Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 051109
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING VEERING GRADUALLY SE AS SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. ABUNDAT DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS
CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IS
NOTED ACROSS THE COLUMN WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS IS
ADDITION TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS AND THE RGV THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST AND
LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE INTO THE LOWER
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS SE BY FRIDAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX SUNDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
EAST TX MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE INTO FRIDAY VEERING WINDS EAST
TO SE. WINDS AND SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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