Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 250211
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
811 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun...
Going forecast appears to be in good shape.
Clouds will continue to thicken overnight and there could be a
sprinkle or a brief shower in the SW zones as a surface trough or
cold front moves through. Trough will keep things well mixed and
preclude any fog from forming while keeping temperatures up about
10 degrees over last night`s readings. TFJ
With the exception of one weak wave of low pressure Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night, the short term forecast period
looks to be rather un-eventful.
Sheridan County in our NE CWA corner has left-over standing water
in the Mid Muddy Creek floodplain and may lead to some patchy
overnight and morning fog, but it is not expected to be as thick
or as widespread as it was this morning. Next shift should keep an
eye on this, just in case.
This next weather disturbance will ride along a Pacific NW
trough, but will not have near enough moisture to make enough of
an impact for most of our CWA. Models are lining up a band of rain
showers with this system moving through our SE zones. Best
chances for accumulating rain showers would be near and south of
the Big Sheep Mountains.
Expect warm days and cool to cold nights.
.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...
Updates for the afternoon were minimal. Forecast builder was run
to cycle in the latest data; However, very few changes were made
on top of this. PoP grids on Tuesday/Tuesday night and
Thursday/Thursday night were increased beyond builder`s output
to better match up with neighbors. No other significant changes
were observed. GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
Progressive pattern for next week with a series of shortwave trofs
moving through the regions. Strongest energy with these systems
expected to push through the desert southwest but with enough
connection to the north portion of the trof to bring some
potential for showers into eastern Montana.
Monday is expected to be dry and warm with trof digging into the
Great Basin. This system moves across the Rockies on Tuesday for
slight cooling of temperatures and some showers possible.
Pattern repeats with dry weather on Wednesday followed by trof and
showers on Thursday. Models intensify the southern portion of the
trof as it closes off over the SW states. This will keep the
cooler and potentially wet weather over eastern Montana into
VFR and dry.
The upper ridge axis has moved off to the east today, with a
trough and mid-level clouds moving in. An embedded disturbance in
the southwest flow aloft will move northeast into Saskatchewan
tonight. An associated closed surface low there will cause winds
to back, the current southeasterly, winds around to the west by
Saturday morning, then northwesterly during the afternoon.
Tonight/Saturday morning: some overnight fog may develop again, but
it is expected to be east of the N Dakota / Montana state line.
Winds tonight from the southeast of 10-20kt will diminish to 10kt
or less before sunrise. Saturday afternoon winds will become
northwesterly at 20-25kt.