Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 222345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
745 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
A dry and seasonably cool air mass will remain over the area
through Sunday. The air mass will modify Monday. Another cold
front will move through the area Monday evening with a re-
enforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. Slight chance of
showers late week as a fast moving system moves through the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will gradually shift eastward across
Mississippi and Alabama tonight, while a cool northwest flow
prevails aloft. Dry conditions at the surface and aloft will allow
clear skies to be maintained through the night, with surface
dewpoints remaining down in the 30s. Winds will be light out of the
northwest as cold air advection continues to wane and the center of
the surface high approaches from the west. All of these factors will
support nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Temperatures will fall quickly as a result, with many locations
experiencing lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, making it the
coolest night of the season so far. In fact, the local radiational
scheme for Columbia indicates a low of 38 and for Augusta a low of
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough over New England will be moving northeast while
a ridge builds over the Midwest and Gulf coast states. The
Carolinas and Georgia will remain in dry northwest flow aloft.
Neutral temperature advection Sunday along with downslope flow
should result in warming temperatures/modification of air mass.
Guidance temperatures appear on track with maximum temperatures
in the lower 70s...near seasonable normals. Overnight temperatures
Sunday night should be warmer than tonight due to a relatively
strong low level jet. Another weak cold front will approach the
region late Monday...so pre-frontal downslope flow
expected/weak warm advection. Guidance mild with maximum
temperatures around 80. Front will come through the area dry and
winds shift to northeast in the evening. Cooler air mass from the
Upper Midwest will be building southeast behind the front.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in relatively good agreement through Wednesday showing
an upper ridge over the center of the country with northwesterly
flow aloft over the southeastern states. GFS Model indicating poor
run-to-run consistency with a clipper system late week. The has
been more progressive and less amplified upper trough moving
through the eastern CONUS. Latest GFS is more in line with ECMWF
with a weak surface low moving from the Great Lakes region east
across New England. Weak trough extending south across the
carolinas through early Friday. Moisture appears limited and will
go with a slight chance showers Thursday and Thursday night.
Seasonable temperatures or slightly warmer than normal during the
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Dry, high pressure will continue to settle into the region in the
wake of a cold front. Fog is not expected tonight with the dry
airmass in place. Model time sections indicate a low level jet
around 20 knots through the evening diminishing by midnight.
Winds may become calm for several hours early Sunday morning.
On Sunday, surface high pressure will move over the region
reducing the pressure gradient. Wind speeds will be noticeably
weaker ranging from 5 to 10 kts generally out of the SW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.