Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 280334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
834 PM MST Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure moving through the Northern
Rockies brought breezy to windy and dry conditions to northern
Arizona today. Warm and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, with breezy afternoon


Clear skies continue as winds this evening are weakening from
their gusty levels earlier today. Another dry and breezy day is on
tap for Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...Much drier air moved over Arizona
today. Dewpoints were 15 to 32 degrees lower this afternoon than
they were yesterday afternoon. At 300 PM MST, relative humidity
values were: Prescott 2%, Grand Canyon and Flagstaff 4%, and Page
3%. A RFW has been issued for Coconino County from the Flagstaff
Area north and west late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.

Dry and stable westerly flow will continue through the end of the
week. A series of s/wvs moving through the northern Great Basin
will increase southwest winds Wednesday, decreasing Thursday and

A ridge will briefly amplify to our west Friday and Saturday. This
will bring a slight warming trend and bring even drier northwest
flow to the region. A s/wv will then flatten the ridge late in the
weekend and into early next week, increasing winds once again.
Limited moisture may move into the White Mountains over the
weekend for just a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in far
southern Apache County.

Long term models are indicating a monsoonal circulation developing
after the 4th of July, too early to tell, but fairly typical.


.AVIATION...For the 06z package...Expect generally light winds
overnight, then southwest winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts
30-35 kt after 18z Wed. Smoke from area wildfires may affect
flight paths. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwesterly winds and single digit
relative humidity values will result in another day of critical
fire weather for the Western Mogollon Rim and locations to the
north and west. Winds will lessen in intensity on Thursday. No
precipitation is expected over the next few days.

Friday through Sunday...Thunderstorm chances will remain low with
only a slight chance in the White Mountains on Sunday. Winds
speeds will be generally light on Friday with some increase over
the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal
through this period.


8 PM MST Wednesday FOR AZZ104-106-107-115.




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