Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 290910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND IT`S
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE
WIDESPREAD WITH SOME BREAKS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND LIFT
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM IN
THE EVENING SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY
LOOK TO REACH TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SOME COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO 18C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BASED ON THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEAN FLOW WILL OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A DOWN
SLOPE FLOW TO IMPROVE. THIS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND
MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER.

BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE ROCKIES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE DAY AND THIS WILL RISE
TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  52  70  51 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  79  51  69  52 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  78  51  70  55 /  30  40  10  10
LBL  79  53  71  53 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  79  51  69  49 /  30  30  10  10
P28  81  56  71  52 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.