Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 240622
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
822 PM HST Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the State will keep a moderate to breezy
trade wind flow in place through the remainder of the work week.
The trades will then ease over the weekend and into early next
week as the ridge of high pressure north of the State weakens.
Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the
period, with a stray shower spilling into leeward locales from
time to time. An increase in trade wind showers and a return of
muggy conditions is possible early next week as tropical moisture
lifts northward into the area from the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high centered around 1300
miles north of Honolulu, is driving moderate to breezy trade winds
across the island chain this evening. Infrared satellite imagery
shows partly cloudy skies in most areas, with some pockets of
enhanced cloud cover scattered across the islands. Radar imagery
shows scattered light showers drifting into windward areas, with a
stray shower spilling over into leeward areas from time to time.
Main short term concern over the next couple days revolves around
rain chances.

High pressure north of the State will keep moderate to breezy
trade winds in place through Friday. The trades will then trend
down over the weekend, as high pressure weakens in response to a
front passing by well north of the islands. The trades will then
ramp back up to moderate and locally breezy levels once again by
the middle of next week.

Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through the
period, with a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to
time. The trade showers may increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday through early next week, particularly across the eastern
islands, as tropical moisture works into the area from the
southeast. Muggy conditions will likely return to the island chain
Sunday through early next week as well, with both the GFS and
ECMWF showing dewpoints climbing back into the lower to middle
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
A breezy and relatively dry trade wind weather pattern is
expected through Thursday, with VFR conditions prevailing
statewide. Stable and showery low clouds moving in from the ENE
will provide brief periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA over windward
slopes and coasts, potentially affecting terminals in Lihue and
Hilo. AIRMET TANGO will remain posted for mechanical turbulence
near and downwind of the mountains.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure passing north of the state has led to a
strengthening of the trade winds, with small craft advisory
conditions expanding beyond the typically windier channels and
the area south of the Big Island. New areas now include all zones
around Maui County and Oahu leeward waters. Winds will start to
decrease late in the work week, with a greater decrease through
early next week as the ridge shifts southward toward the state.

The strengthening trade winds will also lead to choppy surf along
east facing shores. In addition, smaller, longer-period energy
from a weakening Kenneth far to the east of the islands may be
around through Thursday. South facing shores may see a bump this
weekend as portions of a Tasman swell reach the islands.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Oahu Leeward
Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County
Leeward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Morrison
MARINE...Kinel


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