Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 021048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT PRECIP RIDING OUT OF EAST AND CENTRAL PA. HRRR KEEPS
THIS PRECIP OVER SERN COUNTIES INTO MID MORNING AND SPREADS IT AS
FAR BACK AS BROOME COUNTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UL TROF LIFTS OUT OF NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WITH SOGGY TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONFINED FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS FOR
NOW, BUT THINK IT COULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IF THE FLOW
IS LIGHT ENOUGH.

CUT OFF LOW OVER SERN U.S. SEEMS TO LINGER ON LATEST ECMWF RUN, SO
AM NOT CONVINCED PRECIP WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR SOUTHERN FA ON
THURSDAY. STICKING WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS PERIOD.

OVERALL, TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BUT PATTERN STILL SEEMS UNSETTLED, WITH THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH STRUGGLING TO HOLD OFF THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF AND WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.

THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR/MVF CONDS OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS A
SMALL SFC HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR LVLS LTR THIS
MRNG. WEAK SFC GRADIENT WILL CONT THE LGT WINDS THRU THE PD. AFT
SUNSET AND TWRD THE END OF THE PD...STABLE CONDS AND LEFTOVER LL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DVLPG IONCE AGAIN
WITH SOME IFR CONDS PSBL.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM


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