Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 070002
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
402 PM PST Tue Dec 6 2016
Cool conditions continue, with patchy fog and frost across the
San Joaquin Valley through Wednesday morning. A low pressure
system will spread precipitation into the area with a chance of
rain and mountain snow Wednesday night into Friday. An unsettled
pattern continues through the weekend with another chance of
precipitation north of Fresno early next week.
Areas of fog in the San Joaquin Valley this morning have lifted
into a persistent stratus deck over much of the area and banked
up across the adjacent higher terrain. This has been gradually
clearing from the north and west today, still lingering along the
east side and foothills. Short range hi-res models indicate some
of these clouds will persist through morning. Additional high
cloudiness in the fast northwest flow aloft are progged to brush
the area overnight and this is expected to limit the development
of fog in the San Joaquin Valley as well as limit the extent of
freezing temperatures there. The forecast for tonight calls for
just patchy fog and frost in the Valley.
Models generally agree on a decent moisture fetch steering into
central California by Wednesday. GEFS reforecast data suggests
good likelihood of precipitation reaching as far south as Fresno
County by Wednesday night with this initial moisture push. Cold
air in place will start snow levels around 4500 feet in the Sierra
Wednesday night but they will quickly rise to above 8000 feet as
the relatively warm and moist air pushes in from the west.
Models keep our region in a generally zonal type flow, between
the ridge over the Pacific and shortwave impulses tracking into
the west coast mainly to our north. This will keep a fairly
unsettled pattern in place for us into early next week. The timing
and placement of the impulses and trajectory of the best moisture
surges is still uncertain but we can look for precipitation
chances north of Kern County through the end of this week. Slight
chances for precipitation will reach into Kern County outside the
desert areas by the start of the weekend. Current timing calls for
a bit of a break by the start of next week, but another wave is
expected to impact the area Tuesday. Details on timing and precip
amounts will be refined with further model runs.
Across the San Joaquin Valley, widespread MVFR in haze, then
becoming widespread IFR in mist by 06Z Wed with local LIFR in fog
after 09Z Wed. Becoming mainly MVFR in haze between 18Z and 20Z Wed
with areas of VFR. Local wind gusts above 35 KTS in the Kern County
Mountains and Deserts thru 12Z Wed. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be
expected elsewhere across the central CA interior during the next 24
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday December 7 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern...
Kings... Madera and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.