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000
FXUS61 KBGM 252254
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
554 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE TO COME THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE THE LOW
TWENTIES OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER THIRTIES OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOREASTER MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH MAY
RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
915 AM EST UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH CAA. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS... WHAT IS LEFT OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS
MORNING TO DISSIPATE OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHT DROPS QUITE A BIT. WITH THAT BEING SAID... EXPECT TO SEE
SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE.
DUE TO CAA OVER THE REGION... TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 20S OVR THE
NORTH AND TMPS OVER THE SOUTH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

TONIGHT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA AND CNTL NY.
STILL EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...
BY 12Z MONDAY, SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVR THE MID-MS VLY WL SHIFT EAST
AND SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE U.S.
NAMELY FM WV SWRD TO WRN NC. H5 TROF WL BE SWINGING THRU THE REGION
AT THIS TIME. 1025MB SFC HIGH WL BE SITUATED NORTH OF CWA MON MRNG
WITH DRY AIR PRESENT ACRS NRN ZONES FOR A TIME DRG THE MRNG HRS.
HIGH WL QUICKLY RETREAT INTO ERN CANADA IN THE AFTN ALLOWING SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AFT 18Z. IN GNRL, EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OVR FA
THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

AFTER 00Z, EXPECT THAT ENERGY WL BEGIN TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST.
QUESTION THEN BCMS HOW FAR WEST THE SNOW CAN BE FLUNG BACK FM THE
SFC LOW MON NGT/TUE MRNG. MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HV A HARD TIME WITH QPF
PREDICTION AND THESE MILLER TYPE-B CYCLONES ARE EVEN WORSE THAN
USUAL. 12Z NAM TRENDED WEST WITH SFC LOW WHILE 12Z GFS TRENDED A TAD
FURTHER EAST AND 12Z EC STAYED THE COURSE.  BY 12Z TUESDAY SFC LOW
IS AT THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER
MED RANGE MODELS AND DON`T THINK THIS WL BE THE CASE. HV GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/EC AND WPC GUIDANCE.

EXPECT LGT SNOW TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON MON NGT FOR FINGER LKS AS
LIFT IS BCMNG FOCUSED MORE ON CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OFF THE
COAST. HEAVIEST SNOW PROGGED TO RMN OVR SULLIVAN/PIKE CNTYS AFTER
MIDNIGHT MON NGT CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN AS LOW STALLS/
RETROGRADES NR CAPE COD. CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ON THIS HAPPENING
WITH ONLY EC INDICATING THE RETROGRESSION WHILE THE NAM STALLS
SYSTEM WITH GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE
TO GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT SO WL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE
WINTER STORM WATCH AND HV OPTED TO ADD OTSEGO AND DELAWARE CNTYS TO
EXISTING WATCH. AS IT SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WL HIT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWS OVR EXTRM ERN SXNS AND WL EMPHASIZE THIS IN WINTER
STORM PRODUCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
TO START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNSHINE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURS AND
BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DECIDED TO
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AND MAY CREATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER. THE FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD THE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES THERE ARE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE... THUS DECIDED TO
TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND KEPT LOW POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM... BUT WILL
MODERATE ON THURS AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON TILL ANOTHER COLD FROM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH AVP OVERNIGHT, ARRIVING BETWEEN 6Z
AND 8Z. THE SNOW WILL REACH THE ITH, ELM, AND BGM TERMINALS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SYR BY MID-AFTERNOON, AND RME BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z.

THE SNOW WILL BRING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF 3/4SM TO 2SM.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITHIN THE SNOW TO BETWEEN 700 FEET AND 1500
FEET.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WITH -SN AND RESTRICTIONS MONDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY
EVOLVE INTO NOR EASTER FOR ESPECIALLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY FOR WHICH TERMINALS MAY BE IMPACTED.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ048.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP