Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300528
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD DROP TO IFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THAT. LOW CIGS WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT BY ABOUT 12Z. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR WILL COME LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. LOOK FOR A REPEAT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...AS A RESULT OF THE MORE BULLISH CLOUD FORECAST PER
HRRR/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RAP OUTPUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OVERALL
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MAY HELP
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED AND AN UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW AS WELL. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THANK FOR A WARM AND SUNNY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE REACH OUR AREA. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND FOR MONDAY. WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE WEAK FRONT TO
OUR NORTH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH SOME MORNING STREAMER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN ANTONIO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE TODAY AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND APPROACH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TERMS OF THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A STRONG
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR DAY 3. CAPE VALUES OF 1200 J/KG AND DECENT SHEAR SUPPORT THE
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO
THE 90S. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FRONT
AND THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  62  79  62  78 /  20  20  20  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  61  78  61  78 /  20  20  20  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  61  80  61  79 /  20  20  20  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  61  79  61  78 /  20  20  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  65  81  61  86 /  -   20  30  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  62  79  62  77 /  20  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  61  79  61  81 /  10  20  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  79  61  78 /  20  20  20  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  61  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  62  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  62  80  62  80 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24


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