Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 032358
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A
SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE HIGHEST PWATS WILL COMBINE
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. RELATIVELY LOW BUT NON-ZERO RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MAYBE MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EVENTUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JUNE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BASED ON COMPUTER MODEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROJECTIONS...I HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO SOME CENTRAL
ALABAMA TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES
FOR THIS WILL BE BHM...EET...ANB...AND ASN. THE ONGOING (AS OF
00Z) CONVECTION IN GEORGIA SHOULD STAY THERE AND NOT BE A FACTOR
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH WE WILL WATCH ANB OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS JUST TO MAKE SURE NO SHOWERS SNEAK IN THERE. ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT BY THE 15-17Z
TIME FRAME...LEAVING A SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUD DECK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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