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000
FXUS62 KCAE 092319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
719 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PROVIDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT KEEP A GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. NOT QUITE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EJECTS EASTWARD. FOR
MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS. GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
MONDAY NIGHT AND MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERTAKE THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND WITH THE
PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALSO BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ENTERING THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. ALSO...SOME INDICATIONS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY STAY
UP A TAD...AND POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY DRIFT INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. THESE FACTORS CONTINUE TO
REDUCE CONFIDENCE OF FOG FORMATION. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE NOT
INDICATING FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A
TAD OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO
OUR SW AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR N/NE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH
AN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS
HAS LED TO FLOODING AT SOME AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. CONSULT OUR
WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$