Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 292310
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
410 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






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