Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 280535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM
HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...SNOW HAS STARTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF SO THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
WILL BE DROPPED AS OF NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH OTHER WINTER
HEADLINES THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES.

PREV DISC...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES


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