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000
FXUS61 KBGM 020744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. WARM AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR MOST OF THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY FOR
THE BULK OF THE AREA WITH STEADIER RAIN MOVING UP THE COAST NOW,
REMAINING TO OUR EAST. A 250 MB JET WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS YESTERDAY IN NEPA IS MUCH WEAKER NOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MID MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS
JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN AND MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, NEPA WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND THUS FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST, MAY
LIMIT INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO WHILE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IT IS NOT QUITE AS LIKELY. ALL AND ALL WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE BUT FEEL CLOUD COVER AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS, IF ANY,
WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDER AS AN H5 TROF MOVES THROUGH. LIMITING FACTOR MAY
AGAIN BE CLOUD COVER BUT UNLIKE TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD TRIGGER
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FORM OF THE TROF. MOISTURE STICKS AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGHS NEAR
80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BASIC L/WV PATN WILL PERSIST...WITH A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.

INDIVIDUAL S/WVS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ABV DESCRIBED FLOW PATN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION
FORMS. SINCE THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR
OUT...WE`LL SIMPLY CALL FOR ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS
PD...WITH THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS MOST FAVORED NEAR PEAK HTG...AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME VERY LIKELY ENDING UP RAIN-FREE. ALL OF
THAT SAID...TUE MAY SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...WITH AN
EXPECTED FROPA LTR IN THE DAY OR AT NGT.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AMT OF HI CLDS THIS MRNG WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM
FRMG SO MOST STATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. XCPTN MAY BE AT ELM WHERE
BRIEF IFR CONDS. WV MVG UP THE EAST CST MAY PUSH SOME PCPN INTO
AVP LTR TODAY AND MAY LWR CIGS ANV VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFT
DARK. OTRW...DRY CONDS THRU THE PD AS ANY DIURNAL SHWRS SHD BE
VERY LIMITED IN CVRG. SOME MVFR CLD DECKS PSBL AFT 00Z WITH THE
INCRSD MARINE MOISTURE FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MDP