Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25 knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The weather pattern Sunday through the middle of next week will
generally consist of an upper level long wave trough positioned
across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies with a large
upper level high located across the eastern United States. A series
of shortwaves will move around the trough enhancing lift across the
Central High Plains. Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly
saturated through this period as moist air from the gulf continues
to feed into western Kansas. Towards the surface, a weak cold front
is progged to move through about half of the area Sunday shifting
winds to the north to northeast behind it with continued southerly
winds ahead of it. This front then moves back as a warm front Sunday
night into Monday morning before becoming stationary across central
Kansas through Wednesday night. This frontal boundary will be the
main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to develop
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance
of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
aforementioned upper level trough starts to shift eastward and
closer to the forecast area. Winds will generally be from the east
north of this boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period with highs Sunday through
Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 90s and lows ranging from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Wednesday look to range from the lower 80s across west
central Kansas to lower 90s across south central Kansas.

A drier period is expected for the remainder of the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the western United states and the upper
level trough shifts into the eastern United States. Skies become
mostly clear during this time frame with winds shifting back to more
of a southerly direction by Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A surface trough in the lee of the Rockies will gradually move
eastward into western Kansas by Sunday. Breezy south winds at
15-20 kts will subside to 10-15 kts with the loss of daytime
heating by 00z. Winds will become light southwesterly as the surface
trough approaches the TAF sites by 15z. VFR conditions can be
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  95  69 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  95  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  97  70  93  67 /  20  10  20  20
P28 101  74  99  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch






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