Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121103
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
403 AM MST SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD AND ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. STARTING
SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS ARE DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GPS PW VALUES INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR FLAGSTAFF PEAKED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
07/10 AND HAS FALLEN SINCE THEN...CURRENTLY SITING NEAR 0.75
INCHES. THIS DECREASE IN MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
WARMING...LED TO A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY EAST OF
FLAGSTAFF.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE HIGH CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH OF
ARIZONA CAUSING NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW CAPABLE OF PUSHING
STORMS THAT FROM ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY AND
THE LOWER DESERTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE
SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z...MAINLY EAST OF A KPAN-KINW-K0V7 LINE. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE VICINITY OF STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF A WINDOW ROCK TO
FLAGSTAFF LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WEST OF THIS
LINE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DRYING
TREND. ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE AGAIN PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH MODERATE
MONSOON ACTIVITY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD. LOOK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER
NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A
MODERATE GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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