Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 271542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TRACK
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE
BRINGS TO BREAKDOWN TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WA/NRN ID THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST /BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB/ ACROSS
BAKER COUNTY OREGON INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /MAINLY NORTH
OF MCCALL/. THE MODELS MAY BE HINTING AT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THAN
ACTUAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF BOI-
MYL LINE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AND PRE-FRONTAL INITIATE OF THE CONVECTION.
WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATE
NEED FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
VARIABLE UP TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT FROM BURNS TO
BAKER CITY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEDFORD OREGON TO LOWELL IDAHO. RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NE OREGON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM. BAKER AND MCCALL FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LAYER CAP WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND LAYER RH DO SHOW
SOME MID/HI ALTITUDE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID JUNE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY THE LAST 90 DEGREE
HEAT OF THE SUMMER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



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