Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 272357 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
457 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017


.SYNOPSIS...A strong upper level ridge of high pressure
over the Four Corners region will build into California
during the next several days and bring generally dry
weather and above normal temperatures to the district.
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
near the Sierra crest through Saturday and could include the
rest of the mountains and desert Sunday through next week.

.DISCUSSION...Weatherwise, today is a rather typical Summer day
across the state. Low stratus is hugging the coast while sunny
skies rule the California interior. There are some cumulus
buildups over the high Sierra this afternoon and although a few of
them could grow into thunderstorms near the Sierra crest, they`ll
diminish shortly after sunset. Little change is foreseen in this
pattern through Saturday while California sits between a weak
upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and a strong
high pressure ridge over the Four Corners region. During this
time, a prevailing dry southwesterly flow aloft will reside over
the Golden State.

The models forecast retrogression of the Four Corners ridge
Sunday through the early part of next week and place the
center of this high right over California. Although monsoonal
moisture could accompany the westward migration of this high
pressure ridge, the models so far are not forecasting a
substantial northwestward influx of mid level moisture into
central California later this weekend into early next week.
Nonetheless, some moisture, albeit shallow, could find its way up
here from westward moving tropical waves in Mexico early next
week. If so, thunderstorms will be rather isolated, high based,
and generally confined to the mountains and desert.

Otherwise, temperatures will average slightly to much above
normal for the next week or so. That means there will be several
more days of triple digit heat in the San Joaquin Valley, lower
foothills and the Kern county desert. If the GFS solution is
right, our hottest weather during the next 7 days will occur
Wednesday and again next Thursday. Afternoon temperatures those
particular days could peak as high as 108 degrees in the San
Joaquin Valley and 111 degrees in the Kern county desert. Of side
interest is Hurricane Hilary and Tropical Storm Irwin centered
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja.
According to the latest forecast from the NHC, the paths of Hilary
and Irwin could come very close to each other later this weekend.


Areas of MVFR visibilities in smoke from the Detwiler wildfire near
Mariposa County. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms or rain showers
possible near the crest of the Sierra Nevada through 06z Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior during the next 24 hours.


.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Friday July 28 2017... Unhealthy for
sensitive groups in Fresno and Kern Counties and Sequoia National
Park and Forest. Additionally...please see the SFOAQAHNX for an
Air Quality Alert. Further information is available at



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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