Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.