Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 300350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET.

PREV DISC...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AND SHOULD SLOW THEIR PRECIPITOUS DROP AND
DROP SLOWER THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EVENING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A WAA PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE S SO COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT MAY BRUSH NRN AREAS WITH SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
SAT NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST. USED A BLEND OF MODELS TO DEVELOP POP
FORECAST. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THUS THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WX LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT EXPECT SOME FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SAT NIGHT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP IN SCT SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR...WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT...SEAS ARE RUNNING
2-4 FT ATTM WITH LONG PERIOD DEEP WATER SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. BY SAT NIGHT SEAS WILL BE INCREASING DUE
TO AN INCREASING SLY FLOW AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. LOW PROB OF SCA CONDITIONS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES


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