Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191744
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1244 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds with patchy fog and drizzle will persist through early
morning. However, high pressure will briefly visit to dry things
out during the day, even decreasing clouds especially in Northeast
Pennsylvania. A weak front will move through late Friday into
early Saturday with mainly rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 AM update...
The areas of drizzle across the northern counties has reformed
into an area of light rain...with brief periods of sleet and/or
snow over central NY, moving southward into the srn tier.
Temperatures continue to hover in the mid 30s...and this area of
light rain/snow/sleet will continue to drop south and sewd through
the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon. The precip
should taper off as the afternoon progresses and high pressure
builds in.

3 AM update...
There will be a brief spotty freezing drizzle concern at high
elevations east of I-81 early this morning. Other than that
things get fairly quiet for most of today through the first half
of Friday courtesy of passing high pressure, before some rain
moves in with a negatively tilted upper wave Friday afternoon.

Temperatures have been just hanging in the 33-38 degree range,
with widespread clouds and patchy fog especially at higher
elevations. A very weak wave is finishing its skim through Oneida
County-Catskills areas, generating enough lift for patchy drizzle.
Moisture is quite shallow, and the coldest temperatures within
that saturated layer are only about 5 or so degrees below zero
Celsius, thus no snow crystals. For the very few spots around 32
degrees at the surface, mainly higher elevations east of I-81 such
as the Catskills, patchy freezing drizzle remains at least a
possibility early this morning.

High pressure now over the Upper Ohio Valley will move its way
through the area today through tonight. The little bit of
lingering patchy drizzle this morning, mainly north of the NY
Thruway, will come to an end as the high builds in. It will be
much harder though to get rid of the layer of moisture trapped
under the subsidence inversion. A good chunk of Northeast PA-
Sullivan County NY will manage to decrease clouds this afternoon
into evening but the rest of the region will pretty much be stuck
with cloud cover until perhaps a temporary break late tonight
into early Friday. Temperatures also will remain fairly stuck in a
narrow diurnal range. Highs today will be mid 30s-lower 40s,
followed by lows of upper 20s-lower 30s tonight.

Though an upper ridge will be over the area Friday morning, a
negatively tilted wave, extending from a low opening up over the
Upper Midwest, will attempt to ride through the ridge late in the
day. Moisture appears deep enough, with adequate lift, for rain to
arrive in at least the Central Twin Tiers to Wyoming Valley/Scranton-
Wilkes Barre areas especially mid to late Friday afternoon. This
batch of rain will try to advect further northeastward with time,
though the wave will be weakening while also combating some low
level dry air. Highs Friday are expected to be upper 30s-mid 40s,
with warmest readings in lower elevations of the Finger Lakes to
Syracuse areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
After a weak wave passes to the north Friday night, upper level
ridging will bring fair weather and mild temperatures to NY and PA
for Saturday. Temperatures will push into the mid-40s east of
I-81, while the I-81 corridor westward will see maximums soar to
into the upper-40s and lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large area of low pressure over the central U.S. will push
eastward late Sunday into Monday. This system will tap abundant
moisture, bringing 1 to 2 inches of QPF to our far eastern FA and
around an inch to the north and west.

The GFS and ECMWF show significant divergences and discrepancies.
While the GFS holds on to the warm/rain scenario, the latest ECMWF
now brings a fair amount of low level cold air down from the
north, adding the possibility of snow to the rain forecast.

Another storm pulling out of the Ohio Valley will drag rain
showers back into NY and PA on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shallow moisture remains trapped under a subsidence inversion this
afternoon...so IFR to MVFR ceilings continue. Expecting fuel
alternate ceilings and temporary IFR conditions tonight. There may
be patchy fog development tonight as well...with IFR to MVFR vsbys
possible. Light west to northwest winds become variable to near
calm tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Friday through early Saturday...Restrictions develop in rain
Friday afternoon-night followed by lingering lower ceilings into
early Saturday.

Late Saturday through early Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Late Sunday through Monday...Restrictions in rain, possibly mixed
with snow at times.

Tuesday...Visibility restrictions likely in snow and blowing
snow.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP


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