Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 040154 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
954 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POP AND WX BASED ON NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS AND
SOME HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL HIRES WRF ARW MODELS AND RECENT
HRRR RUNS INDICATING CHC FOR SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND MIDDLE GA OVERNIGHT. SAT IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOT DISSIPATING AS FAST AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE EVENING AFTER WARM SEASON CONVECTION. WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS
GOING ALL NIGHT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GA WITH A FEW OF THEM BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. LOOKING AT THE
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST INTO NORTH GA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS A
FAIRLY LARGE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPINNING UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
DRY SLOT SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD SEE LESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM ALSO.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A WEDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015/
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SE US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD DURING EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE TROUGH OUT TEMPORARILY AND GOING
TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...A PRETTY DECENT WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEDGE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDIER
SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HIGH CHANCE
POPS.

THE WEDGE DOES LOOK TO ERODE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
NO AVIATION WX CONCERNS THRU 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH SOME MVFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING /NONE AT KATL/. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE 19Z-01Z TOMORROW BUT
EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM.
SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS AND SWITCH FROM NNW TO NNE
AROUND 12Z AT METRO ATL AIRPORTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD FRI AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  93  70  86 /  20  30  30  50
ATLANTA         72  91  72  88 /  20  30  20  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  82 /  20  50  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  92  69  89 /  20  30  10  40
COLUMBUS        73  93  73  91 /  20  20  10  40
GAINESVILLE     70  89  70  84 /  20  30  20  50
MACON           70  92  71  89 /  20  30  30  50
ROME            68  92  69  89 /  20  20  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  69  88 /  20  30  20  50
VIDALIA         73  92  73  89 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON



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