Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 062215
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 0.9" AND SLOW MOVING STORMS IS BRINGING AN INCREASED
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME AREAS FROM STORMS
YESTERDAY HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
WEST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 11 PM PDT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING AND MAINLY JUST SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
IN THE SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW BROADENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR MORE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY PROGS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR T-STORMS
ON SAT BUT THEY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE LOW FINALLY SHIFTS INLAND
OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN.
HOWEVER...SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MIDWEEK
BUT HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. A DRY FORECAST REMAINS FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THIS WEEKEND BUT WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. FURTHER WARMING ON
WEDNESDAY HAS SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 06Z
SAT AND AFTER 18Z SAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
CAZ089-091-092-095.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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