Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 122131
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
231 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RADAR ECHOES
ARE ALREADY SPREADING EAST. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. AS MID LEVELS WARM...MORE MIXING
SHOULD OCCUR. FOLLOWED SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR MAINLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY PLAIN RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH ANYTHING LINGERING IN THE REGION.

GIVEN LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE MODELS DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN TO CREATE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CAREFULLY.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DEVELOPING WEST WINDS. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...WITH ONLY
ONE TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING. THAT CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ON
MONDAY GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH A WETTER
PERIOD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THIS FRONT
BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. GFS IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE DECENT MOISTURE. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD INTO TO THE WEEKEND. WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS TONIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR WITH SCT AREAS OF IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING.

WX: AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND: CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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