Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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