Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
317 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

A weak cold front still expected to shift winds to the northwest
this morning. Much of the area will see winds shift by Noon. This
afternoon, more shortwave energy will be working across the area.
PWs remain 0.75 to 1.00 inch across the area. This will lead to
some afternoon convection. Most of the higher resolution guidance
is showing most of the activity on the terrain and weakening as it
moves off the higher terrain. Given the higher PWs, not expecting
dry thunderstorms. Tomorrow will again see moisture and energy
working through the flow. This will result in afternoon
thunderstorms again. High temperatures are expected to remain in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

The forecast area will be under an upper ridge through the period.
Models again were in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, but
differed in the amount of generated convection. Monsoonal moisture
and weak energy will advect into the western part of the area each
afternoon and bring slight chances of thunderstorms to the
mountains and nearby areas. A backdoor cold front will drop into
the region on Monday, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to far SE
MT. The GFS showed high MLCAPES over this area, but BRN numbers
were fairly high for strong thunderstorms. There is a continued
chance of storms over the E on Tuesday. CAPES were again high
across the area and BRN values were more supportive of strong
storms. Will have to watch model trends for these periods.
Wednesday through Friday looked like drier periods. Models were in
good agreement concerning temperatures with highs mainly in the
mid to upper 90s each day. The coolest day looks like Tue. behind
the front and with low-level E flow. Arthur



Isolated thunderstorms are possible around KLVM and KSHR this
afternoon, as well as over far SE MT. MVFR/IFR or lower conditions
will accompany the thunderstorms. Expect areas of mountain
obscuration through the day. Isolated thunderstorms will spread E
into Rosebud, SW Custer and Powder River Counties tonight. Again
storms will produce MVFR/IFR or lower conditions. Areas of
mountain obscuration will decrease overnight. Arthur



    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
BIL 091 067/093 065/095 065/095 064/092 064/094 064/095
    1/U 22/T    10/U    11/U    01/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 085 056/091 054/092 054/092 054/091 053/093 056/094
    2/T 22/T    11/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 094 066/094 063/097 063/097 062/093 062/096 062/097
    1/U 22/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 094 069/096 067/098 068/098 066/094 065/096 066/097
    1/U 11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 091 066/093 064/095 065/095 063/093 063/094 064/096
    1/U 22/T    11/U    11/U    21/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 090 065/093 062/094 064/095 061/091 060/092 061/094
    2/T 12/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    10/U
SHR 087 061/090 057/092 058/091 057/090 056/092 056/094
    2/T 22/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    10/U




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