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000
FXUS62 KCAE 300819
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST HAS DISSIPATED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
TOWARD THE COAST ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGHS ARE FORECAST
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READINGS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO START OFF DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY ACTUALLY RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION RAPIDLY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...TAKING THE PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS ALSO HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF DOES...WHICH WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. WITH THE
FASTER SPEED...THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY. WENT GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT
AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW
VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$