Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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