Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 280846
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
346 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Quite a bit of activity on radar still this morning as the slow
moving boundary continues to slide southward. Expecting the
southern extent of the boundary to stall shortly and be then main
focus for this afternoon convection across the area. With this
boundary being the only focus will only go with scattered showers
and storms during the day, with the majority of the activity along
the I-20 corridor and then spreading from there. Much like earlier
tonight, I do not think the convection will dissipate right at 7
pm so continued with isolated to scattered showers/storms through
10 pm then reduced the chances to just isolated through the night.
It does appear that the boundary may shift northward overnight and
will slide into the northern portions of the area by Wednesday
morning. Wednesday activity looks to be just isolated and should
dissipate between 6 and 7 pm.
Eyes will then shift west toward the large storm complex that will
be moving through the Mississippi on Wednesday/Wednesday night
and then enter our area Thursday afternoon, before spreading
through on Thursday night. There still is a severe threat to this
system as models continue to show instability abound with the
system. SPC has continued a slight/marginal chance across the area
for that time frame and see no reason to disagree at this time.
With that said though, a new wrinkle into the forecast will be the
coastal development on Thursday afternoon. How much of this
development will keep the strongest storms to our south and cut us
off from the prime environment. This will be a wait and see but
something that would cause a little bit more of uncertainty to the
Dry through Sunday afternoon with the next system working next
Monday. This will be another system that will be worth watching
and will likely have a some severe punch with it as well. However
at this time models are differing in position and timing of the
support so will leave out of the hazardous weather outlook but
will need to keep an eye on it.
06Z TAF Discussion.
A line of thunderstorms continues to move southward into north
Central Alabama tonight. Additional showers and storms have
developed ahead of the line. Based on current radar trends and hi
res guidance, have timed out the arrival of the line. The line has
slowed down over the last hour, and took that into consideration.
Most, if not all, of the activity will remain north of MGM and TOI
overnight. Activity diminishes late tonight, but isolated to
scattered showers could remain across the area overnight, affecting
MVFR clouds and patchy fog are possible, mainly after the rain ends.
These conditions improve through the morning hours on Tuesday.
Expect at least scattered showers to develop across the area during
daytime heating. Winds will remain out of the southwest.
Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances Thursday and then again on
Monday. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the next 7 days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 78 55 81 58 80 / 40 20 20 10 40
Anniston 78 58 82 59 82 / 40 30 20 10 30
Birmingham 79 60 83 60 81 / 40 20 20 10 50
Tuscaloosa 81 62 85 61 79 / 40 20 20 10 70
Calera 78 61 84 60 81 / 40 30 20 10 50
Auburn 78 59 83 60 81 / 30 20 20 10 20
Montgomery 82 62 86 59 84 / 30 20 20 10 30
Troy 83 61 86 58 83 / 30 20 10 10 20