Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261845
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will push
rain back into the area overnighgt and early on Monday. A few
patches of freezing rain are possible in the Catskills
overnight. Drier air will return Monday but skies will remain
overcast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Blocking high over New England has been stubbornly persistent
and unwilling to let go. This has kept some cold air over the
far eastern zones, mainly northern Sullivan and eastern
Delaware. As the next batch of rain moves in, NAM12 shows some
lingering cold air in a narrow layer holding on and continuing
into the early morning hours before finally being scoured out.
At this time, believe icing will be isolated enough and remote
enough to be handled by an SPS if needed.

System itself is not particularly strong, in fact the models
show the low filling over time as it moves into Ontario. It does
show a nice little jet streak ahead of the wave and develops a
decent period of rain between 06Z and 12Z with rain amounts up
to a half inch possible. This could cause some minor hydro
issues, see hydro discussion section for details.

Somewhat drier air arrives on Monday, although clouds should
persist with just weak ridging and leftover moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 am update... Later tonight into Monday morning, another slug
of steadier rainfall is expected to impact the region, tied to
the next approaching short-wave, and also a northeastward moving
warm frontal boundary. During this time frame, parts of the
Catskills may still see readings near 32F, and thus spotty
freezing rain is possible at the onset. However, milder air will
be pushing into the region, so we anticipate any freezing
precipitation to be short-lived.

Much of Monday afternoon and Monday night may end up
precipitation-free in between systems, with just spotty light showers
or patchy drizzle. By this time, the warm front will be through
much of CNY/NEPA, so after late day highs in the mid 40s-mid 50s
Monday, readings will only fall a few degrees Monday night.

On Tuesday, the next short-wave is progged to move in from the
west, and combine with a slowly approaching surface cold front.
Consequently, showers will break out, and a few thunderstorms
are not out of the question, with some low to mid-level
instability developing (ML Cape of 200-500 j/kg possible).

Temperatures Tuesday will be quite mild, with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 50s-mid 60s over the majority of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A shortwave trough will swing across the region Tues night and
continue the chance for rain showers to linger. High pressure at
the sfc and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will shift over the region
Wed morning which will create a decent break from our wet
pattern. Sfc high pressure will settle over the region through
Friday morning, thus dry weather is expected to prevail through
then. The next storm system to possibly impact the area will be
a sfc low and potentially move into the region as early as
Friday morning. There are still model discrepancies on the
timing and track of this system, thus decided to keep low pops
in the forecast for this next system at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stalled front will continue to bring a mix of IFR and MVFR
flight conditions to the region this morning. Cold air still
clings to the sfc, thus some FZRA continues to fall this AM.
FZRA shouldn`t last too long as sfc temps are forecast to rise
by mid-morning. There will be a brief lull in precip this
afternoon and possibly some improvement in flight conditions
before additional rain moves back into the region late tonight.
Winds will be light and variable for the next couple of hours,
then become E/SE around 10 to 15 knots by mid day and continue
through much of the forecast period. KAVP will remain light and
variable through the period.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday/Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM EDT Sunday UPDATE...The rain on snow melt event is
underway, and will continue into the upcoming week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Future rainfall amounts are roughtly the same in today`s model
runs, with basin averaged QPF up to an inch through Wednesday
morning. This along with the runoff of most of the 1 to 3
inches of liquid water content across the headwaters of the
Upper Susquehanna, Delaware and the Oneida-Syracuse river basin
will lead to high flows, and probably minor flooding at several
of the forecast gauge points in the Susquehanna and Upper
Delaware tribs.

MMEFS ensemble spreads are even more aggressive than our latest
operational hydrologic model runs, and show a potential for a
quicker melt on Monday with sharp rises to flood stage at the
headwater points, followed by secondary crests on Tuesday. In
some cases, the mean crests are to the Moderate flood stage.
The confidence of a near worst case scenario outcome is quite
low at this time, but it will be important to keep these caveats
in mind as this event unfolds, and be prepared to react to
locally heavier rainfall and/or a rapid melt down of the snow
cover.

With forecast crests still over 48 hours away, there is still
time for further assessment, and no Watch will be issued at this
time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...JAB



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