Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300017 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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