Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 301001
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
301 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA. SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM WHAT REMAINS OF HURRICANE MARIE.
THE MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED IN BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT HIGH
DENSITY WINDS AT THE 250MB LEVEL SHOW SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS AS A
JET DROPS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT MODERATE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS THE DISTRICT REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A PLUS
100KT JET. AT THE SURFACE...WHILE SUSTAINED WIND WILL REMAIN AT
THE BREEZY LEVEL WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...THE
NORMALLY WINDY LOCATIONS AROUND MOUNTAIN GAPS WILL SEE WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY...THE MARINE LAYER AS SEEN ON THE FORT
ORD PROFILER WAS STILL AT 1500 FEET MSL. 24 HOUR CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WAS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE. YET...SYNOPTIC COOLING
FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DISTRICT TO
SLOWLY COOL THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
DISTRICT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK WITH ONLY CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIP THIS WEEKEND SOUTH OF YOSEMITE. MODELS PROG HEIGHTS TO
START RISING ON MONDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE...ANY COOLING THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND REMAIN IN
A STEADY STATE WITH VALUES RANGING AROUND THE MID 90S. TOWARD MID
WEEK...MODELS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BC CANADA.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO FELL THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS SECOND TROUGH...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP OVER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. YET...THE TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP DURING THE SAME
PERIOD. WHILE CERTAINTY DROPS TOWARD THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SHOW A VERY WEAK LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND
FLOW TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE. AGAIN WITH HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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