Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 252032
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
132 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH REDUCED P-GRADS HAVE PROVIDED OUR
AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-7 DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWFA. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA. MEANWHILE A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING PROVIDING
THE SAN DIEGO AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE ONLY IMPACT NOTICED OVER OUR AREA HAS BEEN THE
PRESENCE OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN HELD IN
CHECK TO OUR SOUTH BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

12Z WRF INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN ON
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DEW POINT PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY/S READING WITH WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BEING FELT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL CA WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING THE INCREASED
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE
BETWEEN -2 AND 2 DEG C ON SUNDAY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHILE CAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE
PROGGED TO NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ON SUNDAY. WRF INDICATING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL IMPACT
OUR AREA ON MONDAY...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING PARKED
OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.
RH PROGS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA OTHERWISE OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO APPROACH TO COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON FRIDAY JULY 25 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-25      113:2006     76:1913     82:2006     56:1889
KFAT 07-26      113:1931     84:1965     80:1931     56:1955
KFAT 07-27      114:1933     83:1941     79:1933     52:1897

KBFL 07-25      116:1931     84:1984     84:2006     50:1913
KBFL 07-26      117:1931     84:1965     83:1974     55:1903
KBFL 07-27      117:1933     85:1965     83:1980     52:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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