Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 050225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONG 80-90 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM
GOING. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SHOWERS ALREADY
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME MAKING
THEIR WAY OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OVER
LARIMER COUNTY. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY BUT SOME
STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S TO 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER
AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PALMER DIVIDE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD NEXT
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THIS BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT SO
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
BE QUITE HIGH WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.
WINDS SETTLING DOWN AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEAR A
LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED
THUNDER THREAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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