Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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