Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Much colder temperatures are forecast for Thursday
behind a cold front moving through the area overnight. Gusty winds
are expected along the front, with a few light showers possible
north of Interstate 40. An unsettled pattern will develop late in
the weekend and early next week, with better chances for rain and


.DISCUSSION...Passage of a strong cold front overnight, followed
by much colder temperatures tomorrow, will be the main story over
the next 18-24 hours. Winds at 700 mb overnight ahead of the
front from the 18Z GFS are in the 40-60 kt range. Expect at least
a brief period of gustiness just ahead of the front, though if
the surface manages to de-couple gusts may be sporadic and mainly
just northeast of high terrain features.

Expect largely zonal flow from late Thursday through the early
part of the weekend with dry conditions and temperatures near to
slightly below average. Ensemble forecast systems have led us to
become more confident in a precipitation/winter weather event
occurring in the late weekend-early next week time frame.
Diagrams showing solutions from individual members indicate a fair
amount of agreement in the large-scale pattern from Sunday
through Tuesday, which brings a trough across northern Arizona the
axis of which crosses the state on Tuesday. Products from the
NAEFS ensemble mean show that there is increasing ensemble
agreement on high-end moisture transport through the Sunday-Monday
window as well as successive periods of precip accumulation from
Monday into Tuesday.

Currently, we expect a light precip event on Sunday with the
initial fast-moving short wave trough. A much greater proportion
of the precip would fall from Monday into Tuesday. There is still
some spread in the precise speed/depth of these features so it
will take some time to work out the details of precip/snow
amounts/snow levels, but early next week is certainly a time
period to keep an eye on.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest surface winds of 20-25 kts with
gusts 30-35 kts will continue into mid evening then generally weaken
to 5-20 kts. Localized gusts to 30 kts possible northeast of terrain
features. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004-006-007-




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