Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



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