Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
531 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS. THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS. FOR
THE CWA THIS COASTAL STORM WILL GIVE THE AREA ALL SNOW. QPF AROUND
AN INCH IN THE FAR EAST AND SE. THIS WILL GIVE THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. THE NAM SPREADS MORE SNOW FURTHER WEST. UPPED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. THIS PUT OTSEGO IN A
WARNING. ALSO SRN ONEIDA, MADISON AND CORTLAND EDGED UP TO AN
ADVISORY. TOUGH PART IS THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MORE THAN 12
HOURS OF STEADY SNOW.

BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL BE SE OF AVP BGM AND ONEONTA. DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AND LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITE ZONE. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FGEN FORCING IN
THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. SNOW WILL START BETWEEN 7 AND NOON. MID
CLOUDS TO THE SE WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE CREATING A SEEDER FEEDER EVENT. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK
ONSET FROM S TO N.

SNOW MOVES OUT FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT BUT LINGERS OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF FORCING GONE AND MOISTURE PULLING
OUT. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

AS THE STORM QUICKLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC A NW FLOW SETS UP WITH CAA. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING THU AND THU NGT. LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY CAA CONTINUES WITH LAKE EFFECT AND LL NW
FLOW. MULTIBANDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY.

A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL NOSE IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT THE WIND ENDING THE LES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE FRI NGT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

VSBYS WILL TEND TO RISE AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA. XPCT CIGS AND VSBY GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE
END OF THEPD...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY BHD THE STORM.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ036-037-
     044-045-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN






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