Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 010953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
453 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE LOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE TRACKING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OHIO.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY END UP WITH
A WINTRY MIX AND COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING. SINCE THERE WILL BE A MIX AND COULD CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN WE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS AND CHANGED THIS AREA OVER TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY STILL REACH 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THE TOLEDO
AREA WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT WITH ACCUMULATIONS REACHING A FOOT.
THIS HEAVIER SWATH OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT WILL BE
LOCATED OUT OVER LAKE ERIE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
LAKESHORE AREAS WILL SEE 7 TO 9 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.

THERE REMAINS CONCERNS THAT THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK COULD SPREAD
THE WARM AIR FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. IF WE DO BEGIN TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE EAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED LOWER.

NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS.
THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES AND GET WINDS 12 KNOTS OR
HIGHER. THERE MAY END UP BEING SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE ERIE
ON MONDAY WHICH IS THE REASON WHY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER FROM
CLEVELAND INTO NW PA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MAY REACH THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. COOLER
TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER NW OHIO MAY DIP
TO AROUND 10 WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. NOT MUCH OF
A WARMUP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA MONDAY
EVENING BUT ALL SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. CANT
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE CWA. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY REACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW. IT LOOKS RATHER LIGHT BUT SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE
REGION MAY ONCE AGAIN DIP TO AROUND ZERO...AND MAY REACH 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MID/LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK. SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL ON SNOW COVERAGE AND
TIMING...WHETHER IT WOULD BE MORE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW HAVE STAYED ALL SNOW. COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING SINGLE
DIGITS BACK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIKELY
SUB-ZERO LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEKEND UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SNOW IS SPREADING EAST SOMEWHAT SLOWLY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK. A COLD
FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH
THE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME
THE GFS SOLUTION IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO LOOKS
GREAT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MIX PRECIPITATION MAINLY AT MFD...CAK
AND YNG SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT SOME RAIN WILL OCCUR AT CAK AND YNG
SUNDAY EVENING. AT MFD IT COULD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 32F. VERY CONFIDENT TOL WILL REMAIN
ALL SNOW. MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT FDY...CLE AND ERI WILL REMAIN
ALL SNOW...THESE WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OHIO TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AND NEARS THE AREA.
STILL EXPECTING A SOLID NORTHEAST 30 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE STARTING
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
BORDERLINE GALE FORCE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE LAKE WILL
BE FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF PREVIOUS TRACKS AS THE ICE SHIFTS.
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. NEXT SYSTEM/COLD
FRONT COMES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
IT...LOWS NEAR ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>030-036-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ031>033-
     037-038-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.