Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270246
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...Updated
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
846 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The scenario played out pretty close to script this evening across
the western and central zones. Several pulsing thunderstorms
popped up from Park County into western Big Horn County bringing
some gusty winds and much needed rainfall to a few locations. As
of 8 pm, the intensity of the storms began to wane, although a
few rumbles of thunder and some occasional lightning may linger
for a little while. For the rest of the evening, the high
resolution models are indicating some redevelopment over the
eastern portion of the CWA during the overnight hours. None of
these storms should approach severe criteria. Singer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Several shortwaves will cross the forecast area through
Wednesday night and this will generate areas of showers and
thunderstorms. No real strong indications of severe thunderstorms,
but there are some parameters available to produce an isolated
severe storm here and there.

For tonight, one shortwave has exited southeast Montana and has
left subsidence in its wake. This has left the southeast zones
mostly clear today. A weak shortwave was poised to enter the
southeast zones this afternoon, but forcing was weak. MUcape was
highest over the east, at around 1400j/kg. with effective bulk
shear of 30-35kts. If a storm could get going over the southeast,
may be able to get strong to locally severe. Severe coverage
should be isolated though due to weak forcing, so will not
mention. Another shortwave was entering western zones this
afternoon and was generating a few showers and thunderstorms over
western zones as of this writing. Jet divergence was working into
the western zones and thus coverage should increase into this
evening. High resolution models spread scattered storms over
western and central zones through the evening. Shear looks rather
limited, so severe potential does not look that great. That being
said, could have some hail and strong wind gusts with cape around
1000j/kg. Timing of the activity looks similar to last night as
the storms could spread into the east overnight.

An upper ridge builds a bit Wednesday. The GFS takes a shortwave
across southeast zones Wednesday morning, with heights rising in
the afternoon. Timing of the shortwave and the thought of heights
building in the afternoon would serve to inhibit strong
thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another
shortwave tries to crash into the building ridge Wednesday evening
and this should generate another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms from western into central zones. TWH

For Thursday, a shortwave disturbance will pass through the area
in the WNW flow aloft on Thursday, generating a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Cooler north and
northeasterly flow will keep temperatures in the middle 80s
through most of the region, and in the lower 80s further northeast
closer to the better forcing and moisture. Can`t rule out a strong
storm or two out east in the afternoon, though widespread severe
weather is not expected. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

The long term period will start out with mostly dry northwest flow
aloft. A weak shortwave could generate a few higher elevation
showers and out east. With limited moisture around, and building
heights aloft, not expecting much coverage at this point.

West-northwest flow aloft backs to southwest over the weekend
with heights building and conditions drying out. Temperatures will
warm up as well reaching the low to mid 90s by Sunday. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few 100s in this type of weather pattern so
expect Sunday and Monday to be hot. As the southwest flow
strengthens towards the latter part of the weekend, some monsoonal
moisture moves in from the southwest above a deeply mixed boundary
layer. This will produce a chance for mostly dry, high- based
thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday afternoon. This will increase
the concern for more lightning fire starts across the region.

Model differences grow by the start of next week, though there is
a signal for a strong disturbance to cross through or just north
of the area on Monday or Tuesday afternoon. Wind fields looked
elevated behind this disturbance so it is definitely worth
keeping an eye on from a fire weather perspective. Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the area this
evening. Local MVFR conditions are possible and strong wind gusts
are expected. Storms are clearing from west to east...with best
chance of storms for KSHR...KMLS and KBHK overnight. AAG
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/087 062/086 061/089 062/095 066/097 063/090 060/090
    52/T    33/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 053/088 054/087 052/090 054/094 058/092 053/089 052/087
    42/T    33/T    31/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 061/089 059/088 059/090 061/096 063/099 060/093 058/093
    42/T    33/T    31/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 063/086 063/086 061/088 063/095 066/100 067/093 063/093
    43/T    34/T    42/W    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 061/087 061/087 061/088 061/094 065/099 067/094 063/094
    43/T    34/T    42/W    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 057/082 058/082 057/084 058/091 061/097 063/092 058/090
    35/T    34/T    52/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 057/089 057/086 054/089 056/094 058/097 058/093 057/091
    42/T    34/T    41/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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