Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 240933
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
433 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Brownsville radar shows numerous
showers and thunderstorms well south of the Rio Grande River and
continues to move southward. Drier air will continue to filter into
Deep South Texas this morning as surface high pressure builds
across the region in the wake of the weak cold front. Very warm
temperatures are expected today with high temperatures ranging from
the mid 80s near the coast to around 90 across the west under mostly
sunny skies. An onshore flow will quickly return tonight as surface
high pressure across the Rio Grande valley and northeast Mexico
moves eastward. Mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures falling
into the 60s at most locations overnight. The pressure gradient will
strengthen on Thursday as low pressure across west Texas interacts
with high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico. This will
result in breezy southeast winds across the CWA on Thursday. Very
warm to hot conditions will prevail on Thursday with high
temperatures mainly in the 90s. Heat index values of 105 to 109
degrees will be possible across portions of the area Thursday
afternoon as dewpoints increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): 500 mb high pressure
centered over central Mexico will produce dry weather across Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from Thursday night through
Sunday. Afterwards, as the mid-level high becomes centered over
Florida and closed 500 mb low pressure drops into the Desert
Southwest, the BRO CWFA will be in a favorable position for
showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the forecast
period. Well above normal temperatures early in the long term
forecast period under the influence of mid-level high pressure
will be tempered to cooler levels later in the forecast due to the
increased cloud coverage and opportunity for rainfall.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday): Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast
winds around 20 knots with gusts near 25 knots and seas of 5.9 feet
with a period of 5 seconds at 03 CST/08 UTC. SCEC conditions will
prevail across the Lower Texas coastal waters this morning as high
pressure builds across the northwest Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
the front. Moderate north winds this morning will diminish this
afternoon as high pressure settles across the area. Light to
moderate north to northeast winds this afternoon will become
southeast tonight as the surface high pressure moves eastward. The
pressure gradient will strengthen on Thursday as low pressure across
west Texas interacts with high pressure across the Gulf. SCEC to low-
end SCA conditions will develop along the Lower Texas Coast on
Thursday.

Thursday Night through Tuesday: Small Craft Advisories may be
needed for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters
Thursday night through Sunday night with the typical high pressure
and low pressure interaction taking place. More moderate winds and
seas are expected Monday and Tuesday as a weak cold front stalls
north of the area and weakens the pressure gradient.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  71  89  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  71  91  80 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            90  68  93  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              89  70  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  68  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  76  86  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Brady-62


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