Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 300134
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
934 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity
to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down
beginning Sunday. A cold front will drop slowly across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing good chances for thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will follow for the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM Friday...A couple small clusters of showers and a
few thunderstorms continue across portions of our inland areas at
mid eve. At one point earlier, one cell in Dillon County was
producing continuous cloud to ground lightning. However, the
thunderstorms have weakened considerably since about 9 pm.

This activity is in association with the inland trough and ahead
of a weak mid- level shortwave. The high resolution HRRR model
continues to show the slow decay of this activity as it nears the
coast. Perhaps a few showers will make it to the Cape Fear coast
and Grand Strand overnight. We have adjusted POPs accordingly.

It will be another warm night with temps not expected to drop
below 80 in many areas until after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The heat indices will kick back up above
advisory levels once again on Saturday. It appears the atlantic ridge
may push back toward the northwest a bit with heights rising a
bit and 850 temps up a couple of degrees, mainly eastern two
thirds of area. Temps should reach the mid 90s for highs.
Therefore we will once again issue heat advisories mainly I-95
corridor east where dewpoint temps will increase as aftn sea
breeze draws atlantic moisture inland. The main focus for
convection will be along Piedmont trough and along sea breeze
boundary. The overall chance for convection will increase and may
decrease the overall length of heat advisory, but for now, have
issued it from noon to 8 pm. some needed rain and may temper some
of the heat.

By Sunday, Atlantic ridge gets pushed south and east a little
farther as mid to upper trough makes a little headway east. The
fight between the ridge and trough will be tricky in delineating
the area of greater convective potential. Overall expect moisture
to increase through the atmosphere and greater potential for
convection mainly along Piedmont trough inland and sea breeze
boundary. This should also keep temps from reaching heat advisory
criteria with greater amount of clouds and shwrs/tstms. Temps
should reach into the low to mid 90s on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Significant airmass change occurs...finally as
the calendar flips to August. The tremendous heat and humidity
through which we have been suffering will persist one last day
Monday with highs in the 90s and high humidity once again, but a
return to seasonable or even slightly below normal temps is forecast
by mid week. The cause of this change is a sharp mid-level trough
driving a cold front through the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday.
Guidance is in agreement this front will slow across the area, but
eventually will sink south of the region on Wednesday as the upper
ridge breaks down. Guidance can frequently be too aggressive and
quick with the breakdown of these ridges, so will lean on the slower
solution and dissipate the front Wednesday just south of the area to
blend with inherited, but much cooler temperatures are forecast
Tue/Wed/Thu with a slow return to warmer temperatures possible late
in the period. Along with these cooler temperatures, tstms should
become more numerous Monday night through Wednesday associated with
the fropa, decreasing back to seasonable POP at the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Still quite the dry atmosphere across the region.
Latest KLTX 88D showed a few echoes with decent return move across
FLO during the past 45 minutes...with ASOS indicating ts with
light pcpn via the 10sm vsby. Will indicate VCTS for LBT and
possibly CRE and/or MYR depending on the strength of this activity
at press time. The sea breeze may provide a brief flare-up when
this activity encounters it during the next 1 to 2 hrs but should
die out quickly there-after. The remainder of the night will see
winds drop to aob 3 kt due to the lack of a low level jet which
has been a mainstay for the past 4 nights. Even the coastal
terminals will see winds drop to 5 kt or less overnight. This may
bring up the possibility of fog. For now, will leave fog out, but
will watch the local terminals for any rain occurrence. For
daytime Saturday, instability will increase by midday and the FA
will be under a weak or non-existent convective lid. As a result,
convection may begin firing up by mid-afternoon and continue well
into the evening. At this point, placed a PROB30 group for all
terminals to identify this possibility.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise...expect VFR at all other times.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Friday...No apparent nocturnal jetting expected
tonight. Southwest breezes have weakened considerably from earlier
in the eve as the temp differential between land and water has
relaxed with the land cooling 10 to 15 degrees from the highs of
the day. Sustained SW winds will be on the order of 10 to 15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt late eve and overnight. Seas will be 2 to 4
ft.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will
continue to be main players with a SW wind 10 to 15 knots through
much of the period. As mid to upper trough pushes a cold front
into North Carolina Sun night the gradient should tighten and
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will remain 2 to 4
feet through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda high pressure remains dominant one
last day Monday before a mid- level trough drives a slow moving
cold front across the waters through mid-week. This causes a wind
shift, so after 10-15 kts of SW winds on Monday, the gradient
becomes diffuse as the front drops south and weakens, with winds
gradually becoming NE at 5-10 kts by Wednesday. Highest seas will
be Monday with the SE swell and SW wind wave producing 3-4 ft
seas. Wave heights will fall slowly Tuesday, and then down to 2-3
ft Wednesday with a confused spectrum likely as a NE wind wave
develops atop the residual SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ032-033-
     039-053>056.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ099-
     105>110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



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