Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBOX 030211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH FLOW
WILL BRING COOL DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEATHER PATTERN
MAY BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREAS. BUT BREAKS IN THE LOWER DECK SHOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MASS. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
ONTARIO. TREND OF THE CLEARING WOULD BRING IT TO NORTHWEST MASS
AROUND 6 AM WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FORECASTS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND.

OBSERVED TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...OBSERVED DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 40S. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO SCT TO
PERHAPS BROKEN SCU/CU MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS
PARTIAL JUNE SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL COOL OFF THE COASTLINE.
STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL WARM MARITIME AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MU60S FOR MOST LOCALES...70-75 CT RVR VLY AND 55-60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

WED NIGHT...

1026 MB HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FOR TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY INLAND REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME LAYER. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARD MORNING ON THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST HORIZON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO
  SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUN THEN THREAT OF SHOWERS RETURNS MON AND TUE

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEL RUN.
THEY ARE OFFSET TIMING WISE AT THE VERY LEAST WITH THE GFS BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.  SEEMS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...IF NOT THE OPERATIONAL RUN AS WELL OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS SO WILL GUIDE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THAT.  OVERALL...WE/LL START
THE FORECAST OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING THAT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.  AND FINALLY SOME
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SLOWLY BUT WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT BUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM REACHING
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST.
CIGS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

LOW PROB OF PATCHY LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING BUT ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY 15Z. NORTH WINDS TREND NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT...

VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN MA LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER
IN EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD -SHRA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY
VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

MODEST NNE WINDS AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM GEORGES
BANK TO SE OF NOVA SCOTIA TOWARD MORNING. COMBINATION OF MODEST NNE
WIND AND LONG FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL DIMINISH.

WED...

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM QUEBEC. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE. VSBY GOOD ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

WED NIGHT...

MORE OF THE SAME...LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. NE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...

BOS...50...1946
BDL...50...1907 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH)
PVD...47...1907 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH)
ORH...47...1946 (RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
CLIMATE...



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