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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231205
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
705 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A DENSE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF ALABAMA ON THURSDAY
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-59
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WILL
BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
MINIMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY....AND
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A RIDGE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM AND
KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER
THE WEEKEND...DESPITE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT STRANDED ON MONDAY DUE
TO AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
STATES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FIRST WAVE THAT WILL LIKELY REACH ALABAMA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS
IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST ALABAMA...DUE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHOT OF
ENERGY. THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD CREATE A BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S. THE FINAL PUSH OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF IN
THEIR TIMING OF THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FRONT. IF THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER IN TIME...THIS FEATURE
COULD BE MORE POTENT THAN THE EARLIER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY MCS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DENSE FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF KMGM AND KTOI THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR VIS BEING REPORTED
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT. THE LIFR FOG WILL GRADUALLY
MIX OUT NOW THAT THE SUN HAS RISEN...AND SHOULD DO SO FROM 13 TO
15Z THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FOG MIXES OUT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  46  80  56  79 /   0   0   0  40  30
ANNISTON    76  46  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  77  49  81  61  81 /   0   0   0  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  78  50  82  59  83 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      77  50  82  60  80 /   0   0   0  30  30
AUBURN      76  51  80  59  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  80  52  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
TROY        80  53  83  57  83 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHAMBERS...
CHILTON...CLAY...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...GREENE...HALE...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PIKE...
RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SUMTER...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$