Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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696
FXUS61 KBGM 271706
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
106 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth and humidity will continue over the next
several days. Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and
miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, are possible today
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 am update...
forecast in good shape. Adjusted clouds to current. Batch of
clouds in the far east moving out with a couple of sprinkles.
Partly cloudy skies will increase as temperatures hit the
convective temperature around noon. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will also increase but not until then. Chance pops
look fine with weak forcing and shear. Instability already there
with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s today. Max temps
unchanged. Should end up a degree or two warmer today over
yesterday and close to or slightly above guidance.

415 AM Update...
High temps today will be a degree or so warmer than yesterday but
it will be the increase in moisture, as dew points climb from the
50s into the 60s, that will make it feel much more muggy. One weak
upper level disturbance over north central PA will keep a few
showers across NEPA and the Catskills through daybreak, followed
by drier weather for everybody through late morning. Another
disturbance now over northeast Ohio will track east northeast
along the NY/PA border by midday. This along with our increase in
moisture and daytime heating is enough to maintain our 30% chance
for afternoon showers/storms. With the track of the disturbance
the highest chances will be near the NY/PA, with decreasing
chances across Central NY. As the previous forecaster pointed out
however, building heights aloft will keep anything widespread from
forming. Any afternoon convection quickly dies early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM Update...

Upper level heights build to 588 DM Saturday which will translate
into the warmest day of the next 7. Highs well into the 80s are
expected, with near 90 degree readings over the urban and lower
elevation areas. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices
will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than actual air temps. With our area
will being on the outer edge of the 500 mb ridge, any disturbance
in the west southwest flow aloft will be enough to capitalize on
the afternoon instability (fuel from the moisture and daytime
heating) to warrant another 30% chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. While not a washout, chances for storms increase to
50%+ Sunday as the ridge begins to break down and we have a better
chance for upper level support.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 am Update...
The models remain reasonably consistent from previous runs, so
only small changes, if any, were made to the existing forecast.

A short-wave and cold frontal passage is still progged for Monday,
thus we have a good chance for showers/thunderstorms. Behind these
systems, we should see dry and slightly cooler weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with daily highs in the 70s-lower 80s.

Later next week (Thursday and beyond), model divergence increases,
as the European model has been more progressive to bring in our
next cold front and chances for showers and storms, while the GFS
model is more amplified and slower overall. For now, we simply
populated with the ER Superblend, which is a good compromise
between these scenarios.

     Previous Discussion...
Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will remain generally VFR through this evening with a
small chance of a slow-moving shower or thunderstorm impacting a
couple terminals this afternoon. Still not enough confidence to
put TS in the TAF...but with a cluster of storms east of ROC along
the south shore of Lake Ontario the best chance may be around SYR
between 20-23Z and possibly a couple hours later at RME. Will have
to keep an eye on the trends and make quick updates to TAFs if
storms near terminals.

Still a possibility for light fog/haze across the area during the
pre-dawn hours Saturday, with brief IFR or MVFR vsbys.

Southwest winds around 7-10 kt should become light and variable again
this evening and increase slightly out of the W/NW Saturday
morning.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions, but best chance will be
Sunday- Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM,
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden/TAC
NEAR TERM...Heden/TAC
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ



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