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000
FXUS61 KBGM 091809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY TONIGHT,
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AN UL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NY LATE TONIGHT AND SPUR SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF UL WAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. EXISTENCE
OF AMPLE WAA SUGGESTS LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TURN TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, AND THEN THE WEATHER GETS A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING.

A CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE TROF AXIS TO THE
WEST. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE
DEEPENING, AND SNOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT, WITH EURO, NAM, AND
GFS ALL FORECASTING A PRECIPITATION SWATH ACROSS OUR FA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT, STRENGTH, AND THERMAL PROFILES, BUT
NONE OF THE THREE MISS US. I AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO AT THIS
VERY EARLY JUNCTURE, SIMPLY BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN THE MOST
PERSISTENT MEMBER FORECASTING A NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM
AFFECTING BGM.

A VERY NOTEWORTHY TREND IS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR BEING DRAWN UP
THE COAST INTO PA AND NY. THE GFS NOW BRINGS THE 850MB 0C LINE
INTO THE TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS, WHILE THE EURO PULLS IT ALL THE
WAY INTO CHENANGO/OTSEGO. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE PUSHES WED MAXES
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THE STORM IS STILL NEARLY 3 FULL DAYS OUT, SO NO POINT IN GETTING
TOO CUTE WITH THE SPECIFICS. HOWEVER WE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PACKAGE, WHILE CUTTING BACK ON THE SNOW. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS SUGGESTS LOW SNOW TO H20 RATIOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE A TREND TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF ON THE MID WEEK STORM THOUGH STILL VARIABILITY ON
SPECIFICS AND DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW
ACCUM IS LOOKING BETTER FOR CENTRAL NY WHILE ACROSS NE PA THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN UP TO BGM WED AFTERNOON
THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW WED NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS STORM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
JUST COMING ONTO THE US WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SO THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLD AIR WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. SOME TEMP MODIFICATION IS LIKELY FRI/SAT ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A WEAK
SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR ON
SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING LAKE ENHANCED MVFR
SCT/BKN STRATO CU OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT OVERRUNNING LOWERING CIGS TO BETWEEN 6K-10K OVER
THE TERMINALS AFT 00Z. AFTER 07Z WORKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NY
IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AT KELM AND KAVP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 15Z FROM THE SW.

NORTHWEST FLOW 8-12G20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.

WED/THURS...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW