Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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659
FXUS61 KGYX 071057
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
557 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS
OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BEST ASCENT.

THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA.

AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT
OF A TOUGH TASK.

MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MON PM ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH
IN -SN.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY
EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE
LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



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