Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 201105
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
605 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week.
High pressure will slowly build across the area through Tuesday,
shifting offshore Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring
increased cloudiness and some showers mid week. Near record warmth
will come Friday and Saturday with increasing chance of showers
ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday.
Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front
Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Dry and unseasonably mild weather will
continue through the near term as an elongated ridge centered
well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region with high
pressure building in aloft. A dry column means ample sun today.
Model soundings do indicate some increase in cirrus overnight
as the upper ridge axis moves east across the forecast area. A
blend of guidance brings us highs in the lower to mid 70s today
for most places with 60s at the beaches. Overnight lows mainly
in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Expect increasing cloudiness from Tuesday
afternoon onwards with the chances for showers increasing from
the west in the early morning hours of Wednesday as an upper
trough approaches and then moves across the eastern seaboard.
Increasing cloud cover will help keep daytime temperatures on
Tuesday a few degrees cooler than Monday. Approaching upper
trough will only be reflected as a weak trough at the surface,
but a substantial increase in deep layer moisture and adequate
isentropic lift associated with the upper trough makes at least
slight chance to low chance pops seem plausible well into
Wednesday. Paltry dynamics means QPF will be kept on the minimal
side. A weak WAA regime will develop on Wednesday, which should
allow a bump in temperatures from Tuesday`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A deeper southerly return flow will
develop around Atlantic high pressure as shortwave exits off the
Southeast coast on Thursday. A very warm and moist air mass will
be in place Thurs through Saturday. Dewpoint temps will increase
to near 60 ahead of an approaching cold front late Fri into
Saturday. Temperatures will reach near record warmth Fri and
Saturday with readings up near 80. This will produce a fairly
healthy sea breeze each afternoon and should see cu development
and possible convection in this warm and moist air mass. The
best chc of showers will come ahead of cold front as it approaches
and moves through Fri night into Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF
keep best shortwave energy with this system much farther north
with actually show limited if any convection over the Carolinas
with the cold front. The actual FROPA should take place later
on Saturday.

A complete change of air mass will take place as cooler and
drier air advects in behind cold front Sat night into Sunday.
Pcp water values up to 1.25 inches ahead of cold front will drop
down around a quarter of an inch by Sun morning in a deep W-NW
flow as high pressure builds in. Temperatures cool off into the
mid 60s for Sunday which is still a few degrees above normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR conditions this TAF cycle, as dry high pressure
along the East Coast, centered over the NE states, drifts
eastward. This will produce veering winds this morning from NNW
to NE as the high axis moves near the coast. Mostly cirrus
expected this TAF period AOA 20KFT. No restrictions to
visibility expected overnight.

Extended Outlook...Isolated showers late Wednesday through Thursday,
but primarily VFR to prevail. Patchy fog possible late Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure overhead will keep winds
light and from the NE at 10 to 15 kts today with seas of only
around 2 ft for most places, with 3 footers present well
offshore. Winds will turn to the E

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure over the waters will
keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period. Seas
will remain right around 2 ft for both days.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A deep return flow will develop Thursday
into Friday generally remaining 10 kts or less. A very warm air
mass in place will generate a healthy sea breeze each afternoon.
Therefore expect winds to back a little each afternoon and
spike up. The ECMWF shows a trough extending up from the low
pressure over Florida on Thursday and actually tracks the low up
toward Hatteras through Friday. This may affect our local winds
but for now will keep with a southerly flow. The light but
persistent southerly flow gradually increases seas through the
period from less than 3 ft Thurs morning up to around 4 ft by
late Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC



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