Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 221035
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
335 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS
EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MAY OCCUR LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC STORM ENTERS THE REGION WITH COOLING AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...IS SHOWING
THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THIS POINT...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FROM ODILE...WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
DISTRICT WILL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WHILE NOT
COMPLETELY OVER THE RIDGE PATTERN...THE DISTRICT WILL BE UNDER A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN WILL TO PROVIDE FOR SOME WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...BUT
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 90S AND NOT NEAR THE 100 DEG-F MARK.
THEREFORE...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE DISTRICT
WITH SOME WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER AS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH FINALLY AFFECTS THE WEST COAST.
WHILE MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH...MODEL CERTAINTY IS HIGHER ON THE TROUGH STRENGTH.
THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT THE WEATHER TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDY PATTERN AS THE STORM DROPS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK. MODELS PROG THE STORM/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON LATE
WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE DISTRICT NEAR THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO
COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATER
THIS WEEK DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY.

AGAIN...TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS FAR SOUTH OF
THE STORM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. YET...WILL BEGIN TO MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA STARTING ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS...IT
MAY PREVENT THE DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA...FROM
RECEIVING PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE CONFINE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO
THE SIERRA NEVADA DURING STORM PASSAGE. BY MONDAY...THE STORM
EXITS THE REGION FOR THE START OF ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-22      104:1949     67:1923     72:1999     41:1968
KFAT 09-23      105:1949     66:1904     70:2011     47:1968
KFAT 09-24      102:1899     62:1904     73:1939     46:1945

KBFL 09-22      105:2003     70:1923     74:1949     40:1908
KBFL 09-23      107:1943     71:1986     72:1949     31:1903
KBFL 09-24      103:1919     72:1920     74:2009     35:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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