Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140756
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Short range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Rockies early this evening then
dipping southeastward into the Northern Plains overnight before
moving into the Upper Midwest Sunday. Meanwhile, an attendant
cold front is projected to push southeast through western Kansas
early Sunday morning. However, a less than robust flow aloft
combined with much drier air in the lower/mid levels will keep
conditions fairly dry through Sunday afternoon. As for temperatures
tonight, a prevailing low level southerly flow will help erode
the colder air mass across the high plains before a cold front
begins to push into western Kansas early Sunday morning. Look for
lows down into the 30s(F) with the upper 20s(F) possible across
west central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor. For Sunday, highs
may struggle to reach the 50s(F) near the I-70 corridor as cooler
air filters southward into western Kansas during the day. Highs
in the 50s(F) are more likely further south near the Oklahoma
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through much of
the period as medium range models indicate a prevailing northwesterly
flow aloft early in the period giving way to upper level ridging
moving out of the Rockies by mid week. Considering the drier air
mass remaining intact across the high plains, little if any precip
is expected across the region through at least Wednesday. A
general warming trend will occur through the middle part of next
week as the aforementioned upper level ridging moves slowly across
the Intermountain West into the high plains of western Kansas.
Warmer air will move into western Kansas Monday under the
influence of a westerly downslope flow, pushing H85 temperatures
above 10C. Look for widespread 60s(F) Monday afternoon with near
70F possible in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak frontal passage
early Tuesday will lead to a brief break in the warming trend
before resuming Wednesday. Highs will likely be well above
seasonal by Thursday, possibly in excess of 20 to 25 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving thorugh the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell



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