Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect lingering snow showers to end from west to
east this morning, leaving behind cool, dry and sunny conditions
this afternoon. Dry weather will continue into next week, with a
warming trend.


.UPDATE...Upper level trough axis is moving into New Mexico this
morning. Snow is still falling in Apache County this morning with
clearing in much of the rest of northern Arizona. Have adjusted
PoPs, Wx, and sky cover to account for this faster trend.


.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...A cold low pressure system over
the Four Corners early this morning will continue to move
eastward and away from Arizona. Instability showers behind the
cold front were far more prolific, widespread and persistent than
was previously thought. There are still moderate to heavy snow
showers along the Mogollon Rim this morning, with activity
stretching northeast toward Window Rock, as well as the White

We made numerous updates earlier to raise precipitation chances
and snowfall amounts overnight. These higher chances will carry
into the early morning hours today, but showers should decrease
rapidly from west to east for the remainder of the day, as dry
and stable air moves into the southwest.

After today, expect a warming trend as a ridge rebuilds over the
southwest. A fast-moving cold front may bring a few showers to the
area Thursday or Friday, but most of the energy remains north in
the Great Basin. Most models predict strong ridging again by next
weekend and beyond.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Mainly VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours except local MVFR ceilings KRQE northward until 21Z.
Surface winds northwest at 15-25 kt through the day then diminishing
overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Snow showers to decrease in coverage from west
to east today. Dry weather for all from tonight through Monday.
Afternoon ventilation fair to good on Sunday but poor to marginal by
Monday under stronger inversions and lighter winds.

Tuesday through Thursday..High pressure will bring dry conditions
and a daytime warming trend through Wednesday. Expect variable high
cloudiness. On Thursday, a fast moving weather system will bring
gusty southwest winds.






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