Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050824
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
424 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LAST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
CENTRAL NY ARE WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING NO MORE
THAN FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TODAY WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS RATHER DRY AND 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AT BUF AND DTX BOTH INDICATE SOME CAPPING FROM 700-600
MB. THEREFORE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED POP-UP
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS BELOW 25 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH SO THAT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND +12 C INDICATING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RANGING FROM 75 TO 80 EVEN WITH SUNSHINE AND FULL
MIXING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S... WITH SOME
MID AND UPPER 40S IN NORMAL COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE
ECMWF. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

330 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WHILE UPPER RIDGES HOLD
FIRM OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/ROCKIES FRONT RANGE REGIONS, AND ALSO
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL, THIS MEANS FREQUENT BOUTS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (ABOUT EVERY 24-48 HOURS), AS UPPER-LEVEL
WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. NO ONE DAY, THOUGH, LOOKS
LIKE A WASHOUT, AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE, AND CENTERED AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES ON THE
OTHER DAYS, AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AUGUST, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS OVER KRME/KSYR THROUGH DAYBREAK. SINCE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT KELM
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OVERALL A VFR FORECAST WITH SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER
CU TODAY AROUND 5K FT AND JUST CI THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NE PA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM



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