Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 272314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL ACCELERATE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN
THE COLUMN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CRISTOBAL...PRESENTLY AROUND 375 MILES OFFSHORE OF
CAPE FEAR MOVING NNE NOW. SWELLS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
RIPPLE AND SWIRL OUR SURF-ZONE FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS SETTLE TO A NORMAL LATE AUGUST BERMUDA HIGH REGIME.
GREAT NEWS AS THE RIP THREAT WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
PEAK OF LABOR DAY POPULOUS AND BEACH ACTIVITIES.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL UNDERGO CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING CRISTOBAL PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A LIGHT OFFSHORE MAINLY WEST WIND TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE AND INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR
SKY SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO EARLY THU AND
PATCHES OF GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY VERY EARLY.
MINS SETTLING INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE FA THRUOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN AND DOMINATE ACROSS THE SE STATES THIS
PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES A STAB AT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD...BUT NEVER MAKES IT DUE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH BASICALLY STOPS ALL FORWARD MOMENTUM
OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT. ONLY AFFECT FOR THE ILM CWA WILL BE
POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND ALSO LIKELY ONLY AFFECTING THE ILM NC
COUNTIES AT ITS FURTHEST SOUTHWARD PUSH. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS ILLUSTRATE THESE CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SREF HAS NOW INDICATED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRI WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE ATM WILL BE WARMING. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH
THE FA LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 90S FOR BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE HOTTER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT INTO
SUN AS SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST EXTENDS
SOUTH. DEEP MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION. ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE SAT AND SUN BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER EAST NEXT WEEK AND STARTS TO WEAKEN.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPS PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON MON AND REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH
DAILY SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH HELPING GENERATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL PATTERN ARE ILL DEFINED SO
ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AREAS IMPACTED
BY MULTIPLE STORMS DURING ANY GIVEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THOUGH HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE...IT WILL KEEP ITS PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THUS NOT CREATING ANY AVIATION
IMPACTS. THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS QUITE DRY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES AND THUS WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND
FOG. ON THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI AND SAT.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 714 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE AT INLET ENTRANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FALLING TIDE.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRESIDE WITH THE HURRICANE FAR TO
THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS.
WINDS TENDING TO WEST 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL
LOOSENS IT`S PRESSURE PATTERN GRIP ON THE 0-20NM WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NE
THIS PERIOD...PULLING WELL OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE HIGH SEAS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL BE LOOKING AT
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL MAINLY
YIELD OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THU...BECOMING SW 10-15 KT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THU AFTN AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
TEMPORARILY STALL AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE WIND 10-15 KT FRI INTO
FRI NITE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE THU AS THE
BACKSWELL FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTS THE AREA WATERS. MODELS HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SUBSIDE SEAS TOO QUICKLY WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT
TAKE THIS ROUTE...ESPECIALLY AFTER CHURNING AND BURNING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE BAHAMAS. LOOKING AT SIG
SEAS TO START AT 2 TO 4 FT...POSSIBLY A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE
FEAR DURING THE 1ST PART OF THU. SIG. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
3 FT THU NIGHT THRU FRI.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AND DEVELOPMENT OF
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. SPEEDS
MAY REACH SOLID 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AT NIGHT WILL
BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY AS
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...DOUGH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



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