Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 300452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Could see some MVFR ceilings and patchy fog develop overnight.
Still think that some spots will see MVFR ceilings to form after
sunrise and then gradually become VFR around midday. Went ahead
and added VCSH to most of the TAFs for tomorrow afternoon and on
into tomorrow evening.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

Not many changes were made to the previous forecast. A coastal
trough offshore has been the focus of showers and thunderstorms
over the Gulf this evening, and this is expected to gradually
shift eastward tonight. A shower or stray thunderstorm or two may
be able to pop up inland overnight (as demonstrated across the
Hill Country currently), so left PoPs at 20% across inland areas
for now. Otherwise, patchy fog may develop across inland areas
tonight but should burn off just after sunrise. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

Stable conditions in the wake of the late night and early morning
storms have kept things mostly dry today. We are seeing a few
breaks in the clouds so still think there`s an opportunity for some
isolated activity in the next few hours. Other than some patchy
3-5nm late night fog, think things should remain mostly quiet in
the overnight hours. Further offshore, based on latest obs from
buoys & rigs it looks like a weak coastal trof has set up 20-40nm
offshore. This may be the focus for some sct storms again toward

Lower PW`s and a lack of overall forcing should allow for a little
bit less precip coverage on Tue than earlier thinking. Believe
there should still be some sct diurnally driven shra/tstms, but
did reduce pops a touch. As the coastal trof washes out on Wed,
guidance suggests another surge of deeper Gulf moisture moves up
the coast and back inland. We`ll be keeping a closer eye on things
late Wed night and Thurs as a stronger upper impulse is forecast
to move overhead. Favorable jet structure may be in place at that
time as well so will need to evaluate potential for some stronger
cells and/or heavier rain. (Don`t see a surface focus in place,
which is good).

Decent chances of precip, again mainly diurnal in nature,
continue Fri & Sat. The 40% placeholders in place for now look
pretty good. Might need to bump them up on Sunday if models
remain in agreement with an approaching upper trof and another
weak front sagging into the area. 47

Winds have diminished greatly this afternoon across the marine
areas. Easterly winds should develop tonight but then become more
southeasterly later on Tuesday afternoon or evening. Moderate
onshore conditions are expected to develop on Thursday and Friday.

The fairly high tide levels that occurred earlier today have slowly
diminished through the first half of the afternoon. Expect these to
continue subsiding to near normal tonight and Tuesday.


College Station (CLL)      68  85  70  86  70 /  20  20  10  30  50
Houston (IAH)              70  85  71  86  72 /  20  30  10  40  50
Galveston (GLS)            76  82  77  84  78 /  20  30  20  30  50




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