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000
FXUS64 KBMX 261139
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
639 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

So the front we have been waiting for what seems like years for to
pass through has finally done just that. Analysis at 6Z has the
front well to the south of the area and the dewpoints are in the
50s at all locations with the exception of TOI and EUF. Those
sites will be falling soon. Meanwhile a second front will drop
toward the area before sliding east and washing out during the day
as high pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the mid
80s today once again but with much drier dewpoints it will not
feel as muggy as it has for the past 2 weeks. Another fairly cool
night night with readings in the 50s to near 60 degrees along with
dry weather weather.

16

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

Dry conditions should continue into Tuesday as a trough swings
through the Southern Appalachians. Moisture recovery will be
minimal in advance of this system with PWAT values well below
normal for late June. Northwesterly flow aloft will be replaced by
zonal flow on Wednesday as surface high pressure moves off the
East Coast. This will allow southerly flow to return to the
region. Also, a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico
is expected to move northward toward the forecast area. Rain
chances should increase accordingly for Thursday as PWATs surge
into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Weak westerlies at 500 mb will
represent weak troughing through the rest of the forecast period.
When combined with abundant moisture, this should result in 40-60
POPs focused in the afternoon and early evening hours.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Some morning valley fog at ANB and ASN, otherwise VFR for the next
24 hours as high pressure builds into place. May see some
additional light fog, MVFR, after 9Z Tuesday morning so included
at the main trouble sites.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly rain-free conditions are expected through Wednesday with
low humidity values for late June. Good rain chances and higher
humidity will return on Thursday and continue through the weekend.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  62  84  61  87 /   0  10  10   0  10
Anniston    85  64  85  63  87 /   0  10  10   0  10
Birmingham  86  66  86  65  88 /   0  10  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  88  66  87  66  89 /   0  10  10   0  10
Calera      86  66  86  66  88 /   0  10  10   0  10
Auburn      85  67  85  66  86 /   0  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  89  68  89  67  89 /   0  10  10   0  20
Troy        87  66  87  67  88 /   0  10  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$