Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 180534 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire period. SKC will
transitions to only FEW/SCT250 through the day Wednesday. Surface
winds overnight will be light and variable to even calm at times.
Surface winds will increase to 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon from
the south for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. Slightly higher winds in the 10 to 15
knot range will occur at KDRT.

Much lower cloud ceilings are expected by Thursday morning (09Z-15Z)
as moisture increases. MVFR/IFR ceilings with possible patchy fog
looks probable at all sites. Will likely introduce lower ceilings on
next TAF package for the 30-hour TAF sites (KAUS/KSAT).

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Lower to mid level ridging maintains its hold tonight into Wednesday
morning. Light winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass with PWs around
1/4 inch allow efficient radiational cooling with lows tonight 10 to
15 degrees below normal for mid October. Expect some low lying spots
in the Hill Country to have lows in the upper to perhaps mid 30s
again. Ridging drifts off to the east later on Wednesday into night
as an upper level shortwave trough approaches from the west. A
Southerly flow returns. Initially, it produces slightly warmer, near
normal highs during the day. Then, increasing moisture leading to
stratus formation with much warmer lows at night.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The upper level shortwave trough moves across Texas Thursday into
Thursday night. Significant moisture returns with PWs rising to near
1.5 inches leading to low chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms by afternoon into evening. Shortwave moves off to the
east leaving weak troughiness Friday into Saturday. With only weak
forcing and instability will maintain only low chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Models continue to come
into better agreement bringing a cold front across our area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning with a stronger upper level trough
on its heels. Expect a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along
the front with some stronger storms possible as instability and shear
increase. For now, though, it appears that the strongest storms will
be north and east of our area. Showers and thunderstorms move off to
the east Sunday afternoon as drier air filters into our area. A dry
pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday due to a northwesterly flow
aloft along with surface ridging. A warming trend to above normal
temperatures is expected for Thursday into Saturday night. In the
wake of the front, low temperatures cool off to below normal due to
lower dewpoints while high temperatures cool slightly to near normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  60  82  64  81 /   0   0  10  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  58  81  64  82 /   0   0  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  58  81  65  81 /   0   0  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            81  56  79  62  78 /   0   0  10  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  59  81  66  82 /   0   0  -   10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  57  81  64  80 /   0  -   10  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             82  57  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  59  81  64  81 /   0   0  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  60  84  65  83 /   0  -   20  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  60  81  66  82 /   0   0  20  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           82  60  81  67  83 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05


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