Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 110002
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
702 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue this
afternoon, then slowly taper off and end tonight. Additional snow
amounts will be light. A storm system will impact the region with
3 to 6 inches of snow from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning,
likely causing travel difficulties. Some wintry mix is also
possible early Monday as the system exits.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 pm update...

Lake effect snow continues this afternoon. Some increase in
coverage with a short wave and better moisture moving through.
Most of the snow has been light. The flow is from the wnw so Lake
Erie snow extending all the way to the Poconos. Lake Ontario snow
has a connection to Huron. These showers cover the northeast third
of the cwa. Snow amounts have been mostly light. The lake Erie
band dropped 1 to 3 inches from Steuben to Susquehanna Counties.
The lake effect snow will diminish slowly tonight with less lift.
Late tonight the flow goes to southwest lifting any remaining snow
off Lake Ontario north of our counties. Low temps fall back into
the teens. If there is clearing temperatures could get colder with
the fresh snow and light to calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 pm update...

The big story continues to be the Sunday afternoon to Monday
morning storm. A winter weather advisory has been issued for the
entire area for 3 to 6 inches of snow. Models have been fairly
consistent on the timing and strength of the storm. Snow moves in
Sunday afternoon from southwest to northeast ahead of a warm
front. Highest amounts of an inch or two in central NY and less in
PA. Most of the precipitation will fall as snow with most of it
Sunday night ahead of the cold front. Possible freezing rain
across the northeast PA late Sunday night and Monday morning but
this will be patchy and short lived if any. Temperatures will be
close to freezing and warming quickly as the precipitation end and
moves east. Temperatures across the lake plain in NY will warm
such that the snow could mix with rain before ending. Precip ends
from sunrise Monday in the west to late morning in the east.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday some showers but nothing much. Air
not cold enough for decent lake effect but most of the showers
will be snow across central NY Monday night and Tuesday. Best snow
in northern Oneida County with only a few inches Monday night and
Tuesday. Little elsewhere. After Monday afternoon highs around 40
temperatures fall to closer to normal with highs in the 30s
Tuesday with lows Monday night and Tuesday night in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1205 PM update...
A deep trough over central and eastern Canada will keep the
eastern U.S. colder than normal and unsettled during the long term.
A storm system will spread snow into NY and PA midweek, though at
this time the models disagree on timing and QPF.

The ECMWF continues to suggest the Arctic air at the heart of the
trough will rotate eastward into Quebec, barely clipping northern
NY state. Although we will remain cold, the deep Arctic cold is
not likely to directly affect us.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cellular type lake effect snow showers have diminished in
intensity and coverage across the region this evening...with the
main area of snow now to the east of KITH and KBGM. Primary area
of concern will be the KSYR terminal the next several hours with
additional showers dropping vsbys to IFR or lower through 04-05Z.
Otherwise...can expect unrestricted -SN through the rest of the
evening with generally high-end MVFR or low-end VFR ceilings.

The next system will move in Sunday morning with lower ceilings
back to MVFR early Sunday morning. Light snow/flurries begin late
morning as ceilings gradually lower to fuel alternate. MVFR/IFR
vsbys in snow showers may reach KELM, KITH and KBGM by
18-20Z...with lower vsbys from stronger snow showers to KSYR, KRME
and KAVP after 21Z.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night through Monday...Widespread restrictions likely
in snow as system moves through. Wintry mix or light rain also
may show up for some terminals Monday morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions still possible in
lingering lower ceilings and visibility reducing snow showers
Tuesday, especially our central NY terminals. Best chance of snow
and restrictions Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EST Monday
     for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EST Monday
     for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM/TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/DJP



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