Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 050218
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1018 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND POPS REFLECT THIS TREND. WITH THE
SHOWERS DISSIPATING...THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY AS
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...PRIMARILY IN
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

.WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 8 AM THURS MORNING TO 11 PM THURS
NIGHT FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
EARLY MAY. STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER S GREAT LAKES IN PROCESS OF
PUSHING SOUTH INTO OH VALLEY AT AFD ISSUANCE / WHICH WILL HELP SET
UP A TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK BY 12Z THURS/. SEVERAL
POTENT VORT MAXES WITHIN THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS OH AND WV...DRAGGING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL FRONT INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CU DECK AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SAT/OBS SHOW AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ATL METRO
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NICE MID/UPPER JET FORCING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...ALONG WITH STRONG 500MB TEMP/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO DO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL: WITH 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS -20C ATOP
MODEST SFC HEATING...EXPECT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR THUNDER. LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM SHEAR
30-40KTS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF GRAUPEL/HAIL IN STRONGEST
CONVECTION. NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED. THUNDER POTENTIAL TO DROP
OFF AROUND 02Z.

WINTER POTENTIAL: YES...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.  PREFER THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH DOES PUSH H85 0C
LINE/SUB 540DM LING ALONG NORTHEAST GA BORDER. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AND LOW TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...A
FLAKE OR TWO MAY STILL PUSH OUT ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NE GA.
THINK BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO DID NOT MENTION IN
GRIDS.

THURSDAY...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPS
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH GA...ESPECIALLY THE MTNS...AS COLD CORE LOW DIGS DEEPER INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NIL INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT THUNDER.

KOVACIK

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

REFRESHED FCST PERIOD WITH RECENT BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH
RESULTED IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. BACKDOOR
FRONT MONDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA SO KEPT DRY CONDITIONS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FETCH
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST SO MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GREATEST
CHANCE CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY NORTH GA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHRA ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES ON TRACK TO
REACH ATL FROM THE NORTHWEST BY AROUND 01Z. TEMPO GROUP INCLUDES
NW GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF ATL ON THURSDAY
ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  66  47  74 /  50  30   5   5
ATLANTA         50  64  49  71 /  60  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     44  56  44  66 /  60  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    47  63  44  72 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        53  70  49  74 /  30   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     49  61  48  70 /  60  30   5   0
MACON           51  70  47  75 /  20  10   5   0
ROME            47  65  46  73 /  60  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  66  45  72 /  50  10   5   0
VIDALIA         55  71  49  74 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...RW



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