Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
928
FXUS64 KEWX 262325
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy northwest flow at the surface will begin to diminish around
sunset as the boundary layer decouples. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail throughout the forecast period as dry air remains in place
across the region. Southerly winds will increase once again beginning
tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Critical fire weather conditions are extending slightly east of the
RFW area, but based on near normal fuel conditions for spring, the
brief occurrence of critical fire weather conditions should treated
as "near critical". Counties in the RFW area are seeing a more
prolonged exposure to the windy and dry conditions and over areas
where 10 hour fuel moisture levels and fuel dryness suggests that
vegetation is more prone to carry fire. The mixing of very dry air
across all counties along and west of the I-35 corridor will bring
another morning of cooler than normal conditions for Thursday.
Southerly winds already to return for areas along the Rio Grande by
Thursday morning will help hold temperatures a few degrees higher,
but still below normals. Breezy and dry conditions are again expected
for the Southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande as the
gradient tightens Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Progressive zonal pattern aloft broadens on Friday as shallow and
broad upper troughing develops over the desert SW. The dryline is
expected to mix east into western counties friday, but with lighter
winds. Troughing to the west is shown in model consensus to deepen
further Saturday and this deepening trends would suggest a higher
PoP for Saturday night. While the day4 outlook suggests the marginal
severe threat to be over our far Ern counties, the model trends would
suggest a more aggressive ECM/CMC type solution and a chance for
strong storms to encroach closer to the Hwy 281 corridor. The deeper
solution also would suggest capping to preclude most deep convection
during the day Saturday. The upper low should clear convection
quickly east by Sunday morning, and the progressive movement is
unlikely to create a favorable scenario for heavy rain potential. Dry
air mixing will be efficient again for Sunday with a cooler than
normal night expected Sunday night. The progressive pattern continues
early next week with increased moisture and another broad troughing
pattern to possibly increase thunderstorm potential for next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  84  68  91  75 /   0   0  -   20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  84  68  90  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  85  68  91  75 /   0   0  10  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            49  82  67  89  72 /   0   0   0  -   20
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  90  68  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  83  68  90  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             51  88  67  94  74 /   0   0  -   -   20
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  84  68  90  74 /   0   0  10  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   51  84  68  90  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  86  69  92  75 /   0   0  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           54  87  69  93  75 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.