Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
946 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

High pressure will remain off the east coast tonight and Thursday
as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will
slowly cross the region Thursday night and Friday. High pressure
will build in from the west Friday night and Saturday. High
pressure will shift off to the east on Sunday as a cold front
moves in from the west. The front will cross the region sunday
night followed by high pressure on Monday.


945 pm update...variable high clouds will continue this evening
across the region. Have adjusted forecast for current conditions
and lowered PoPs a bit for Thursday night based on latest model

High pressure off the New England coast will gradually shift east
overnight. Just looking for variable high clouds overnight as a
slow moving cold front approaches from the west. Low temps
overnight will range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.


Clouds will thicken over the region on Thursday as a pre-frontal
trough approaches from the west. Have gone with low chance pops
for northern and western zones Thursday afternoon but any activity
will likely be light and spotty. Best instability generally
remains west of the forecast area during the day but can`t rule
out a stray thunderstorm in far northwest zones by late in the
day. Highs on Thursday will range through the 80s.

Cold front will push into the region after midnight Thursday
night. Expect scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms
overnight. Lows across the region will range from the mid 60s
north to the lower 70s south.


The upper level flow will shift from zonal to slight ridging over
the weekend. This will bring a weak few short waves through the
region, the first of which will drive a cold front through
New England. The front should move offshore by early
afternoon...and while some thunderstorms are possible...timing of
the front and antecedent cloud cover should keep them to a

PW values top out around 2" during this time which is about 200%
of normal. The moisture stream will be mostly tropical in nature
along with some modified Pacific moisture. The NAM has much
higher QPF than either the CMC,GFS or Euro. It does not appear to
be having trouble with convective feedback...but amounts over an
inch don`t look especially favorable given the forcing.

The weekend will be warm and dry. Sunday night into Monday night a
frontal system will shift east-southeast as another, deeper
trough moves through. This trough will serve to push mid level
ridging south back towards Bermuda as a cold front pushes through
Monday night. Like the previous frontal passage this will have
little impact on temperatures but may bring scattered showers and

Gaston is expected to remain east of Bermuda through early
next week. So far models are keeping it wrapped up and tracking
along the remnants of the front that will affect our area Monday
(see above). The Bermuda high will also arrest its movement.


Short Term...VFR tonight through Thursday. Areas of MVFR/IFR
ceilings and vsby developing Thursday night.

Long Term...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
early on Friday as a cold front moves through the area. This could
bring MVFR conditions at times, especially in the mountains. VFR
conditions dominate through the weekend although this time of year
early morning fog is almost always a possibility at Whitefield
and Lebanon. Another frontal passage will cross the region on
Monday with scattered showers creating periodic MVFR conditions.


Short Term...Winds will approach sca levels on Thursday but will
be letting the midnight shift make the final decision on where and

Long Term...Borderline advisory level wind gusts possible through
early Friday ahead of the cold front mainly over the outer waters.
Once the front moves through there could be a brief period of
gusty winds out of the northwest but in general wind speeds should
be diminishing. Waves should remain in the 3-5 ft range. High
pressure over the Gulf of Maine brings light winds and calming
seas through the weekend.




NEAR TERM...Jensenius
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