Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 PM MST Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity to much of northern Arizona
through Thursday. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the high terrain Friday and Saturday.


.UPDATE...It has been an active evening of showers and
thunderstorms over much of northern Arizona, continuing into the
late evening hours. Increasing moisture combined with a weak
disturbance have kept the activity going. Main threat is flooding
in localized areas, with a lower threat of hail. Updated forecasts
earlier for higher rain chances most areas.


.PREV DISCUSSION /322 PM MST/...Progs continue to show slight
cooling aloft on Thursday due to a low pressure system moving
through the Great basin. Still expecting primarily isolated
showers and tstorm coverage for most of the area, though the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains should see scattered

For Friday and the weekend, high pressure aloft to redevelop over
the desert southwest Friday and then become centered over Nevada
for the weekend. Friday should feature just a chance of an
afternoon storm over the high country. Cross sections indicate
low and mid level winds to become east-southeast with time late
Friday and bring a slow increase in moisture and instability.
Storm chances were added to areas along and south of I-40 on
Saturday. Drier northerly flow aloft on Sunday should limit storm
chances to the White Mountains.

Monday and Tuesday...Models continue to show Monsoon moisture
making a comeback, pushed northward by an increase in thunderstorm
activity over northwest Mexico. At this time the best chances
still look to be from the Mogollon Rim southward.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
most of northern Arizona through the 24 hr period. Scattered
thunderstorms expected near KFLG, KGCN, KINW and KPGA this evening
ending around 07z with MVFR/IFR conditions in the stronger storms.
Another round of scattered thunderstorms are forecast Thursday
afternoon that will affect the area terminal aerodromes. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will continue
to favor the Eastern Rim and White Mountains. For Thursday
afternoon, thunderstorm chances will spread west across the entire
Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau. Mainly dry conditions are
forecast over northern Arizona Friday, with thunderstorm chances
confined to the White Mountains.

Saturday through Monday...Afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to
remain confined to the White Mountains Saturday and Sunday, with
thunderstorm chances gradually increasing along the Mogollon Rim






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