Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 051927
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHILE
SOME DRIER AIR WILL MAKE THEM MORE SPARSE ON TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY AS
WELL AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&


.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS WE DO HAVE A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
AND STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SPC CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST RISK BEING FROM DAMAGING
WINDS. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP THAT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AN UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...IMPINGING UPON THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WILL BE KEEPING IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. A BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WHILE TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE ALL POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND EXISTING CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SO...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN QUITE STRONG FOR JULY. IT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP BY MONDAY AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE BEST PVA OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY SO SHALLOW CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP. STORM MOTION WILL HAVE A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
THE UPPER WAVE VEERS THE BL FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE ABLE TO
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH STORMS STILL POSSIBLE
INLAND AS WELL SINCE ANY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER WAVE ON TUESDAY WE FIND OURSELVES
WITH VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL FLOW...SWRLY AT 10KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THAT ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE
VERY WEAK. THE WRF EVEN GOES SO FAR AS TO SHOW NO QPF AREA-WIDE. NOT
QUITE READY TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SLIGHT CHANCE/ISO COVERAGE
SHOULD DO THE TRICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE LEADS TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SURFACE
FEATURE...WHILE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WHILE THE 500MB RIDGE
BLOSSOMS...THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DRIVE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
IN THIS REGIME...AND AM GOING TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF FOR THE
WED/THU TIMEFRAME. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND WPC ANALYZES A
TROUGH...LIKELY AN ENHANCED VERSION OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...ON
FRIDAY. WILL SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH BETTER
CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
VALUES. DECREASING POP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WKND AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES BENEATH THE GROWING RIDGE...BUT AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY STILL SET OFF ISOLATED
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

AS FAR AS THE HEAT GOES...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO CONTINUE THIS ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING A LOT OF RECENTLY. HIGHS AND
LOWS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY RISE
TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE ON FRI/SAT WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE THE FACT THAT WE BARELY GET TO OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMP. EVEN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD GET SOME
REASONABLY STRONG CELLS WITH MODERATE DOWNDRAFT CAPE... BUT AGAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE
RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE
PRESENT 15 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND 3
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY
AND SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY DUE TO THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A STRONG BUT ALSO WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL
GLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. THIS UPPER
FEATURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OFFSET BY A BIT OF A RETROGRESSION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
OR WAVES.

LONG TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL
OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH KEEPS TYPICAL SW
SUMMERTIME FLOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS
MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTN/EVE AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AND CAUSES SLIGHT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SE SWELL MOSTLY MASKED BY A SW WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL


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