Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192310
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SO FAR TODAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE COCONINO PLATEAU...AND BLACK MESA REGION.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS HAS BEEN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH A PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM THAT PASSED BY
KACHINA VILLAGE PRODUCED ENOUGH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL TO COVER
THE GROUND AND SLOW TRAFFIC. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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