Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
012 FXUS62 KCAE 152325 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical shower/storm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated storms into this evening Compared to the past week of weather, this evening has (so far) been nice and quiet. Convection has been limited, and what has been out there has been really weak. There are some reasons behind this. Instability is a bit lower than it has been really any of the last 5-6 days. We are north of a weak tropical disturbance moving across Florida and a band of lower PWs has been pivoting across the area this afternoon north of this feature. This is shown well in GOES PW imagery as well as traditional visible satellite imagery showing shallow convection and limited cumulus. There also is some subsidence associated with this per the 18z pass of the NUCAPS Sounder. All of this has combined to keep convection isolated and weak in nature. This is expected to be the case over the next several hours as the sun sets and instability continues to wane. Skies will likely be mostly clear tonight with lows falling into the low/mid 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): _ Scattered afternoon thunderstorms forecast each day. Weak troughing will persist at the surface across the Midlands of SC through the next couple days as low pressure meanders across Florida and into the Gulf. Aloft, ridging will hold strong over the southeastern states, building in from the east. A tropical-like airmass will remain in place, resulting in PWAT values pushing 2.0 inches at times. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, aided from the weak troughing at the surface. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. The overall severe threat remains low, with ML CAPE values only around 1000 J/kg and no mentionable shear. Storm motions look to be more progressive than previous days, lowering the flooding threat with any thunderstorms. However, a strong to marginally severe storm or locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out where boundary collisions occur. Each evening will feature diminishing rain chances and overnight lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key message(s): - Warming temperatures into the weekend. - Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers and thunderstorms Upper ridging will prevail aloft over the southeastern states, as supported by ensemble guidance. Additionally high pressure will build in at the surface. The building high pressure will yield warming temperatures, with high temperatures Friday and through the weekend reaching into the upper 90s. Heat index values are forecast to reach to around 100-105 through the weekend. Lacking any large scale forcing, a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers this evening should quickly dissipate with the loss of heating. Southeasterly winds will remain closer to 7-11 kts through sunset, then eventually become light and variable towards midnight. Models still showing some indications of stratus/fog toward daybreak, but went more with a persistence forecast late tonight due to guidance being overly aggressive the past few mornings. Restrictions can not be completely ruled out due to inclusion in models, so did show a low-level scattered cloud group towards morning to at least indicate that possibility. Vfr conditions will continue on Wednesday, with isolated showers once again possible during the afternoon hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$