Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 231838
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. WATER VAPOR AND GOES INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW
BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM AND ONSHORE INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AND NOT THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE
FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR
STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER
DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST
IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND
FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR
KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY
BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  BRISK WNW WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS
RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO
FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES/JC



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