Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 031038
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
238 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 5,500 FEET LATE
THIS MORNING AND LIFT TO AROUND 6,000 FEET LATER THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AS
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IMPACTS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...SIMILAR TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF MARCH.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
AND A WARMING TREND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID
70S...A LITTLE OVER 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH.

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH MORNING FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THAT THE REGION RECEIVED RAIN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THE FORMATION OF FOG EACH MORNING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
(HIGHER SUN ANGLE...LONGER DAYS...AND WARM AFTERNOONS.)

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE AS NCEPS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
IS INDICATING VERY LOW PROBABILITY ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY
DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS...LOCAL IFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THRU 06Z WED. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR IN MIST THRU 18Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-03       80:1994     45:1976     55:1905     26:1966
KFAT 03-04       84:1929     49:1951     55:1991     30:1966
KFAT 03-05       84:1929     46:1981     57:1890     31:1971

KBFL 03-03       84:1987     47:1976     55:1930     20:1917
KBFL 03-04       88:1929     50:1919     64:1987     28:1907
KBFL 03-05       86:1929     50:1981     58:1975     30:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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