Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 181150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IS DECREASING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WILL GO
WITH TEMPOS OF SHRA FOR KAUS...KSAT AND KSSF UNTIL MID MORNING.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HAVE
MENTIONED VCSH AT ALL TAFS. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS AN MCS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH PROB30S FOR ALL TAF
SITES...THIS EVENING AT KDRT AND OVERNIGHT AT KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF. CIGS LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. E TO SE WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  74  91  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  90  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  89  72  89 /  80  40  40  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  90  74  89 /  20  30  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  90  73  90 /  60  40  40  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  73  91  72  90 /  80  40  50  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  75  91  75  92 /  40  40  40  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  92  74  93 /  40  40  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





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