Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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691
FXUS61 KCLE 180433
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1133 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the area will move off to the east this evening
then high pressure will spread northeast into the region wednesday
into thursday then shift east friday. A series of low will move
northeast from texas into the great lakes late friday through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Only minor changes to hourly temperatures have been made to
reflect current trends. Otherwise the current forecast appears to
be in reasonable shape.

Previous Discussion...
Cold front is east of the region with westerly winds at all
locations. The gustiness to the winds will decrease through the
evening as temperatures fall in the wake of the front.

Still watching another piece of jet energy moving toward the area
this evening. Between the flow off of the lake and the increased
lift associated with the jet energy it appears the area of showers
will increase in coverage before peaking after midnight. All
precipitation should remain liquid through the night. However
there are low chances that the rain could mix with some snow
across NW PA from just before sunrise through about noon. Do not
anticipate any accumulation but something to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will shift ese out of the area by midday with drier
air pushing in so the threat for light rain shra should mostly be
done by mid afternoon in the east where the threat will last the
longest. Temps on wed will be cooler with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and wed night will also be colder with lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s as the clouds break up.

The high will start shifting east on thu but still dominate enough
to keep conditions dry but clouds should be on the increase in the
afternoon.

The next low will move into the region fri but temps with this
system will be warm enough for just rain. The latest models indicate
rain should start to spread ne into the area late thu night and
likely be fairly widespread fri before tapering down sw to ne
late fri into fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures with periods of rain expected during
the extended portion of the forecast. Broad trough across North
America gradually shifts eastward with low pressure moving north
from the Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. Raised temperatures over the
weekend into the 50s and can not rule out a few locations
approaching 60. Saturday looks like the dry day between systems with
a good surge of moisture returning later Sunday into Monday. Models
in good agreement with deep moisture spreading north into the area
ahead of the nearly vertically upper level and surface lows curling
north towards the Ohio Valley. Will have to re-define pops over the
coming days once we get a better handle on if the low lift north
taking the rain with it or if it will stall to our south with a
longer period of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
An upper level disturbance will move through the area overnight
and will produce some rain, low ceilings, and lower visibilities
overnight. This will transition over to some drizzle during the
day and expecting drizzle to possibly last all day tomorrow at
Erie and Youngstown. Not expecting any recovery out of the IFR
conditions through any portion of this forecast period as low
level moisture continues to wrap into the area. Winds will
diminish overnight and gradually become southwest tomorrow
evening.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR will linger into Thursday in the
east. Non-VFR returns Thursday night and continues into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will shift to the eastern
Great Lakes overnight. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots with waves building to 2 to 4 feet on the east end of the
lake. Conditions are expected to remain just under Small Craft
Advisory Criteria overnight but will be choppy on the east end of
the lake.

Fairly good marine conditions expected for much of the week with a
prolonged period of above normal temperatures. High pressure will be
overhead on Wednesday then shift to the east coast on Thursday. A
series of weak troughs will lift out of the Plains across the
western Great Lakes over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC



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