Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 311112
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
For 12Z Aviation.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Well the end of May is here and Meteorological Summer begins on
Wednesday. Seems to be right on par as if feels and looks more like
Summer. Today will be much like yesterday with isolated
showers/storms possible during the afternoon. As with a typical
summer day activity will be hit and miss and widely isolated. Some
of the high res short term models are hinting and possibly more than
20 percent coverage but just do not have any large focus mechanisms
moving across Central Alabama to justify more than that. There is an
upper level feature that will slide across northern Mississippi that
could enhance coverage across the west. but better chances will remain
west of Alabama. Majority of you will remain dry. Any showers/storms
dissipate by sunset along with the loss of the daytime heating.
WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY.
Alabama will remain under the influence of an upper ridge thru
Friday. Subtle features will enhance local convection but overall
rain chances will remain low during the period. The presence of
the ridge will also keep the recent string of above average
daytime going through Friday. On Wednesday, the low level flow
will become southerly as the trof over the East coast weakens and
the storm system over Texas increases in strength. This low level
flow pattern will enhance rain chances over the northern counties
Wednesday afternoon and will forecast slightly higher rain chances
in this region. Thursday and Friday will see a similar set-up with
the better rain chances north of I-20, which is more on the
periphery of the upper ridge. By Saturday and Sunday an upper trof
will dig southward into the Mississippi River Valley region and
break down the upper ridge over the Southeast states. This will
result in higher rain chances and cooler daytime temperatures
across central Alabama. Sunday looks like the day with the most
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday the
upper trof axis will push far enough east to bring drier mid
level air into north Alabama, with the rain shifting to areas
south of I-20.
12Z TAF Discussion.
Other than a brief period of MVFR ground fog/haze at a few sites,
terminal forecast remain VFR the next 24 hours.
Continued with the overall persistence for this forecast as well.
Rather weak surface features of a ridge north and broad low
relative low pressure south will keep winds light throughout.
High cloud blow off from the west and a few cumulus expected today.
Not much in the way of convection again this afternoon but can
not completely rule it out, but certainly not high enough chance
for mentioning at this point.
Rainfall coverage will remain spotty through Friday due to the
presence of an upper ridge over the Southeast states. Above normal
temperatures will also continue thru Friday. Rain chances will
increase this weekend as an upper trof axis approaches north
Alabama. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 92 66 91 66 89 / 20 10 30 20 40
Anniston 92 68 92 67 90 / 20 10 30 20 40
Birmingham 93 71 92 70 91 / 20 10 20 20 30
Tuscaloosa 94 69 93 69 92 / 20 10 20 10 20
Calera 91 69 92 69 91 / 20 10 20 20 20
Auburn 90 69 90 69 90 / 20 10 20 20 20
Montgomery 96 71 96 70 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Troy 95 70 95 69 93 / 20 10 20 10 20