Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FXUS66 KHNX 072124
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF WESTSIDE AND
SIERRA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAINLY IN
THE SIERRA ALL DAY THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX CROSSING THE REGION ATTM WITH BEST PVA OVER
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SIERRA AND NVA ACROSS OUR SIDE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA.

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENCAL COAST ATTM. THE LOW
IS PROJECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENCAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NE LATE THURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE H500 TEMPS ARE
ONLY AROUND -14C WHICH IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND ARE NOT THINKING THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH THE
SYSTEM. BEST INSTABILITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW CENTER WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASE SFC PGRADS AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE PACHECO AND COTTONWOOD PASSES ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS GOING GUSTS TO 50 MPH TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES IN. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED.

VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCING DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE WILL BE WRUNG OUT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
WILL MONITOR FOR BURN SCARS FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECT WETTING
RAINS ACROSS THE YOSEMITE AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARKS ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD CORE COMING ACROSS WE COULD EVEN SEE SNOW ABOVE 11K
FEET.

THE LOW KICKS NE AS A BAGGY TROUGH HANGS OFF THE COAST AND KEEPS
TEMPS BELOW OR AROUND NORMAL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS SLOW TO RETROGRADE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AFTER
16Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-07      111:1905     84:1891     76:2014     53:1903
KFAT 07-08      115:1905     84:1983     81:1896     51:1891
KFAT 07-09      113:1905     78:1936     81:2008     55:1983

KBFL 07-07      114:1905     85:1983     81:1968     46:1903
KBFL 07-08      114:1905     85:1983     79:1907     50:1899
KBFL 07-09      113:1905     83:1980     84:2008     52:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.