


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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126 FXUS61 KBGM 151052 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 652 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves into the area today bringing mostly sunny skies and warm, muggy conditions. Heat remains through the end of the week with periodic rain and storms returning Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 200 AM Forecast... A few isolated showers remain across the region that should dissipate in the next hour or so. Widespread fog is expected across the Southern Tier, Catskills and NEPA tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Temps tonight will remain warm and muggy, with temps and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Strong ridging from the surface to 500mb builds into the region today. Mostly sunny skies will push temperatures into the mid to upper 80s with valleys around 90. Dewpoints are a few degrees lower today so heat indices will remain below advisory criteria. A few showers and storms may pop up across the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon, but they are expected to be isolated and weak. Air quality will be an issue today across CNY as smoke from Canada slides into the region, thus an Air Quality Alert has been issued for small particulates. Tuesday night remains warm and muggy as the ridge axis slides east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass into the region. Temps and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s once again. Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temps and dewpoints a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices are approaching advisory criteria for the northern Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley, but confidence is low that they will get there. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the area Wed afternoon, kicking off clouds, showers and storms across the region, which could keep temperatures lower. Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing heavy rain and possible flash flooding. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is present across NEPA. With the recent heavy rain over this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be achieved easier thus necessitating at the Slight Risk. The rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms dropping heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues. At this time, severe storms are not expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 320 AM Update... Short wave continues to move through the region Wednesday night with additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. Model soundings show PWATs surging from 1.8 to 2 inches along with a warm cloud depth of 12K feet Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Conditions are looking favorable for heavy downpours. With southwesterly flow temperatures remain warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Zonal flow settles in aloft Thursday with additional waves of moisture moving in from the west. This will keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast especially through the afternoon. Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8" on average. Temperatures remain warm Thursday with highs in the low to upper 80s. Factoring in dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the low 90s. Temperatures Thursday night range in the low to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 320 AM Update... A cold front approaches the region on Friday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be across the NY southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and location of the front. Behind the front temperatures cool with highs in the low to upper 70s. Quiet conditions settle in Friday night and continue into Saturday as high pressure builds. Comfortable temperatures and dry conditions hold on Saturday ahead of the next approaching system. Frontal system pushes northeast on Sunday into Monday with returning showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Range of VFR to LIFR across the terminals this morning as widespread fog has developed across the region. Fog should dissipate by mid morning, with VFR conditions expected through the evening. Haze from smoke is expected to move over the area, but will not impact visibilities. Another round of fog should develop tonight with high pressure overhead, clear skies and light to calm winds. High enough confidence for IFR/LIFR at ELM to include in the TAF. BGM/AVP/ITH are showing signs of IFR/LIFR restrictions, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time so MVFR conditions have been introduced. Outlook... Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional restrictions. Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046- 055>057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JTC