Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 080410
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
APACHE COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
TWEAK GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT SHORT-TERM TRENDS TO BOTH PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /406 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE
PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH RES MODEL
DATE INDICATES THAT MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN ARIZONA AS A UNUSUALLY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS MOST AREAS, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PIVOTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, EVEN DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION, WHILE MOISTURE HANGS ON IN EASTERN ARIZONA AND
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS WELL. SOME HIGH COUNTRY LOCATIONS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S THURS/FRI MORNINGS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK IN FROM THE EAST, PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME AT LEAST AS FAR
WEST AS THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TSRA/-SHRA TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEST OF A KPAN-KPGA
LINE...WITH SCT TSRA/SHRA EAST OF THAT LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO ARIZONA
WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES ON
FRIDAY...AND WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/JJ
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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