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000
FXUS65 KBOI 191550
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF TODAY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING TOO WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S IN THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE BOISE MTNS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS WELL-HANDLED...AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. NW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 25 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING
10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
IDAHO SIDE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE OREGON
SIDE.  AIR MASS WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN
BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY.  WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING.  TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
COMES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.  RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
AIR MONDAY AND LESS WIND THAN TODAY...BUT NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ALOFT WILL DELAY MAIN WARMING UNTIL TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER AROUND THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON
AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN
THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO CAUSE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE UNSTABLE. WE ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LOW MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN OREGON.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JB