Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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388
FXUS61 KCTP 292255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET
WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COOL AND CLAMMY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA..AS THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS PROVIDING DEEP MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...LITTLE CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN 3-6 DEGREES OFF
FRIDAY`S HIGHS. SO WHILE WE WILL END UP SOME 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ACTUALLY BE
VERY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT I`M NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKYCOVER-WISE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
TODAY ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA
RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
-2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER
BEDFORD COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE
FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND
COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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