Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 272211
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE
SAME TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO
THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT FOR MOUNTAIN
TRAVELERS. ALL THE RECENT SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A WAVE CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
COOLING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MOISTURE INCREASING AGAINST THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE GORE AND PARK RANGES AND A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SNOW TO THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE PARK
AND GORE RANGES MAY SEE UP TO 3 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY`S READINGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND FOOTHILLS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. INCREASED MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH INCREASED LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AND MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS STILL FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER
COLORADO SUNDAY WITH THE COOLER AND MORE UNSTABLE AREA OVER THE CWA.
THE JET WILL DIP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE INSTABILITY
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BUT THERE IS SOME LIGHT QG OVER THE NE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION STARTING SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED WINDS TO THE PARK AND
GORE RANGES AND THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS KEEPING THE SNOW FROM MOVING IN UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWITCH SURFACE
WINDS NE WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND DENVER AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 5 INCHES IN
ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...FOOTHILLS...URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE BUT THOSE NUMBERS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANCE
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NE COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NE WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
PLAINS AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND DENVER. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE COOLER PUSH MOVES IN DIPPING TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT THEN WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD SNOW
COVERED SURFACES HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE
ZERO.

FOR TUESDAY THE JET WILL MOVE NORTH KEEPING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PULLING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AWAY FROM NE COLORADO DURING THE DAY BUT LEAVE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS PRECIP MOVING OUT FASTER
THAN THE 00Z EC WITH THE LOW CENTER HANGING BACK OVER CALIFORNIA
KEEPING THE JET OVER THE REGION LONGER. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT
SNOW FALL COULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

ON WEDNESDAY  THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL AID IN
REDUCING MOISTURE OVER NE COLORADO SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS AND
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW
WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HELPING TO KEEP DRYER DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ONTO THE PLAINS AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE RETURNING A MORE MOIST NW FLOW TO NORTHERN
COLORADO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SSELY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL
SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. AT KBJC COULD SEE GUSTY WLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPS. A
WAVE CLOUD LOOKS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z OVER THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR WITH CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 12KFT
AGL. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE ON DIRECTION
BEING LOW. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.