Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 250206
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area
tonight into monday. High pressure will cross the eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday into Thursday. Low pressure is expected to move out
of the plains across Ohio Friday into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along
the cold front over lower Lake Michigan to the thumb of Michigan.
This activity will continue to move east across the area
overnight. Extreme western portions of the forecast area remain in
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms overnight. Otherwise,
rest of the area is in a general risk. Thinking is that storms
will still need to be watched for severe potential. Can`t rule out
the possibility for strong to severe storms overnight. Made some
minor modifications to the timing of the precipitation overnight
and the overnight lows. Dewpoint temperatures are in the middle
70s in the northwest and lower to middle 70s elsewhere. Adjusted
the forecast values upward overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will slowly press southeast on Monday. It is a weak
front and will undoubtedly be shallow. The morning showers/storms
and any new thunderstorms may be influenced by outflow boundaries
so it is difficult to determine how much new development there
could be. Will continue with a forecast of increasing pops from
northwest to southeast. Lake Erie and the immediate lakeshore
should become dry in the afternoon.
The storms should all be southeast of the forecast area by Monday
night. Temperatures will begin to cool off, at least a little.
High pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes through mid
week. The air mass will be drier but it will still be warm. Upper
80s for most except along Lake Erie where a north wind will cool it
off just a bit.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement with high pressure
centered over the lower lakes by mid week. high pressure gradually
moves east allowing for temps to rise into the mid to upper 80s.
Models continue to move large area of low pressure across northern
Ohio by the end of the work week. Low pressure moves into area on
Friday and moves east of the area Saturday. As far as timing GFS
continues to be faster than the ECMWF. Used superblend for the
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Showers have exited the area but regional radars show convection
developing upstream in northern Illinois and across southern Lake
Michigan. Although this area of convection may favor a trajectory to
the southeast where strong instability is present, expecting more
showers and thunderstorms to develop across lower Michigan overnight
ahead of an approaching trough. These will tend to move southeast
towards the area late tonight into Monday morning. Tried to time
thunderstorms into the western terminals after 08Z but left
thunderstorms out of the southeastern terminals where there is
less confidence in evolution and a later arrival time. Will
continue to monitor upstream growth and amend as trends appear
tonight. High dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in areas of
MVFR visibilities where skies are clear, especially at
MFD/CAK/YNG. Reduced visibilities are possible elsewhere but
cirrus from upstream convection will likely interfere. Wind will
generally be 10 knots or less out of the southwest tonight and
shift to the west during the day on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR
possible in thunderstorms on Friday.
Quiet conditions on the lake tonight give way to choppy conditions
in the east tomorrow. Winds will turn to the southwest and increase
to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow...behind a cold front will move across
the lake tomorrow morning. High pressure builds in quickly tomorrow
night and will remain over the lake through Thursday.