Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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