Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 201145
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK WIND FIELD IS ALL
THAT HAS BEEN NEEDED IN ALLOWING RADIATIVE FOG TO DEVELOP. DESPITE
TODAY`S MID TO HIGH OVERCAST...AFTER ANOTHER DAY ONSHORE WINDS...
FOG APPEARS TO AGAIN BE THE MONDAY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE.
MODEL PROFILES ARE DEPICTING AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT WITH NEAR-SURFACE
SATURATION INDICATING THAT FOG WILL RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG (SOME DENSE) IS FOUND ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED. ONCE FOG LIFTS AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT TO SEE A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO REMAINING
OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD HELP TO
FINALLY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING A TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE CARRYING NO MORE THAN 20-30%
POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 30% ON MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. SPC`S DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (FOR MONDAY)
DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND FOR NOW
AGREE WITH KEEPING ANY SEVERE RISK OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ANTICIPATE A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FOR
THE MIDDLE THROUGH END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICITS THROUGH APRIL 19TH
ARE... CLL - 5.78 INCHES IAH - 4.59 INCHES HOU - 5.77 INCHES GLS -
7.03 INCHES

42

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK INLAND
BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND VEER WINDS MORE WEST. A TIGHTENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MID TO LATE WEEK SOUTHERLIES TO BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  61  81  63  84 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  62  81  64  84 /  10  20  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  66  77  67  77 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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