Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 241845
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Isolated convection having a hard time getting ramped-up this
afternoon but should continue to slowly increase in strength and
coverage for the next couple of hours before diminishing. Still
not anticipating more than low-end scattered coverage and severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.
Very little appreciable change to the overall pattern through the
short-term forecast period. Forecast area remains under weak
upper- level ridging and on the western periphery of the western
Atlantic surface ridge. Models also continue to show some weak
surface troughiness on the northwest side of ridge over the
forecast area persisting through the period as well. All of this
adds up to little change in the general forecast trends through
Monday night with near to slightly above seasonal normal lows and
above seasonal normal high temperatures with isolated to scattered
diurnal convection. Instability remains marginal at best for any
strong to severe storms.
Small area of the east-central Georgia portion of the forecast
area flirting with Heat Advisory level Heat Index values this
afternoon however the area is small and not expected to expand
significantly. Forecast Heat Index values tomorrow are similar or
slightly below todays values so I do anticipate an advisory will
be needed at this time.
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes were made to the extended period as the typical
summer-time pattern continues with mainly isolated to scattered
diurnally driven convection expected each day... and above normal
temperatures continue. See the previous discussion below. 39
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
An upper level ridge will continue across the southern
Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and
thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after
midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.
The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday. However
plenty of moisture and instability will continue chances for mostly
diurnal showers and storms favoring N GA. Another hot day with high
temperatures in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of
the mountains. Heat indices will range 100-105 for a large portion of
central and E GA.
The upper level ridge pattern continues for Wednesday with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms favoring N GA. Most high
temperatures will again be in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s
for portions of the mountains.
The upper ridge shifts some to the se for Thursday...more so on the
GFS than the European and the GFS has more moisture for N and W GA
than the European. This will still favor N GA for showers and storms.
The GFS minimizes the upper ridge for Friday and Saturday with more
moisture across the area while the European holds the ridge in more
with less moisture. This will still favor N GA with the greatest chances
for showers and storms.
/ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area through
the majority of the forecast period outside of isolated to scattered
convection. Will see some local to scattered MVFR or lower
visibilities developing in the 06Z-14Z time frame...however I do not
believe the chances are high enough at any TAF site to include in
the forecast right now. Will see isolated to scattered convection
across the area through around 00-02Z. Winds are expected to remain
generally southwest to west through the period...generally 6KT or
less. Winds will become very light to calm after 00Z and may be a
bit variable in direction 00Z-14Z.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on tsra timing and coverage.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 30 30
Atlanta 74 93 74 93 / 20 40 30 30
Blairsville 68 90 69 88 / 20 40 30 50
Cartersville 71 94 71 93 / 20 40 30 40
Columbus 75 95 75 94 / 20 30 30 30
Gainesville 74 94 74 92 / 20 40 30 30
Macon 73 95 73 96 / 20 30 20 30
Rome 72 95 72 94 / 20 40 30 50
Peachtree City 70 93 71 93 / 20 40 30 30
Vidalia 73 95 73 96 / 20 20 20 20