Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 191111
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Short wave exiting the CWA and rapid improvement will occur this
morning with an H5 ridge building over the CWA through the short
term. This will keep the CWA dry and stable through Monday.
Increasing H5 heights will also yield increasing thicknesses which
will bring record or near record high temperatures both today and
Monday.

17

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over
the CWA through Tuesday afternoon. Another developing frontal
system moves out of the southern and central plains and into the
Southeastern U.S. Tuesday morning. This front brings increased
chances of showers to the CWA Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
The forecast models differ a bit on the strength and intensity of
this next system but they both show it weakening as it pushes
into GA. There is very little instability with it so staying with
showers and no mention of thunder. This weakening system keeps
increased moisture over the area through the end of the work week
so will keep slight chance to chance pops across the area through
then. Another short wave and associated cold front will move out
of the midwest and into the eastern US Friday. This system is
expected to have a little more instability with it so keeping in
the mention of isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday Night.
This second front appears to move east of the CWA Sat and clear
things out for Sat afternoon and Sun.

01

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958
                                        1986
                                        1961
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958
                                        1981

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015
                                        1994        1934
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015
                                        1917
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015
                1986



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs will becoming VFR by 16Z at most
locations. Afterwards VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of
the forecast. There will be patchy fog but this will dissipate by
14-15Z this morning. Winds will be light westerly becoming
northwest 5 to 10 kts today...diminishing to near calm tonight.
Winds will switch to the southeast after sunrise Monday morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on CIGS.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  46  75  48 /   5   0   0   0
Atlanta         70  49  74  52 /   5   0   0   0
Blairsville     66  39  71  45 /   5   0   0   0
Cartersville    70  44  74  50 /   5   0   0   0
Columbus        73  49  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     69  47  72  50 /   5   0   0   0
Macon           76  47  77  50 /   5   0   0   0
Rome            70  44  73  50 /   5   0   0   0
Peachtree City  72  44  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         76  51  77  53 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17



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