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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
854 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO THAT
THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN A BIT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SURFACE AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS MAY FORM LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN AN AREA OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25
INCHES AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GFS DEPICTING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z-09Z.

SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS STARTING AFTER 08Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH
14Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$