Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 031057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

RADAR EARLY SHOWING WEAK RETURNS SLIDING OVER MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY AS THESE RETURNS WEAKEN
WHILE TRACKING EASTWARD. OTHERWISE PRIMARY CONVECTION REMAINS WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST H850
WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEFORE
WEAKENING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH ALSO LIKELY BE AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE
SLIDING EASTWARD NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER. SOME OF THE MINNESOTA
CONVECTION MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START
OUT AND THEN SEE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES A REGION OF DRIER
AIR. INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST TODAY. STRONGER STORMS MORE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DUE TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM AND GFS RUNS ON SEPARATE RUNS
HAVE PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TYPE HIGHER QPF
NUMBERS ALONG THE FRONT...WILL IGNORE FOR NOW DUE TO INCONSISTENT
AND SUSPECT.

WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF HIGHER LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE BEFORE STALLING. PROGS SUGGEST PWATS
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.50 LATER THURSDAY DUE TO SOME POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. ALSO DO NOTE SURFACE CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1400 OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS.

FORECAST TEMPS TO BE NEARLY STEADY THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE THE
OFFSETTING OF WARM AIR RETURN BUT MORE CLOUDS. OFF COURSE A FEW
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME 80S OR LOW 80S WILL SHOW
UP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING CONTINUED TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS BEING NEEDED FOR
SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEM-NH HAD THE QPF
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF OR
00Z NAM. THE NAM HAD SOME HIGH QPF IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY
EVENING BUT IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT
WAS FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER
ABOUT A 12-HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY JUST HAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE OR NO EASILY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT
WAVE...HAVE IGNORED THIS NAM FEATURE. DECIDED ON JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE GFS AND
GEM DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THERE WERE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. THE EC PRETTY
MUCH WASHES IT OUT AS IT REACHES WISCONSIN BUT THE NAM/GFS/GEM
KEPT A STRONGER WAVE AND THE GEM HAD TWO SHORT WAVES PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HAVE IT MOVING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH MUCH LESS RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH.

UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISSUES WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO CREATE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SO THE BLENDED SOLUTION
WAS LEFT ALONE AND POPS CONTINUED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A DRY DAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COOL. HIGHS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MAY GET ABOVE NORMAL BUT THINGS LOOK RATHER MURKY
THAT FAR INTO THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. MAINLY MID
LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH



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