Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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546
FXUS62 KILM 131501
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS VERY DRY AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS JUST
STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO NC. SKIES WILL REMAIN FREE OF
CLOUDS TODAY BUT EVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE ARCTIC AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM 3 AM SATURDAY:
FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION HAS NOT YET REACHED
THE WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 25 KT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE DESPITE
WINDS OF 25 KT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL



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