126
FXUS61 KBGM 151052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves into the area today bringing mostly sunny
skies and warm, muggy conditions. Heat remains through the end
of the week with periodic rain and storms returning Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
200 AM Forecast...

A few isolated showers remain across the region that should
dissipate in the next hour or so. Widespread fog is expected
across the Southern Tier, Catskills and NEPA tonight as high
pressure builds into the area. Temps tonight will remain warm
and muggy, with temps and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

Strong ridging from the surface to 500mb builds into the region
today. Mostly sunny skies will push temperatures into the mid to
upper 80s with valleys around 90. Dewpoints are a few degrees
lower today so heat indices will remain below advisory criteria.
A few showers and storms may pop up across the Catskills and
Poconos this afternoon, but they are expected to be isolated and
weak. Air quality will be an issue today across CNY as smoke
from Canada slides into the region, thus an Air Quality Alert
has been issued for small particulates.

Tuesday night remains warm and muggy as the ridge axis slides
east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass into the
region. Temps and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s once
again.

Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temps and dewpoints
a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices are approaching
advisory criteria for the northern Finger Lakes and Mohawk
Valley, but confidence is low that they will get there. A strong
shortwave is expected to move into the area Wed afternoon,
kicking off clouds, showers and storms across the region, which
could keep temperatures lower. Model soundings show a very
moist atmosphere with long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud
depths, leading to storms producing heavy rain and possible
flash flooding. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding is present across NEPA. With the recent heavy
rain over this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be
achieved easier thus necessitating at the Slight Risk. The rest
of the region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms
dropping heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues.
At this time, severe storms are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Short wave continues to move through the region Wednesday night with
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. Model soundings
show PWATs surging from 1.8 to 2 inches along with a warm cloud
depth of 12K feet Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Conditions are looking favorable for heavy downpours. With
southwesterly flow temperatures remain warm and muggy Wednesday
night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Zonal flow settles
in aloft Thursday with additional waves of moisture moving in
from the west. This will keep scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast especially through the afternoon.
Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and
gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.6 to
1.8" on average. Temperatures remain warm Thursday with highs in
the low to upper 80s. Factoring in dew points still in the
upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the
low 90s. Temperatures Thursday night range in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 AM Update...

A cold front approaches the region on Friday bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be across the
NY southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and
location of the front. Behind the front temperatures cool with highs
in the low to upper 70s. Quiet conditions settle in Friday night and
continue into Saturday as high pressure builds. Comfortable
temperatures and dry conditions hold on Saturday ahead of the
next approaching system. Frontal system pushes northeast on
Sunday into Monday with returning showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Range of VFR to LIFR across the terminals this morning as
widespread fog has developed across the region. Fog should
dissipate by mid morning, with VFR conditions expected through
the evening. Haze from smoke is expected to move over the area,
but will not impact visibilities. Another round of fog should
develop tonight with high pressure overhead, clear skies and
light to calm winds. High enough confidence for IFR/LIFR at ELM
to include in the TAF. BGM/AVP/ITH are showing signs of IFR/LIFR
restrictions, but confidence is not high enough to include in
the TAFs at this time so MVFR conditions have been introduced.


Outlook...

Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to
numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional
restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC