Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 290833
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NEAR A LA GRANGE TO
MILLEDGEVILLE LINE AND PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF EMBEDDED MODERATE
RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS
BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SE STATES
THIS MORNING. A BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN SHIELD WAS NOTED OVER NW AL
AND TIMING TOOL SUGGEST THIS BACK EDGE WILL REACH NW GA AROUND 7-8
AM... ATLANTA AROUND 10-11 AM... AND MAYBE AN ATHENS TO COLUMBUS
LINE AROUND 1-2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT... WITH EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ACROSS NORTH GA... AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/4
INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GA BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THEREFORE... PLAN TO CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE NEW 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS
MAINLY THE TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT... SERVING TO HELP HOLD
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME... EXPECT CLEARING ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR TEMPS... LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TODAY
WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN... THEN TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

39

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX
OVER THE FAR N COUNTIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 30 TO 32.
MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY INDICATING ONLY LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HOWEVER...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD VERY EASILY BE BEFORE ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND RISE SOME THE LAST PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS.

MODEL BLENDS THEN INDICATING BEST RAIN POTENTIAL OVER N AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN OVERRUNNING FLOW AND
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MUCAPE BELOW 500.

COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING N
AHEAD OF IT. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED WITH CAPE OF
500 TO 1000 OVER THE CENTRAL GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST SHEAR
REMAINING TO THE NORTH. GFS AND EUROPEAN HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MUCH
DIFFERENT AND THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FROM A LOW LEVEL SHEAR
STANDPOINT.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR BY 09Z THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 17-18Z TODAY... WHEN CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR. MAY SEE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS AT TIMES WITH THE ONSET OF
OCCASIONAL -RA... BUT OVERALL CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AS THE AREAS OF -RA DIMINISH. COULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS SETTLING BACK DOWN TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT NW WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING... THEN NW AT
5-7KT BY 18Z TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING AND DURATION OF LIFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  44  59  37 /  80  20  10  10
ATLANTA         62  46  57  35 /  70  10   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  40  51  30 /  60  20  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  41  53  33 /  60  10   5   5
COLUMBUS        66  48  63  39 /  80  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     59  44  54  35 /  70  20  10  10
MACON           65  46  63  40 /  80  20   5  10
ROME            58  41  52  31 /  50  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  40  58  35 /  70  10   5   5
VIDALIA         67  51  65  44 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39



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