Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 102316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A warm front advancing north across southwest Kansas late this
afternoon will be the focus for an isolated thunderstorm or two, and
will carry some 15 to 20 POPs along a 50-60 mile wide corridor from
roughly Lakin down to Kismet, but late afternoon 1km visible
satellite was only showing moderate cumulus, with most of it being
south of the warm front where the boundary layer was well-mixed.
Should a storm form, damaging downburst winds to 60 mph would be the
only real concern. The tight pressure gradient (by mid July
standards) will continue through the night with winds staying up in
the 15 to 20 mph much of the night. The 500mb ridge will be parked
right over southwest Kansas tomorrow with nearly calm winds at this
level of the mid troposphere. Winds will be quite a bit stronger in
the lower troposphere with the lee trough holding strong through
Friday afternoon. Surface winds 25 to 30 mph sustained should be
realized by early afternoon with some gusts 35 to 40 mph out of the
south-southwest. The low level thermal ridge will be from
east-central Colorado northeast into far southwest Nebraska, so this
is the area where 100-degree heat should be found. We will continue
to carry the warmest afternoon temperatures across the far northwest
zones as a result (mainly northwest of a Syracuse to Hays line).
Elsewhere, upper 90s will still be common. The boundary layer
convergence will be found well north of the southwest Kansas region
as well, so surface-based thunderstorms will develop up in this
area, and we will be removing POPs across far west-central and
southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Friday Night/Saturday:

Went ahead and removed >14 pops and resultant weather for Friday Night.
The global models, as well as convective allowing models show any storms
remaining across Colorado and possibly into northwest Kansas. SW Kansas
will be capped off and firmly in the warm sector, so not expecting
thunderstorms at this time. Lows will be warm and in the 70s.

Kept the highest pops for Saturday afternoon and evening across the
northwest zones in association to closer proximity to the front. There
is a trend that the models are backing off on the convective signal,
so this may have to be cut back in future forecasts. Otherwise, a hot
day is expected with max values in the 95-101F range. Another mild night
with 70s for lows is expected heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday and beyond:

Will have to watch out for upslope/post-frontal convection Sunday across
the western zones, which the EC has been consistently showing. Maximum
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler and in the mid 90s.

The most significant item of interest is another fairly strong cold
front that moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Thunderstorms
will be possible along the front and then possibly later in a post-
frontal upslope flow regime. The airmass behind this front is quite
impressive for July standards (the 12Z EC solution). 850-hPa temperatures
in the lower teens C is quite the anomaly for this time of year. This
translates to surface temperatures in the 70s for highs and 50s! for
lows, which is from the raw EC output and matches pretty well with ECE
guidance. FWIW, the record low for the 16th for Dodge City is 51F.
I do have some 50s in there now for the middle portion of next week,
but don`t want to jump on the near record approaching outlier just yet.
Regardless, it will be wonderful next week temperatures-wise, with
widespread 70s rather than your typical 90s.

Allblend pops and temps were pretty much left alone since it looks
very reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Warm front will slowly move northeast across western Kansas
overnight. The RAP and NAM was doing a decent job on movement of this
front based on 21z surface analysis so will follow these models
for the wind shift as this surface boundary passes. Gusty winds
will decrease after sunset to 10 to 15 knots. The Winds are
expected to shift to the south/southwest as this front passes
Dodge City and Garden City between 00z and 03z. Hays will keep a
southeast wind throughout the night. Cloud cover this evening due
to late day heating will give way to clearing skies after 02z. Cloud
bases early tonight based on model soundings will be above the
6000ft AGL. Gusty southwest winds will develop by late Friday morning
across all of western Kansas as an area of low pressure at the
surface develop near northwest Kansas and stronger boundary layer
winds mix down to the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  98  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  70  99  70  97 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  97  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  70  99  71 100 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  72  99  72  96 /  10  10  10  30
P28  72  98  73 101 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert





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