Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 270256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
856 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions will continue across southeast Oregon
and southwest Idaho overnight as deeper moisture plume and
precipitation remains anchored along the Oregon coast until
Thursday. High level moisture will keep a thin cloud cover over
southeast Oregon and west-central Idaho with mostly clear skies to
the south and east. Similar to last night, low temperatures are
mild with steady winds. Current forecast is on track so no


.AVIATION...VFR. Increasing clouds and lowering ceilings
after 15z/Thu. Showers developing across eastern OR after 18z/Thu
and Idaho after 20z/Thu. Mountains becoming obscured with MVFR and
local IFR in showers. Surface winds: variable 10kt or less becoming
SW-SE 10-20kt Thu afternoon. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: SW 25-40kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Much of the area continues to
be in the warm sector of an upper level low that is off the
Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon. A few sprinkles have been
observed but for the most part, cloudy and mild conditions can be
expected through tomorrow mid-day. A cold front associated a
shortwave trough in this southwest flow is expected to move into
Oregon zones mid day tomorrow and move through Southwest Idaho in
the evening hours. Rain can be expected with this frontal passage,
but tapering off by late Thursday night. By Friday morning,
another upper low off of the Southern California coast will get
absorbed into this Southwest flow, weaken slightly and move
directly over the area through the day on Friday. Of note,
however, is that this upper low may be pulling in some remnant
moisture from what is now Hurricane Seymour off the coast of the
Mexico`s Baja Peninsula. Dynamics on Friday look to be in the form
of a warm front over the southern third of the CWA on Friday
morning then continuing to slowly push north through the day. This
pattern is setting up for the Southern areas of our CWA to receive
the most amount of rainfall, with the current forecast showing
0.75 inches to 1.00 inch of rain in a 24 hour period.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...A moist upper level
disturbance in Nevada will move through the area Friday night,
accompanied by showers - mainly in SW Idaho. The center of the
disturbance will move through S-Central in the evening, accompanied
by a slight chance of thunderstorms. A large upper trough off the
west coast will move onshore this weekend, bringing additional
showers to the region. Snow levels will remain above 8000 feet
through Saturday night, lowering to around 7000 feet late Sunday
behind a cold front. An unsettled progressive weather pattern will
continue through the middle of next week for a chance of showers
Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will average a few degrees
above normal this weekend, and near normal early next week.





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