Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A warm front in southern Ohio will lift north of Lake Erie by early
tonight. Low pressure will move northeast across Lake Huron early
Wednesday pulling a trailing cold front across Ohio. High pressure
will move east across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.


A warm front will lift north across the area today. A low level jet
is feeding increasingly moist air into the frontal boundary. Expect
fairly widespread shra with some possible thunder to spread NE
across the area this morning, then the whole band will mostly lift
north into leri by the end of the day but not completely. Temps will
rise well above normal by late today, mostly from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Since the warm front will stall just north of Lake Erie, the threat
for shra and tsra will remain good for counties bordering the lake
tonight and Tuesday. The southern counties will only have a small
chance for rain.

3hr flood guidance is 1.5 inches or more and 6 hr is 1.6 inches or
more. Not expecting this much today so no widespread flood watch
planned. Biggest concern appears to be Lucas, Wood and Ottawa
counties since the band of heavier rain may not lift north of there
tonight and Tue. Will go ahead and and issue a flood watch for these
counties which will match up with adjoining counties placed in a
watch from DTX and IWX.

Temps will continue to stay well above normal tonight and Tue should
be even warmer than today with highs mostly from 68 to 74.


The models have settled into decent agreement on the timing of the
cold front on Wednesday, crossing northwest Ohio early Wednesday
morning, then sagging across the remainder of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Will have to watch the amount of rain that will accompany
the cold front as most of the models continue to advertise
instability primarily over the lower and mid Mississippi Valley
which could feed the conveyor of convection/rain into northwest
Ohio, especially later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitable
water is progged to be about 1.2 on Wednesday morning, still quite
high for February. The majority of the rain may be over in the
Toledo area by the afternoon. Temperatures will fall after fropa and
since the models are relatively close on their timing, the forecast
will use the blended hourly forecast temps.

There is uncertainty on how quickly the rain will clear the forecast
area or if it can clear the forecast area. Most of the models
continue to show weak waves on the front which will slow the
southward progress and the flow aloft remains southwesterly. The CMC
and ECMWF bring another batch of rain across the southeastern
counties early Thursday while the GFS is just south of the forecast
area. With positively tilted waves and the entrance region of the
jet overhead, will leave a chance of rain for the forecast area
southeast of I-71 into Thursday. There is some question on precip
type as the cold advection continues. Hard to find a model that has
critical thickness values low enough for snow except near Toledo and
the north side of Lake Erie. The model soundings continue to show a
warm layer aloft which would be consistent with the southwest flow
aloft. More of a risk of localized freezing rain than any snow but
will not try to forecast freezing rain 3 days out given so much
uncertainty. Forecast temperatures will be near or above freezing
and will just call it rain.


Pretty good chance that a more significant wave pulls the front back
north on Friday although there is some question whether extreme
northwest Ohio can get back into the warm sector. Forecast
temperatures will be a bit conservative across northwest Ohio
elsewhere it should warm back up again on Friday.

Yet another wave is likely later in the weekend, perhaps the last in
the train of waves as the jet stream aloft becomes more zonal which
may finally push the front east and bring more seasonable weather
back. We should be on the warm side through the weekend although
there is a decent spread in the models on just how warm it may get
and how quickly the cold front can swing back across the area. Will
continue to use the blended forecast to attempt to get to a
reasonable compromise.


.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR will give way to mix of low MVFR/IFR as shra rapidly develop SW
to NE across the area from 09z to 14z ahead of a warm front that
will lift north across the area thru this evening. Conditions will
then slowly improve from south to north later this afternoon and
early tonight as the more widespread rain shifts north with the
front. The airmass may become just unstable enough by later today
for some thunder to start to occur.

Southerly winds will continue to increase the rest of the night as a
moderately strong low level jet develops. Have continued to mention
low level wind shear in the TAF`s, especially for the time period
when the warm front is pushing across the region. Winds will become
more gusty from south to north as the rain decreases in coverage
Monday afternoon and evening.

The downsloping southerly flow near KERI will nudge wind gusts up by
sunrise and then likely persist into Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into Tuesday, especially for TOL and
ERI. Non-VFR possible all sites in showers on Wednesday then again
on Friday.


An increasing south flow will develop on Lake Erie today between
high pressure sliding off the east coast and a slow moving cold
front over the western Great Lakes. The south flow will become
southwest up to 20 knots or so and persist until the cold front
crosses the lake on Wednesday. Winds will shift to northwest to
north after the cold front, then veer to the northeast and southeast
at lesser speeds late in the week as high pressure slides across
eastern Canada.


Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday, February 20th.
Here are record high temperatures for climate sites for that date:

Climate Site       Record High    Year
Cleveland (CLE)        69         1930
Akron-Canton (CAK)     67         2016
Youngstown (YNG)       65         2016 and 1939
Mansfield (MFD)        66         2016 and 1930
Toledo (TOL)           66         1930
Erie, PA (ERI)         66         2016 and 1930

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are forecast to be close to
all time record highs for the month of February. Here are the all
time daily record high temperatures for the month:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017
Youngstown (YNG)       75         2/24/2017
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 4 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are also forecast to be
close to all time record highs for the meteorological winter season
(December - February). Here are the all time daily record high
temperatures for the winter season:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017 and 12/3/1982
Youngstown (YNG)       76         12/3/1982
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 6 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017


OH...Flood Watch from noon EST today through Wednesday afternoon
     for OHZ003-006-007.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
CLIMATE...Sefcovic is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.