Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 210748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINEUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DRY FRONT STILL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. AT 07Z...WINDS STILL LIGHT WSW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA)...WITH MAIN DEWPOINT GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
REINFORCING COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO NE BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. BAND OF THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
IMPULSE...EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST ELEMENTS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEGDE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSTION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPEHRIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP...HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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