Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  89  73  86 /  70  50  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  89  74  87 /  70  50  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  77  86  79  84 /  60  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$


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