Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
TODAY THEN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT SOME
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ALOFT...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AT 12Z.

THE WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST.
THE CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER MAP SHOWS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO OVER
2 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT LIKELY WILL INCREASE A BIT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MAYBE REACH THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND THEREFORE WILL BE CARRYING HIGHEST POPS THERE. THE
MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE
WEATHER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY GIVEN RELATIVELY CLOUDY START DUE TO STRATUS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 90S
AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET IN AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS. WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL YIELD HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE
FORCING ALONG WITH THE DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER PATTERN
FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF
ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. AS
MIXING COMMENCES...CLOUD BASED EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE ACROSS N FL/SE GA TODAY...EVENTUALLY TO THE SC
COAST TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...AFFECTING OGB.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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