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000
FXUS61 KBGM 241447
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface systems and cold air aloft will keep the weather
unsettled through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be during the afternoon and early evening each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 AM EDT Update...
The cold front is well south of the area and mostly clear skies
prevail in its wake. Clear skies won`t last long as a diurnal
cu field will soon develop across the region. This cu field will
develop due to the cool air aloft, lingering moisture and the
summer sun. Broad troughing aloft will be present through the
day, thus can not rule out an isolated rain shower across the
region. Tonight, the cu field should dissipate quickly and
mostly clear skies should prevail. Temps are forecast to fall
into the low/mid 50s. And the next system will quickly follow
on Sunday. For more information please read the previous
forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
Sunday a better cold front ahead of an upper level trough.
Clouds come in early and remain throughout the day. Highs from
the low 70s in NY to mid and upper 70s ne PA and Sullivan County
NY with more sunshine early.

Again showers and some thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon
continuing into the evening. Chance pops north to slight chance
in Monticello, Scranton south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 am update... An upper-level trough extending into the upper
Great Lakes region and the northeastern U.S. is progged to
amplify this period, with a vigorous short-wave and associated
surface trough coming through the forecast area on Monday. As a
result, we`re advertising the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon, especially over CNY.

A deep NW flow pattern, combined with clouds/precipitation,
will bring unseasonably cool temperatures to the region Monday,
with highs only in the mid 60s-lower 70s range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 am update... Cool, unsettled weather is expected to continue
Tuesday, as the aforementioned upper trough maintains its grip
over the northeast. Scattered and diurnally enhanced showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated, with afternoon highs mostly in
the 60s.

During the middle to latter portions of the week, heights are
progged to rise, as the deep trough lifts out, and gets
replaced by a flat upper ridge axis. Thus, temperatures should
moderate closer to seasonal norms.

Although most of the time Wednesday-Friday will probably end up
being dry, hit and miss convection can`t be ruled out Thursday
and Friday, with short-waves riding eastward along the northern
tier of states.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 am update...

Some MVFR/IFR cigs with and ahead of the front should clear the
area leaving VFR conditions by 13z. Today and tonight VFR.
Isolated showers this afternoon are not expected to cause
restrictions.

Southwest winds around 5-10 knots shifting to the west and
northwest this morning. During the day winds at 10 kts with
afternoon gusts. Tonight winds drop to light and variable or
calm.

With the FAA comms issues continuing have put AMD NOT SKED on
ELM/ITH. Observations not going out. Can only get observations
if dial into the ASOS and that does not always work. Ithaca busy
all night.

Outlook...

Sunday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief
restriction possible.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC