Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 281711 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1111 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.Updated avaition discussion below.

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Fri...
Morning Update: First off, those who have been calling and sending
pics to update us on the line storms over north Phillips and
Valley counties, thank you. We do apologize that are web based
point and click forecast were down for awhile. We send out
updates on the developing line of storms at around 730 am but did
not realize until a little after 8 am that our web based forecast
were down regionally.

Secondly: The forecast for today was updated to increase cloud
cover and the chances of showers and thunderstorms. More updates
for coming to mostly likely increase our chances for showers and
thunderstorms for this afternoon, so stay tuned for later updates.

Synopsis: The main upper low spinning over Alberta is sending a
weak weather disturbance across the forecast area today with a
line of showers and thunderstorms developing from near Opheim at
930 am back SW to Sleeping Buffalo at 930 am, with a new line
developing from just south of Glasgow to Jordan to Hillside in
Garfield county. More storms are expected in eastern sections
Daniels, Roosevelt, Sheridan, Richland, Dawson, Wibaux, Prairie,
and McCone counties.
Previous Discussion...Upper low spinning over Alberta will drop a
shortwave into the northern plains by Thursday night. Unsettled
cyclonic flow over the state should produce a few showers today. A
better chance for showers and even thunderstorms will occur on
Thursday as the shortwave drops through eastern Montana.

Temperatures will also dip about 10 degrees from Wednesday to
Thursday with the trof passage. Along with the cold air advection
expect some increased northwest winds, and will likely need a Lake
Wind Advisory for Thursday. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

The extended forecast period begins Thursday night with a
northwest flow pattern aloft and an upper level trough moving
through the region. This is expected to bring at least a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to portions of northeast Montana.
Temperatures associated with this should be a few degrees below
normal before the trough moves to the south and east by Friday
afternoon. Models vary some on precipitation amounts, but wetting
rains from this system do not seem too likely at this point.

Temperatures will begin to warm as a ridge briefly passes through
Saturday, but a shortwave disturbance quickly moves through
Saturday night and into Sunday, bringing a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms during this period.

A ridge is expected to develop over the region Monday, returning
warmer temperatures to northeast Montana. Beyond this, models
suggest that another upper level low moving across Canada will
bring a cold front through around middle to late next week, but
enough uncertainty exists that not much more can be said about
that at this point.




Synopsis: A subtle short-wave trough and a particular shear
profile has set off a line of thunderstorms this morning and
additional thunderstorms are possible as the day wears on.

Flight Conditions: Mainly VFR, but some VCTS could easily bring
brief MVFR conditions to the TAF sites if a stronger storm happens
to pass directly over head.

Winds: Generally around 10 to 15 kts with more erratic and gusty
winds near the stronger storms as they pass through the area





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