Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 311940
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
340 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled conditions can be expected the next couple of days. On
Friday Tropical Storm Hermine will move into the area bringing the
potential for gusty winds and heavy rainfall. High pressure builds
in for the Labor Day weekend with pleasant conditions over the
weekend that will continue well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...A multi-centered upper low will lift north
across the area through the period. While inland rain chances
should wane overnight SREF quite jazzed about rain continuing
along the coast. Given the ample moisture in place and continued
forcing from the upper low this seems plausible. The HRRR shows a
bit of a lull but rain returning overnight. Low will be in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Unsettle weather continues on Thursday with
deep moisture in place and cold front dropping into western zones.
Overall expecting a day not too dissimilar from today but with rain
chances more uniform across the region rather than favoring the
coast.

Tropical Storm Hermine will then affect the area with conditions
deteriorating as Friday progresses. There have been some major
shifts in guidance as of late and this trend continued in the 12Z
suite, with some agreement that`s hard to ignore. This makes ranking
the threats from the storm hard to ascertain. Heavy rain seems the
most likely but the westward trend could really ramp up the wind and
tornado threat as a whole but also further inland than previously
anticipated. Even the inland track portrayed by guidance should not
inhibit its ability to maintain strength as there will be some
baroclinic forces and pretty tremendous upper level jet ventilation
going on.  The storm really looks to be congealing on satellite
which should help improve model performance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Period begins on the breezy side but the
region should be drying out as Hermine (or its remnants) exit to the
northeast. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding track and strength
of the system but this should have minimal impact on the forecast
period. Surface high builds in from the north over the weekend and
for the start of next week. At the same time 5h ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico will be expanding north, settling over the southeast
during the early to middle parts of next week. This scenario would
lead to an abundance of deep dry air and mid level subsidence.
Canadian High will keep temperatures below climo at the start of the
period but air mass modification and increasing subsidence will lead
to temps warming near to above climo by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...A surface low extends across eastern Georgia to the
offshore waters just south of Charleston. North of this low
pressure area a moist easterly low-level wind is bringing in
showers, some quite heavy, off the ocean between Myrtle Beach and
Wilmington. This area of showers should continue to expand
westward for the next several hours as a mid-level low moves
eastward off the South Carolina coastline. Temporary MVFR
conditions are possible for the remainder of the afternoon at ILM,
CRE, and MYR. Although isolated showers will exist farther inland
the odds of visibility restrictions are less.

Tonight the surface trough will consolidate into a low pressure
area east of Myrtle Beach. Northerly winds should induce low
ceilings to develop inland and possibly at ILM late. LIFR to
possibly VLIFR conditions are possible for a few hours around
daybreak.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Tropical storm conditions are possible Friday
afternoon through early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Small upper low and surface wave to pass
by overnight. Winds will remain very light and remain onshore.
Gaston swells have become minimal with only a 2.5 ft wave observed
at 41013 though peak power still just over 10 seconds.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Light N winds behind the near term wave will
turn back to the south and increase with the approach of a cold
front. Seas to build but probably no worse than SCEC. However, tough
to rule out tropical headlines behind in effect due to Hermine. This
system will have its most pronounced effects late Friday into Friday
night. Wind forecast is highly uncertain due to recent large
westward shifts in model guidance, now all favoring an inland track.
Forecast may change considerably following NHC conference call and
the upcoming 5pm advisory.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Treacherous conditions, both wind and
wave, will be ongoing at the start of the period as Hermine or its
remnants move away from the area. A gradual improvement in
conditions is anticipated later Sat and Sat night as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. Northerly winds will drop from
around 20 kt at the start of the period to 10 kt or less Sun and
Mon. Seas will follow a similar trend, falling from 8 to 10 ft Sat
AM 2 to 4 ft Sun and 2 to 3 ft Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...TRA



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