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000
FXUS61 KBGM 042345
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
EVEN MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND LAKE SNOWS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLVL WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WESTERN GTLKS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR
NORTH...BUT SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WARRANTS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
IN THIS WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME WITH LOWS OCCURRING THE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING AND RISING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE NOTED FOR CLOUDS AND DAMP
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRING IN A DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND THEY GET US SOLIDLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW BEFORE DRIFTING THAT FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HERE IS WHERE THE CHALLENGE BEGINS AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND STALLS OVER
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE MIDLVL WAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BLEED SOUTH
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING LINE
BISECTING CENTRAL NY...AND MEANDERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF EACH WAVE. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE FRONT
SOUTH...AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH NAM AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT. EXPERIENCE SAYS WE SHOULD LEAN WITH
THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS AND ALLOW THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO
LINGER LONGER. GENERALLY...WE WILL HAVE VARYING TIMES OF PRECIPIATION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OUR GRID FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO CATCH THE
EBB AND FLOW OF INCREASING/DECREASING POPS. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE LAST IMPULSE LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN TO SNOW
EVOLUTION...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF TIME WHERE SLEET AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN. THE PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST THAT ELEVATION
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN ANY ICING SETUP AS THE COLD WEDGE IS SEEN
ALOFT WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. THE VARIABILITY OF
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO GREAT TO PAINT THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE ILLUSTRATED THE MOVEMENT OF THE DOMINANT RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION
WITH CHANCES OF THE WINTRY MIX THROWN IN.

TEMPS VERY MILD TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY COOLING FRIDAY AND
SEASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG A 280-290 TRAJECTORY
SUGGESTING LAKE BANDS. THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DRIES OUT CONSIERABLY
SO AT THIS TIME NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUITY PREVAILS WITH THE MED RNG...WITH S/WV AND SFC LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROF INTO THE GTLAKES BY 12Z MON. AFTER THIS
TIME WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME LAKE RESPONSE IN THE WRLY FLOW
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A WINTERY MIX OF PCPN
ON SUN NGT...TRANSITIONING TO -SHRA BY MON. STARTED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT TWEEKED CLDS/POPS A BIT TWDS MID WEEK DUE TO POTNL
LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SELY FLOW WILL BRING MARINE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVRNGT
GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS AND VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. HIGHER LVL
MOISTURE WILL COME IN FROM THE SW LTR TNGT AND ON THU ESSENTIALLY
TRAPPING THE LL MOSITURE IN PLACE...SO ONLY MINOR IMPRVMTS IN
CONDS ARE XPCTD AFT SUNRISE. LTR WED...LGT RAIN WILL DVLP AS AN
UPR LVL WRM FNT APRCHS THE REGION. CONDS SHD REMAIN GNRLY MVFR
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

SAT.SAT NGT...SCT MVFR CNTRL NY....PRIMARILY SYR/RME.

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DGM