Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 242330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will move across the area Wednesday
morning. A cold front will move through Thursday bringing a
chance of showers, followed by seasonably chilly air over the
weekend. A secondary cold front will bring colder temperatures
Monday before temperatures bounce back to seasonable levels on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...A dry atmospheric column will continue
overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. Between
04-09Z winds in the lowest 1500 feet of the atmosphere should
become very light, enhancing the depth of the radiational
inversion. I have tweaked forecast lows down a little,
otherwise no changes. Discussion from 300 PM follows...

Unlimited visibility tonight. Early downslope wind-flow in the
evening will counterbalance near perfect long-wave radiation
escape, but after midnight as winds taper, most locations across
NE SC and SE NC will dip through the 40s. Very late tonight
cirrus from the west may impinge the area, but it`s thinness
should have little to no bearing on temperature curves
overnight. Early evening gusts seaward at the beaches and ICW
will too, settle late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Chief weather headline this time period
reads `Mild sunshine Wednesday followed by showery conditions
Thursday`. Amping SW winds will keep the coast and coastal
interior cooler, but look for widespread 70s well inland
Wednesday afternoon across NE SC and SE NC. Cirrus in the
afternoon could impact temperature trends after mid afternoon.
Progressive cold front will sweep across the region Thursday.
SW-W low-level wind much of Thursday prior to late day frontal
passage will allow for mild temperatures amid the scattered
showers. QPF with system 0.05-0.20 inches with PWAT and
moisture above 700 MB limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Mid level troughiness to remain a semi
permanent feature in the east through at least the weekend. The
resulting downsloping westerly flow and cool advection will mean
rain-free conditions locally and temperatures just a few degrees shy
of climatology. On Monday the trough sharpens as energy bellies
through its southern side, then swinging the trough off the coast by
Tuesday. Monday thus appears to bring chillier conditions than the
rest of the period but recovery will already be underway by Tuesday.
If there are some minor rain chances to be had it will be on Monday
with the front and upper vort max.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Expect VFR through the valid TAF period as weak high
pressure continues to build into the area. West-southwest winds
around 5 to 10 kts will prevail through the period, increasing to 10
to 15 kts along the coast Wednesday afternoon.

Extended outlook...A cold front will move through the area Thursday,
with isolated showers and brief MVFR possible. Otherwise expect
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... |
As of 630 PM Tuesday...The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to
expire on schedule as winds and seas continue to diminish.
Nearshore wind speeds as measured at buoys and piers are several
knots below previous forecasts while conditions out at Frying
Pan Shoals buoy are very close to forecast. Discussion from 300
PM follows...

Buoy platforms and coastal sensor trends suggest Advisory flags
may be allowed to drop by or before 6 PM this evening. Easing
wind trend will result in coincident wave height decreases as
well...to 2-4 feet overnight. Heights will not drop quickly
since a noticeable ESE swell propagates ashore.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Brief improvement on marine winds but
that`s about it. Amplifying SW winds will precede a progressive
cold front, and it looks like by late Wednesday night an
Advisory may be needed from then through Thursday even for
25-30 KT wind gusts, highest offshore, better inshore. Seas will
peak midday-ish Thursday 5-9 feet, highest outer portion. The
dominant wave periods running between 6-8 seconds. Isolated
TSTMS may be confined to the western wall of the Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...NWrly post-frontal flow on Friday will
turn to more westerly over the weekend as the upper trough
prepares to re- amplify. This will bring a W wind over much of
the weekend. Wind speeds may spend most of the period in the 15
to 20 kt range but wave shadowing will be a big factor.
Currently WNA guidance is hesitant to bring 5 ft seas into the
20nm zones save for a small portion right out near Frying pan
shoals so 3-5ft will be the fcst for AMZ252 but all others
capped at 2-4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL



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