Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 020245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME
IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM
FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AS RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS AND LINGERING FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GIVEN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN PER LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE
KEPT WITH TEMPO MVFR. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY
AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM
200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL



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