Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 271947
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/28 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08


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