Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
847 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cool start Sunday before warming back up to near
normal high temperatures for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will
trend above normal with light winds and dry conditons through the
end of next week.


.UPDATE...Temperatures are cooling quickly tonight with a very
dry air mass in place and mostly clear skies. We expect some of
the coldest overnight lows yet this fall season tonight. Most of
northern Arizona will dip below freezing except the lower
elevations south of the Rim. Much of the high country will drop
into the teens to mid 20s. Otherwise, quiet weather is in store.
No major forecast updates needed tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION /357 PM MST/...Sunday will start out cool with
winds remaining light under clear skies overnight. This will
quickly be turned around by warming during the day to near normal
temperatures. High clouds return Monday morning with increasing
cloud cover through the day along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the area as we move into
Monday warming temperatures back up to 5 to 10 degrees above
normal through the mid week. This pattern looks to stay in place
through the next seven days resulting in dry conditons and a
continued warming trend.

Heading into the end of next week, a few sites could see some
near record warm temperatures under the persistent ridging
pattern. Winds generally remain light through Thursday increasing
slightly Friday and into the next weekend as a response to a
disturbance moving past to the north increasing the pressure
gradients briefly.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for VFR conditions over
the next 24 hours under generally clear skies. Generally light
winds of 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry weather with a gradual warming trend Sunday
and Monday as high pressure builds over the region. Clear skies
through Sunday, becoming partly to mostly cloudy Monday. Light and
variable winds Sunday will become mainly westerly Monday but
remaining light.

Tuesday through Thursday...Generally clear and dry conditions with
light winds expected as high pressure continues to build. Daytime
temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal each day.






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