Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITING EARLY MORNING FOG EXCEPT AT
AGS WHERE BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 13Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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