Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 271954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT MAY
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY THE ISLANDS IS ACCELERATING WINDS
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SUMMIT TO WARNING LEVELS. THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATE NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS... A WEAK SHOWER BAND NOW OVER MOLOKAI
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRIEF SHOWERS TO WEST AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF MAUI COUNTY. WINDS
BEHIND THE BAND ARE LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLIES WITH COOL AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS OVER KAUAI ARE IN THE MID 50/S WHILE OAHU
DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 60/S. WEAKENING NORTH
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60/S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE 50/S IN SOME SHELTERED AREAS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE EAST PACIFIC
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
MAJORITY FALLING OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING TERRAIN...WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN WINDS MONDAY WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE EAST WINDS TURNING WESTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY
WEDNESDAY. LIMITED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY
OF RAIN AND CLOUDS FALLING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICTING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERING THE AREA
FRIDAY FROM THE EAST... AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION WITH BOTH FORMING
A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING MODERATE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. BUT AS USUAL... LONG TERM
FORECASTS OF THIS NATURE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS BOUNCE
FROM ONE FORECAST TO THE NEXT. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHERLY AS A WEAK SHOWER BAND CURRENTLY OVER MOLOKAI MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOL -SHRA AND MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE BAND...MAINLY ACROSS NW AND N FACING TERRAIN. VERY
STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BAND...CREATING
ONLY VFR CIGS ALONG N FACING TERRAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. VFR
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY. A SHORT-PERIOD
NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...AND DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. A
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SURF TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
WROE...AVIATION






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