Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 050121
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER THE
WRN/NRN CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF
LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE SKY CLEARS THIS
EVENING...SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION COURTESY
OF RECENT RAINFALL...WE ARE EXPECTING FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST FOR KELM AND THEN OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL.
KELM SHOULD BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS 06Z-13Z...AND FOR KAVP-KBGM
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST IFR VIS AND/OR CIG. KITH IS
TRICKIER...WITH AT LEAST MVFR VIS LIKELY /THUS THAT IS WHAT IS IN
TAF/ BUT WORSE IS POSSIBLE. KSYR-KRME HAS NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY AND SO FOG-LOW STRATUS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
THERE. HOWEVER...SOME IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY KRME. AFTER FOG LIFTS-
DISSIPATES 12Z-13Z...SUNNY VFR DAY WITH WNW WIND UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTHER THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE THROUGH WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA-TSRA.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MDP


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