Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 301514
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
914 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOT AS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TODAY IN S-CENTRAL IDAHO
BUT HARNEY COUNTY/OR MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A WEAK WAVE COMES IN
FROM THE SW...BEST SEEN IN W/V IMAGERY.  ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED
ALONG THE SAME TRACK THURSDAY.  TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN CAN BE
SEEN IN W/V IMAGERY STREAMING NNE INTO CALIF THEN NE ACROSS NEVADA
...WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  PART OF THAT MOISTURE MAY CLIP TWIN FALLS
COUNTY LATE THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT THE OREGON MOISTURE AND THE
TWIN FALLS MOISTURE COME INTO PHASE AND PASS NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA.
UNTIL THEN NO CLEAR-CUT AREAS TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE THAT
OCCUR WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN...HAIL
...AND GUSTY WINDS.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STORMS WILL BE OF
PULSE TYPE.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS HIGH ON POPS TODAY IN S-CENTRAL
IDAHO...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO UPDATE.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BEFORE 06Z. BASES 8K-10K FEET AGL.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR
MORE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE-IDA BORDER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINGING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE...DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAKDOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



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