Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230345
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
845 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Fog increasing over portions of southeast Montana tonight per web
cams though if one travels far enough east it becomes a stratus
cloud deck. Interface of the colder air moving towards south
central montana appears to be the favored location for the densest
fog and expect this interface to reach Billings area around 3
a.m. Stretches of I94 will see dense fog though it appears that
visibilities will not quite stay solid below 1/4 mile. Will be a
foggy commute in the Billings in the morning. Sent an update to
track this area of dense fog westward overnight. borsum

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Overall quiet day across the region. Fog continues creep east and
south in northeast zones this afternoon. Added mention of patchy
fog across much of north and east CWA after 00z...as backdoor
front should continue push southeastward...especially after dark
when west winds let up.

A weak shortwave in the Pacific flow will move across the CWA
toward evening. Low levels remain on the dry side so main affect
will be scattered snow showers over the higher terrain.

A storm system begins push into Beartooth/Absarokas Monday
morning. Upslope flow deepens and extended from Red Lodge
foothills to about Billings by mid afternoon...with flurries or
light snow beginning. Snow spread eastward through Monday night
and Tuesday. Models generally agree on a more southerly track
across southern Wyoming rather than favoring northern Wyoming.
The ECMWF does favor lifting the low back into southeast Montana
Tuesday morning...so should keep south...especially southeast in
pretty good shape for snow. Kept pops high across the
region...with only minor tweaks for collaboration...as chance
still look good for snow across the CWA. Did lower qpf and snow
amounts across north and central zones, based on more southern
track of system. Chose to hold off on highlights at this
time...as models continue to shift the track of the weather system
with every run. The Pacific low will move out of the area by
Tuesday afternoon...but broad trof will remain in
control...bringing potential for lingering showers through
Tuesday night. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...


A quiet extended forecast period following the early week system.
Residual moisture and cyclonic flow aloft will keep low chances
for snow showers in the forecast Wed/Thu with temperatures
remaining 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Amplified west coast ridge
flops over the divide on Friday bringing a dry warming trend to
the area through the weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures
will come some periods of gusty winds as well. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


Fog and low stratus has been slowly expanding south and west this
evening with low vsbys along the leading edge of the stratus deck.
Expect western extent of fog/low stratus to be a Roundup to
Billings to Broadus line overnight into tomorrow morning. This
includes KBIL, KMLS, and KBHK. IFR to as low as VLIFR cigs and
vsbys are possible.

For the rest of the area expect VFR ceilings to develop along
with increasing snow shower potential overnight resulting in local
MVFR conditions in the foothills and occasional mountain
obscuration. Chambers/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 018/029 017/025 011/025 012/022 014/028 018/033 023/037
    13/S    76/J    22/S    11/B    11/N    10/U    11/N
LVM 020/033 014/027 010/024 008/022 009/025 014/033 020/036
    24/S    85/J    22/S    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/N
HDN 010/026 012/024 002/023 007/022 008/027 010/032 016/036
    02/S    76/J    22/S    21/B    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 010/025 014/022 005/019 005/020 009/027 014/031 018/035
    02/S    56/J    22/S    21/E    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 011/027 014/024 006/020 008/021 009/026 014/032 019/036
    02/S    87/J    22/S    22/J    11/B    10/U    11/B
BHK 009/025 013/021 007/017 004/018 006/025 013/030 018/033
    02/S    56/J    32/S    22/J    11/N    11/U    11/N
SHR 013/029 012/023 003/022 003/022 008/028 012/034 017/039
    02/S    87/J    22/S    21/B    11/B    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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