Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 242227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
327 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Biggest issue with the short-term forecast will be winds. Gap flow
pattern will strengthen late Saturday night, and gradually become
stronger through Sunday evening. Thus have increased wind speeds
over KLVM and Nye to just below Advisory criteria late Sat. night
and continued these speeds Sunday morning. Pressure gradient
tightens during the day on Sunday as strong 700 mb winds move into
the western zones. This pattern will support Advisory strength
winds Sunday afternoon, with even stronger winds Sunday evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. In addition to a wind threat
in the gap flow areas, the strong 700 mb winds will affect the
corridor from Judith Gap to Big Timber Sun. afternoon and evening.
Confidence in how much wind will be able to make it to the surface
was limited, as the WRF maintained a strong low-level inversion
into the evening, as strong winds increase lower in the column.
Meanwhile, the GFS showed better mixing potential in the afternoon
with an inversion in the evening. Thus, have increased winds to
just below High Wind Warning criteria in these areas Sun.
afternoon and evening, and will issue an HWO and Weather Story
highlighting the possible high winds for all the above mentioned
areas. Will need to watch model trends closely for possible
Headlines in the future.

Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will be over the area through
Sunday and shift E Sun. night, ahead of the next Pacific wave.
Moisture fields supported some slight chance PoPs in the SW
mountains at times, otherwise the forecast will be dry through
Sun. evening. The cold front will bring a chance of rain showers
to western areas late Sun. night. Near-record high temperatures
are possible over KBIL and KLVM on Sunday, as highs reach the 60s
across the area. Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Dry weather pattern expected through much of the long term, but
first we`ll have to get through a round of heavy mountain snow,
and low elevation rain showers on Monday. Temperatures through the
extended period will start out warm but then begin to decrease
through most of the week as upper level heights lower. Expect
temperatures in the low to mid 50s on Monday....cooling into the
upper 30s and low 40s by Thursday. Warmer temperatures are
possible again by the weekend as heights rebuild across the
forecast area.

An elongated disturbance will push into the western US Monday
morning which will bring an end to the strong gap winds across our
mountain foothills. These winds will be replaced by increasing
clouds and precipitation chances through Monday as the system
passes overhead. High temperatures will likely be in the morning
hours as the morning cold front will keep temperatures steady or
decreasing through much of the day. We are not expecting snow in
the lower elevations at this time due to the warm temperatures,
but the higher elevations above 6000 ft could see 2 to 6 inches of
new snowfall through the day Monday. Breezy and cool
west/northwest winds move in behind the front Monday evening. Cool
weather is anticipated Tuesday but an increase in gusty winds
along the mountain foothills is possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Another weak disturbance moves through the forecast area
Wednesday evening but precipitation chances look lower with this
system. Another cool day is anticipated Thursday before upper
level heights rebuild and breezy/dry/warm conditions return for
the weekend. Dobbs



Gusty winds will taper off over the lover elevations as the
sun sets tonight. KLVM and other mountain foothill locations will
remain gusty through tonight. VFR conditions will prevail. Dobbs


    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 032/053 037/063 042/053 030/046 031/043 026/041 027/045
    00/U    00/B    13/W    10/U    01/B    10/U    00/B
LVM 030/050 039/062 041/047 025/042 027/038 021/037 024/041
    00/N    11/N    35/W    10/N    11/N    10/N    01/N
HDN 029/054 033/065 039/054 027/049 027/045 024/043 024/046
    00/U    00/B    03/W    20/U    01/B    10/U    00/B
MLS 029/052 031/061 038/054 027/046 026/045 024/041 024/044
    00/U    01/B    03/W    10/U    00/B    10/U    00/B
4BQ 027/053 033/064 040/056 028/046 026/045 025/042 024/046
    00/U    00/B    03/W    20/U    01/B    00/U    00/B
BHK 027/052 028/061 037/054 025/045 024/043 021/040 021/044
    00/U    01/B    03/W    10/U    00/B    00/U    00/B
SHR 028/054 031/067 038/055 025/047 024/043 021/042 022/046
    00/U    00/B    04/W    40/U    01/B    10/U    00/B




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