Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 010557
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
The remnant circulation center of Bonnie will
remain near the North Carolina coast through Thursday. A slow
moving cold front will approach the forecast area over the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Latest radar loop showing Last bit of convection this evening
mainly over the southern Midlands moving to the south, which
should move out of our forecast area over the next hour. Latest
run of the SPC HRRR still indicating that the convection will
diminish by late evening. High low-level moisture and nocturnal
cooling will likely lead to areas of stratus and fog late tonight.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The models display a weak trough in or just south of the forecast
area through Thursday. This trough extends southwestward from the
remnant tropical system Bonnie which is forecast to remain near
the North Carolina coast through Thursday. High low-level moisture
associated with this system will continue. Nocturnal cooling
combined with this moisture will likely lead to the development of
areas of stratus and fog during the early morning hours. Heating
and mixing should help dissipate the stratus and fog later in the
morning. The models indicate weak upper ridging but with h5
temperatures -8 to -9 C and strong heating expect moderate
instability will occur during the days. The NAM indicates
surface- based LI`s -6 to -7. Expect mainly diurnal thunderstorms
with coverage limited by shallow moisture. Forecasted chance pops
as supported by the guidance consensus. The temperature guidance
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display a front slowly moving toward the
forecast area over the weekend. The models depict the deepest
moisture Sunday night ahead of the front with the front moving
through the area Monday. It may be dry behind the front for
Tuesday. Followed the guidance consensus for the pops and
temperatures during the medium-range period. Forecasted chance
pops with temperatures a little above normal.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current radar indicates scattered to isolated convection has
diminished across the cwa tonight.
Continued high level moisture is expected to result in some fog
or stratus late tonight/toward sunrise. Favored the NAM guidance
which has restrictions similar to last night. Included MVFR CIGS
and visibilities at CAE/CUB/OGB however CIGS may go down to IFR
during the early morning hours. Fog may be a concern at
fog-prone AGS with less cloud cover expected over the CSRA
tonight. Backed off on the timing of stratus and fog development
based on current satellite and ob trends.
Today...expect light winds throughout the day that will be
generally out of the north but variable at times. Without much
change in the moisture profile...isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon/evening hours. At
this time...not confident enough to place mention at any of the
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of diurnal convection through
Friday. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend
bringing associated restrictions.