMPORTANT
SYSTEM DVLPS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD DEEPENING OF THE TROF OVER THE UPR
MIDWEST AND CORRESPONDING RDGG OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW WRMR AIR...AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE PD. SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DFRNCS
ATTM LEADS TO CNSRBL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
CHANCE POPS AND A RAIN OR SNOW FCST AS THE PSN AND AMT OF WAA
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

FOR THE DAILY FCST ITSELF...GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID ONCE AGAIN BUT
ALSO TWEEKED IT TWRD THE COLDER GFS MOS WHICH ALLOWED FOR BETTER
COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY IN THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PTNCHS OF CLDS MVG THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...GNRLY VFR SO THERE
WILLBE LTL IMPACT ON AVIATION. LOW MVG THRU SRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A COLD FNT THRU TNGT AND TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS...AND OCNL MVFR CIGS.
RAIN SHD BE LGT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT XPCTD ATTM. DRIER AIR
AND WLY WINDS BHD THE FNT LATE TNGT AND ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CLRG
AND A RETURN THE VFR ALL STATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FOR KRME/KSYR...DUE TO LES.
OTRWS...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM





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