Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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