Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 301045
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions prevail today through Saturday. FEW-SCT
cirrus will lower and thicken overnight into Saturday as a weak
upper level impulse approaches our area. Surface ridging maintains
light winds with speeds less than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
South Central Texas remains under the influence of a mid-to-upper
level ridge between a quasi-stationary cutoff low centered over
Kentucky and a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Clear
skies and weak northerly winds behind yesterday`s reinforcing
cold front is allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and
lower 60s for most of the region this morning. Weak H850-925 cold
air advection will allow high temperatures to be about 5 degrees
cooler than yesterday, but Superblend was adjusted up a few
degrees to match guidance trends, previous forecasts, and the
potential for weak adiabatic warming. A weak shortwave moving
through the region will increase high clouds overnight tomorrow
into Saturday, but this will just briefly curtail the warming
trend by keeping high and low temperatures similar to today`s.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Pleasant early fall weather will continue as southerly flow
returns by Sunday and temperatures return to near normal with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Temperatures will warm a few more degrees Monday and Tuesday under
the influence of high pressure, although morning low clouds may
return by Tuesday as deeper moisture returns to the region. A weak
cold front will approach the region on Wednesday as the trough
currently in the Pacific Northwest moves into the Central Plains.
The ECMWF progresses the front through the region late Wednesday
into Thursday whereas the GFS has slightly higher H500 heights
over Texas and does not. Considering both solutions show the
trough rapidly lifting to the northeast over the Dakota at that
time, the GFS which keeps temperatures warmer than normal through
the end of next week seems more likely to occur. Nevertheless,
the front should provide at least a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday continuing into Thursday
with any outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  59  83  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  53  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            79  56  82  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  62  83  64  86 /   0  -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        80  54  82  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             84  56  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  56  82  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  58  82  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  58  82  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  60  83  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH


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