Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 010752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY
OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N
ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK
LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE
MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO
20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS
AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8





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