Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 201924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
224 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

The weather for Thanksgiving week travel looks fairly good
overall. An early week mild temperature swing will be followed
by another shot of cold air Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
may create the potential for snow showers, falling temperatures
and slick roads over the Alleghenies. Dry weather with near
average temperatures is expected through Thanksgiving Day.


Clear skies expected tonight with variable minimum temperatures
based on elevation. Decoupled sites in the valleys could drop
into the lower 20s while a gusty SW winds keep the ridges
warmer/closer to the freezing mark.


A gusty SW return flow and plenty of sunshine will boost
temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday. Clouds
will increase into Tuesday night. Expect another shot of cold
air to follow behind a cold front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. A period of rain/snow is likely with the frontal
passage. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for
light snow accumulation/melting-refreezing may create slick
roads and areas of difficult travel overnight Tuesday into
early Wednesday.


An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of
Pennsylvania early Wednesday. Have dropped POPS through
Wednesday though have left slight chance in the NW due to the
northwesterly flow across the mountains. Another area of high
pressure will build east and keep us mainly dry at least through
the end of the week, before a new frontal system takes aim at
the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. There decent
agreement in the EC/GFS timing. The trough swings through
Saturday morning with 850MB temps right around freezing. So
given that overnight lows Saturday morning will be around
freezing expect for scattered snow showers across central PA as
the trough and associated front begin to cross the region
through Saturday afternoon. As the trough moves through
temperatures will be marginal through the low levels so a
rain/snow mix is currently expected with more chance of snow
farther northwest. Still to soon for amounts though any
rain/snow mix will tamper any accumulations. Have adjusted
temperatures as NBM seems to cold Friday night into Saturday.
Minimum temperatures will be below normal through mid week with
a warming trend into Saturday before dropping off Sunday and
into early next week.


VFR continues tonight into Tuesday. Expect wind gusts from
200-240 degrees 15-25kts on Tuesday.


Tue night-Wed...Rain/snow showers with sub-VFR likely wrn 1/2.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.




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