Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051343
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015


.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TN WELL DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.

WV STILL SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GOMEX. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTH AND THEN IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NORTHERN PRECIP IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW...AND MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE. THE PRECIP DOWN SOUTH IS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
DOWN SOUTH...WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP UP
NORTH. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
HOW THE CONVECTION DOWN ALONG THE COAST EVOLVES.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS
ITS CLOSED CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING AND
HAS ROTATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ANOTHER BAND FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER BY
MID MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND INTO COLUMBUS THROUGH 12Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THEREAFTER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THINKING WE WILL HAVE
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED SPOKE OF VORTICITY COMING UP FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION TO AFFECT AREAS FROM CSG TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD. SECOND AREA
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN PROVIDES THE NECESSARY ENERGY FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF
STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ATL METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C AT 500MB WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DUE TO THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP FOR NORTH GA...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPPER LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND HINTS OF SOME DRIER
AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCED POPS.
SOME GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY BUT WOULD
LIKE ATMOSPHERE TO PROVE IT TO ME FIRST BASED ON ACTIVE PATTERN
THIS SUMMER. HAVE THEREFORE GONE CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE
INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING
ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO LIFT JUST AFTER DAYBREAK BUT INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  68  86  70 /  60  60  30  20
ATLANTA         81  70  84  71 /  70  50  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     75  63  81  64 /  80  60  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    81  67  84  69 /  70  50  40  20
COLUMBUS        83  70  87  72 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     80  68  84  70 /  70  60  30  20
MACON           86  69  88  71 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            81  68  85  69 /  60  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  81  68  85  70 /  60  30  40  20
VIDALIA         90  71  88  72 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$


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