Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 311159 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STAGNANT AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH 500MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE 20
PERCENT OR LESS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM BRINGING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH EASTWARD AND STALLING
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA AND KEEPS THE CWA ON THE DRY SIDE AS THE TROUGH REMAINS WELL
TO OUR WEST. WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF/GEM FOR THIS FORECAST WITH
30-40 POPS AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND AN EASTERN UNITED STATES/ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
YIELDING HAVOC FOR TAFS WITH IFR AND BELOW CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DURING THE
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH TOI FIRST BY
AROUND MIDDAY AND ANB LAST TO CLEAR THE LOW CIGS OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TERMINALS.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  89  69  90 /  20  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    85  69  89  70  91 /  20  10  10   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  86  70  90  72  91 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  70  93  73  93 /  10  10  10   0  10
CALERA      86  70  90  73  91 /  20  10  10   0  10
AUBURN      85  70  89  73  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  90  70  94  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TROY        90  69  93  72  91 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/08


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.