Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 011934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  30  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  20  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31





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