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000
FXUS62 KCAE 242335
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
735 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF COLUMBIA.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  AT THIS TIME....WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCTS/VCSH
AND UPGRADE LATER IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY
OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$