Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 091055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY THIN BY MIDDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BASIN REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY/S HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE ZERO DEG
C. HOWEVER...VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN COMPLEX SO THE TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS WITH THE
DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING/S MINIMUMS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH VALLEYS TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRONGEST INVERSIONS MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST ENDURES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DRIVE THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

THE FASTER AND MORE ENERGETIC ECMWF GENERATES LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
CONTINUES TO WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THIS AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
RUNS AND GENERATES JUST A SKIFF OF SNOW OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THEREAFTER. NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON
LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY NORTH...ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS. KCNY MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WHERE FOG HAS LOWERED VSBY TO IFR LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MIDMORNING. MEANWHILE...STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED
BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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