Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 302219
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT DRYING
WILL COMMENCE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRATUS DECK COVERING THE CWA THIS MORNING
FINALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BUT IS STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IN
SCOPE. THIS LAYER HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES BUT NOW WE
MAY SEE READINGS RISE A BIT FASTER IN SPOTS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
HAS THINNED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT A LID ON CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WE WERE NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS EXCEPT POSSIBLY WELL INLAND WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THAT WE DO GET SOME SUN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AND ANY PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKLY WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. KEEPING IN SLIGHT OT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
BRUSHES BY THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS TODAY WILL VEER
TO THE SE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KTS...WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND 3 OR 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND
COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43


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