Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 302248
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE IN THE COMING WEEK WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT)...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HUG THE
COASTLINE AND ARE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE...ALTHO BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST AREA NOTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS ALSO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE THICKEST
BATCH OF CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING NE OF THE AREA A BIT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MON...IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SHIFT NE WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY AFFECTING AREAS N OF THE AREA. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER S OR ON
SUNDAY. ALTHO WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
NE MOUNTAINS...ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AFTER IT
DEVELOPS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS BY...BUT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TRINITY HORN. /SEC

.LONG TERM (WED THRU SAT)...AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA...MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF IN
BRINGING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS A
STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. BOTH MODELS
GENERATE SOME PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. MODELS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 80S TOWARDS 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
BETTER CLEARING DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS PROMOTING BETTER MIXING. STP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC
AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY.
CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AT KCEC AND KACV REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT KCEC AND KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO
CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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