Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 250202 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
702 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AS THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SW PHILLIPS COUNTY WAS SET TO EXPIRE
AT 02 Z TONIGHT...I SENT MY EVENING UPDATE OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THAT WARNING. AREA WINDS HAVE CALMED BELOW 20 MPH AND
SHOULD NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TONIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS. LOOKING FOR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THIS
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BEHIND CLEARING SKIES HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THAT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
LUFBOROUGH HILL REPORTED A GUST TO 58 MPH...BUT SINCE WINDS HAVE
NOT REMAINED AT THOSE LEVELS...DID NOT ISSUE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
THERE. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND
WARNING GOING FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AS MALTA SOUTH AS A
PRECAUTION. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS SOUTH OF
MALTA ON HIGHWAY 191 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL
MIXING GIVEN LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...DRIVING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE 850MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR ABOUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS COMPARED WITH
TODAY/S LEVELS. GIVEN THAT THE REGION EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES
POPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MANY PLACES
TODAY...TOMORROW COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING COOLER AS THEY HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER. ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT THIS COULD ACT TO INCREASE
CLOUDINESS...POSING A CHALLENGE FOR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT
WOULD ONLY TAKE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING
TO GET SOME PLACES UP OVER 50 DEGREES. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC FOR
NOW...BUT IF CLOUD COVER PREVAILS...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
SHAVE OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MONDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LATEST ECMWF RANGE FROM +7C TO
+17C ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST...BRINGING 500MB HEIGHTS TO 565-575
DECAMETERS...WILL SEE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...50S IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND 40S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED UPWARD FOR TUESDAY GIVEN MODEL FORECAST
850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY...RANGING FROM ABOUT +7C IN
THE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT +15C IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LITTLE SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT TIME...MOST PLACES SHOULD
EASILY SEE 50S AND 60S FOR SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN IF 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AS COMPARED WITH MONDAY.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MADE AGAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE. ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN BY THAT POINT...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN FAR
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BY SOUTHWARD
STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS WILL START A TREND OF
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH VERY WARM AIR POSITIONED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PRAIRIES ON WEDNESDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH MONTANA FOR A DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 10 DEGREES.
MODELS GENERALLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
CANADA.

BRIEF REBOUND OF THE RIDGE OCCURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE
PHASES WITH A STRONGER WAVE ROUNDING THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND
PULLING ARCTIC AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A LITTLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON
FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND: DAYTIME WIND NORTHWEST 15-25KT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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