Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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173
FXUS61 KCLE 061334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE SHORE AREAS A BIT
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION...THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SURFACE
FEATURES...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW WE WILL SEE SOME
WARMING OF THE THERMAL PROFILE...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AROUND
70F IN THE WEST. ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN HE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. STILL LOOKING AT A NOTABLE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION AND LOW RH BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE SOME HINT BY THE MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST. ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEEPENING
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THE
DYNAMICS BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS THE
MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING A STRONG
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH SO BELIEVE THE NAM MODEL IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ONCE
AGAIN TRENDED FASTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP EARLIER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NW COUNTIES...THERE WILL LESS TIME TO TAP INTO THE PEAK
HEATING...AND MORE CLOUD COVER TO REDUCE CAPE VALUES. STILL
ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. THE PRECIP WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW
TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY WITH SW FLOW SUPPORTING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH 00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AS MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
ADVANCING LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP
ON TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT BECOMES DIMINISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL THEN BEGIN
TO CLEAR THE AREA OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WET AND ACTIVE
PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI HAS EXTENDED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN AND AROUND KCLE/KCAK/KYNG WITH SOME CIRRUS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
ENTIRE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN TO NOTE IS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH CLOSE TO SUNSET AND WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NON VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS ONE LOW
DEPARTS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
FROM MANITOBA CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE 5 TO 15
KNOTS TO START ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
IN CANADA WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH A GUST TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES LOOK TO BE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
SMALL CRAFT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT THREAT. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



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