Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXHW60 PHFO 020155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISRUPTS THE FLOW. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E REACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO...BUT ANTICIPATING A WET
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E. MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND MOLOKAI...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. A FEW WINDWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S...BUT THE BREEZES
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE BEARABLE.

MODELS SHOW WINDS WEAKENING ACROSS HAWAII MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS HURRICANE GUILLERMO BEGINS TO DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND RAIN. THESE EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUILLERMO REACHES OR PASSES
NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO
KEEP IN MIND THAT THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE ISSUED.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
BUILDING BACK OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
08E CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST. AIRMET
SIERRA REMAINS POSTED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAUI AND MOLOKAI.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND WEST OF
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF ALL ISLANDS DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT OVER THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM HST
SUNDAY. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACCELERATING
THROUGH THE ISLAND TERRAIN. THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN.

HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS
COMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS
FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

THAT BEING SAID...SWELL GENERATED FROM GUILLERMO IS AIMED TOWARDS
HAWAII FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATING FORERUNNERS FROM THIS
SWELL TO REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SWELL WILL BUILD SURF HEIGHTS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS GUILLERMO REACHES OR
PASSES BY HAWAII. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR EAST
FACING SHORES BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.