Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS MORNING. EVENING SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO WEST TEXAS...
LEAVING THE REGION UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 05Z REVEALED A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO... WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-
SOUTH PROMOTING LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THIS HAPPENS. OTHERWISE... HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH
DRIER AIR MAINTAINING ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION /FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.25 RANGE/.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY UNDER 105 DEGREES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID
90S TO NEAR 100. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESUME TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF REGAINS CONTROL...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN. THIS WILL ALSO BUMP UP LOWS MONDAY
MORNING A DEGREE OR TWO /70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST/.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES /10-20 POPS/ FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 AND
THE COASTAL WATERS... WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST.
GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND A POSSIBLE SHOT AT
RAIN/ OUT OF COLORADO AND TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME... BUT GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE HOLDING OFF ON ADDING RAIN CHANCES FOR
NOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THE FIRST... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA.. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK... A CUTOFF LOW
CHURNING ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING
WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. THE MOVEMENT OF BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD FARTHER EAST...
FURTHER SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES AND CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE NEAR LBX. AFTER THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SPREADS BACK INTO
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY EXPECTING A FEW OTHER SITES TO EXPERIENCE SOME
BRIEF LIGHT FOG CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING.
45

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AHEAD...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
OUT BEYOND 60NM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
SLIDE BACK NORTH WHILE MODIFYING WHICH ENDS THIS PLEASANT SPELL OF
DRY AIR OVER THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND 10-15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL BECOME THE NORM TUE-FRI...BAYS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5-10 AND 10-15. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL BE A FIXTURE THIS WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING AS ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS MON-
TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  73  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  74  97  78  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            94  81  91  82  91 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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