Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200305
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
805 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE POP...WX AND SKY IN THE 06Z-12Z
MONDAY PERIOD.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WARMING ABOVE 550 MB
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. BELOW 55O MB...SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...
DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z ON MON...DECREASING
AFT 03Z TUE. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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