Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 020530 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS THINKING STILL LOOKS GOOD. VFR TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE NIGHT BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT FOR EARLY MORNING
AIRPORT OPS. LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD
ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND KBRO AND KHRL...BUT
REMAIN NEAR KMFE DUE TO VCSH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING
ATTM...AND FULLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE
SHOWERS MAY AGAIN THREATEN KBRO NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CHANCES ARE
STILL TOO LOW TO ADD INTO TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500MB
LOW DRAPED ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME CONVECTION MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SEABREEZE FRONT TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS WED AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INLAND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE PLAINS KEEPING INFLUX OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE S TEXAS REGION. AT THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND OVER THE AREA WHICH WITH ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE FAVORABLE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS. INTO FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
OVER THE PAC NW. GULF MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON SAT AND
SUN BUT MAINLY OVER THE GULF AT THIS TIME. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION ACTIVITY HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
MID TO LOW 70S. THE WEATER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SE FLOW AND
ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAC NW. THIS WILL CAUSE FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT NO
CONCERN OF SCEC OR SCA ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THE SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING ONSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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