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000
FXUS64 KBMX 191716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Surface high pressure will back build today over Eastern
Tennessee. In the upper levels high pressure is centered over the
Western Gulf of Mexico with ridging extending northward into the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will shift eastward
toward Alabama through tonight. Thus, subsidence will continue to
be in control of our weather pattern across Central Alabama with
clear skies and light easterly winds around the surface ridge.
Temperatures are expected moderate a few degrees warmer today and
tonight.

08

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

A slow warming trend will continue for Friday and Saturday as a
ridge aloft and at the surface moves eastward and gives way to an
approaching Plains trough. The western edge of the ridge should
extend far enough west to keep higher moisture content aimed to
areas west of Alabama on Saturday.

Rain chances will begin to increase sometime in the Sunday
afternoon to Monday morning timeframe, but models continue to
struggle with the handling of our next weather system. The
forecast is a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF until
better agreement is reached. Widespread soaking rainfall looks
likely on Monday with both models indicating a slow-moving closed
upper trough affecting the region. An upstream disturbance will
cause the trough to become an open wave and accelerate eastward
Monday night, putting an end to the rainfall. Much cooler
conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday as the coolest
air of the season becomes entrenched across the eastern CONUS.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds thru the period. Light east to northeast winds thru 23z
then becoming calm.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mild and dry weather will continue through Saturday. Relative
humidity values should remain above critical thresholds. There
are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  77  49  78  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Anniston    47  78  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  49  78  57  80  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  50  81  56  82  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
Calera      50  78  56  80  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Auburn      50  78  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  52  82  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
Troy        51  81  57  82  63 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$